Sri Lanka – the calm after the storm?

By Luxman Arvind

(May 12, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian) A whole series of elections that took centre stage in the socio-political life of the Island in the past 2 years are over – at least momentarily. Sri Lanka, noted for creating world records - mostly for the wrong reasons - may have created one more of a virtual non-stop caravan of elections.

The 20 million population of 2 major races (and - now one more that insists on being identified by religion) – were subject to a whole series of elections. First the Provincial - staggered in various parts of the country - to be followed up by the Presidential and finally on April 08 the General Elections that chose 196 MPs to the country’s legislature of 225 of them. Save the last, the others were held in the background of the 30-year deadly war with the LTTE Tigers. Little wonder the last, which was the General Election, saw less than 50% of the election-weary going to the polls in the Sinhala South. Around 80% kept away in the Tamil-majority North. One time PM and now Opposition MP Ranil Wickramasinghe is in record noting “the Government does not enjoy the people’s mandate” because more than half did not go to vote at all – and, many would agree. That it gobbled up a large portion of the country’s meagre resources does not appear to have worried the rulers, the ruled - nor the opposition that is perceived to be the watchdog of people’s rights in democracies. That is because what goes as the disunited Opposition here is somewhat grotesque, deformed and lacking in inspired direction. What more - many of those identified as firebrands in the opposition - once raking up the people’s telling issues - are now in the front ranks of government offering palpably unconvincing replies absolving the regime from very the same charges they themselves made against the government. Stranger than fiction may not be a description out of place. Curiously – some of those in the front ranks of the opposition now have just returned there after a brief sojourn in government ranks – a somewhat familiar spectacle in what goes as democracy here. Musical chairs if you say, you are spot on.

Whether it is the calm before or after the storm will largely depend on who you are talking to in a country where political allegiance and opinion thereof is generally shared fifty fifty – so to say. I might add that it could well be about 75% of the population in the Sinhala-speaking South today. Tamil speaking North-East share with the rest of the country the pressing but so far unengaged concerns of a multitude of urgent issues – a stagnant economy; a growing unemployment volcano lead by College graduates and going into the hundreds of thousands of students; galloping Cost of Living of daily essentials of food and other items; lack of schooling and poor management of the nation’s education; near break-down of the country-wide medical system where infectious diseases like dengue have not been satisfactorily handled although the Health Minister concerned wants the country to think of him as the best in the world in the field. He tried to fool the country – not for the first time – but this time claiming he sat in that UN chair for Health Ministers of the world. The truth is this position comes by rotation. But the man massaged his own ego at the tune of over Rs30 million of the poor people by inspiring the erection of giant billboards all over the country in a show of his dentures and insisting on this comical claim. The man will not be easily forgotten when his answer t to the dengue mosquito menace was to ask men and women to avoid dresses that show below the knee. To this learned man, that was how the mosquito can be avoided In the latest process of Cabinet appointments this man, had the audacity to think he should have been PM. The President did right when the man was denied the Health Ministry – very lucrative for him say his opponents that is rocked by scandals of poor quality drugs, equipment etc., the source of the rackets centering around him.

The focus of the nation, however, is in the matter of settling the National Question centred. The President and his ubiquitous brothers do not appear to be in much of a hurry in addressing the vexed issue – a veritable hot potato though it formed an important part of the high-profile Mahinda Chintanaya Manifesto. That the regime has been at the helm of affairs for quite sometime seems immaterial here. Unsurprisingly, in consequence, the unity that the country badly needs may come more from action from outside the country than the labour and resolve that is required from the leadership in the regime. A grim reminder of 1987. That the prolonged absence of an acceptable resolution of this took the more belligerent youth in the Tamil side to land, sea and air warfare against the State for 3 decades does not seem to have hit home very much. Neither has the fact that it sapped enormous resources of the poor 3rd world country for long dented the bleeding hearts of those who headed the State since 1994. I might be suspected of mischief if I was to state the obvious - all of them showed undue regard to accumulate gains the wrong way. The worst being inflating the value of arms purchases that, by in itself, has created a Class of nouveau riche with assets and investments spread in many parts of the globe. It is an old joke when the government presented a list of arms purchases to a visiting donor group they mockingly asked "This is excessive. Are you ordering for the LTTE as well?"

Neighbouring India, whose political landscape is often influenced in the voting patterns of the giant South Indian Sate of Tamilnadu, now gives indications it has neither the time nor the patience to allow the Rajapakse regime to procrastinate anymore. India has already called for a series of steps to enable GoSL to settle the Tamil issue – the first one of which is a high-profile Conference in Delhi due May 10-11 titled “Taking the Sri Lanka Peace process forward” where among important matters listed for discussion within the dozens of experts and scholars from both sides is one on the expansion of the 13th Amendment. Clearly, a gathering of intellectuals of this import and with this title should have been held in Sri Lana under the auspices of GoSL. Why in India and at a time immediately after the President has taken over? Many wonder if this endeavour is in line with India counselling Sri Lanka behind closed doors to address the problem which the Rajapakse administration was so far shy to attempt – seeking time and patience to “sell” this to the the indifferent Sinhala electorate. With her own General Elections due in 2011 Delhi’s patience seems to be running out. It is Smt. Nirupama Rao, the current Foreign Secretary, who came here immediately after the President’s victory who will inaugurate this Conference under the aegis of the Observer Research Foundation. It is widely believed in her visit she conveyed to Rajapkse Delhi expects him to keep his word not to delay a settlement any longer. The message simply put is “it is time to act - now that we have given you time so far” That the Conference is called immediately after Rajapakse taking over for the 2nd time after convincingly trouncing the opposition in April 08 contains its own subtle message to President Rajapakse. The scene is chilling and recalls Indira Gandhi telling JRJ’s Special Emissary Minister Lalith Athulathmudali “Your President enjoys 5/6th majority in Parliament. So what is his problem in solving the Tamil issue?” Equally significant is the declared intention of the Tamil National Alliance they are prepared to “fully cooperate” with the Rajapakse administration in the quest, once more on their part, for an early and durable peace. The TNA backing Rajapakse’s opponent in the last Presidential race - notwithstanding. India’s message to Sampanthan and the TNA is that the intimidation and threats to the Tamil political representatives are no more with the Tigers gone and that they should engage in much give-and-take with the Rajapakse administration to arrive at an acceptable solution. The TNA on their part are ready to discharge their duties as Sampanthan states “if the President and his government are genuine in their search for peace and unity they will find that we will not be found wanting.”

On the economic front the performance of the regime is not at all inspiring. Despite all the hubris the pledge to the IMF loan of US$2.6 billion was obtained as” oxygen” to the gasping economy. The IMF, after all, is the last resort to countries in real financial trouble and no where else to go. IMF prescriptions are often bitter – because the patient, at any rate, comes to them one step away from the grave. The IMF expects the truth from the borrower. You can “manufacture figures” to get over the immediate problem – as Greece did and is now in deep trouble. Our 3rd tranche due in February is delayed because, inter alia, the deficit we pledged to bring down below 7% remains well above that figure and growing. The government is forced to take unpopular steps as the pole-vaulting Kurunegala Johnny from the UNP is learning with the stiff increase of Cooking Gas and Bread prices already announced – rather hesitatingly. Fuel increases, bus and rain fare increases are likely. That time to face hard realities – postponed so many time – has arrived and cannot be placed under the carpet anymore.

The President has realized the stunning cost of fish, eggs, vegetables and other daily essential require professional management and cannot be realized by pretender-economists like the man who mis-managed the Trade Ministry last. Getting students to pass exams they are not competent in by leaking Question Papers obtained by bizarre cheating from conniving examiners and the running of a key ministry are different things. It is not an exaggeration to state most Ministers in the present Cabinet are no more than square pegs in round holes. People wonder what management experience or learning does Wimal Weerawansa have to be saddled with vital ministries needed for the economic growth of the country. The man is known not to have even managed a “bulath kade” in his life. It is clueless and ineffcient ministers in this regime - in the near hundreds - who are an utter waste and the country's problem. If empty rhetoric, threats and intimidation, the capacity for rubble rousing are the features Rajapakse seeks as answers to overcome the country’s vast problems in the economy and so on – well, he has’nt done too badly, has he in appointing Weerawansa as a senior minister?

President Rajapakse is a cunning political animal and survivor. But what he requires is much more than cunning and magic. He needs to deliver tangible results in many fronts. Those appear to be in woeful short supply – as do many essentials in the kitchen.