India as a global power

It needs to be firm with China, Pakistan

By Air Marshal R.S. Bedi

(February 05, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) some time now, India is being projected as an emerging power on the global scene. But at the same time, forecasts that India would in foreseeable future catch up with China, however, seem a bit hard to comprehend, considering the gap that exists between the two.

Notwithstanding, India together with China will certainly dominate the economic scenario of the 21st century, leading to the swing of pendulum of economic power from the West to the East.

As of now, India has emerged as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Economic growth, all by itself, despite being an engine of power does not make a country a global or a major power. A nation has to be technologically competent and militarily deterrent for becoming a comprehensive major power.

Despite 60 years of Independence, we continue to remain dependent on foreign technology and military wherewithal. We have little or no worthwhile indigenous military industrial base, particularly in the private sector. We continue to rely on foreign powers for technology as well as the much needed strategic weapons.

Remaining mostly dependent on others for our security needs and the military wherewithal hardly entitles us to great power status. No nation can aspire to be a major power by being at the mercy of others who can armtwist you at critical junctures in keeping with their own policy constraints.

All this, because we didn’t invest sufficiently in R&D nor did we involve the private sector to join hands in this strategically important area. Our capabilities are nowhere in consonance with our aspirations. Look at China. It has formidable armed forces, comprising largely indigenous production.

We desperately need guns, missiles, ships, submarines, aircrafts and variety of other military wherewithal. The politician as well as the bureaucrat is much too cautious to pursue acquisitions, having burnt their fingers in past corrupt deals.

The national leadership has to display more courage and better awareness of strategic environment and help the armed forces resurrect themselves in keeping with the needs of the time.

Modernisation and specific-to-task modern hardware are urgently needed to match the future battle scenarios of a decade ahead at least. It takes years to build the armed forces. Our armed forces also need urgent reforms. Organisational restructuring and doctrinal changes have to be conceptualised in keeping with the strategically altered future context. Where does India really stand in the politico-strategic milieu with this sort of national vision?

India has to go a long way before reaching anywhere near being a great power. Today, we are unable to assert ourselves even as a South Asian regional power with constant challenges from some of our obsessively hostile neighbours.

With the US emerging as the sole super power, struggle for creating spheres of influence as hitherto is passé’. In fact, it has ushered in an era of sustained global peace. That’s how, despite many regional conflagrations, none ended up in a large-scale war with international ramifications.

The same cannot be said in regard to the Indo-Pak regional context. Any conflict between these two has international consequences. The US is bound to tilt towards Pakistan, which is its closest ally in fighting the Taliban-al-Quida combine along the Pak-Afghan border.

It does n’t seem India has learnt any lesson from its past experience. Are we ready to take on Pakistan that is getting vast military and economic aid from the US and yet disregards it totally in terrorising India?

The Americans are fully aware of it and yet maintain deliberate silence. India has to neutralise this sub-conventional threat which Pakistan has perpetuated under nuclear parity with impunity.

India has not been able to evolve any deterrent response so far to Pak machinations. In fact, our government finds itself literally helpless when it comes to the question of responding to Pakistan’s repeated belligerent acts. 26/11 is the most recent example of this helplessness.

In Afghanistan too, despite confirmed information from US sources of the ISI hand in bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul, India’s response was totally inadequate, to say the least. India’s lie-low attitude and defensive mindset has only encouraged Pakistan further, as was seen in yet another fidayeen attack in Srinagar a few days back where Pak handlers. like 26/11, were observed giving continuous instructions.

A smaller and much weaker Pakistan has thus become a great challenge and a debilitating factor in India’s rise as a great power. From all indications, it appears that the Pak army will keep up its offensive till it is able to avenge Bangladesh, regardless of the government stand on Indo-Pak relations.

India finds itself all the more uncomfortable when it comes to facing China’s belligerence and assertiveness. China has been subjecting India to ever-increasing diplomatic and military pressure for quite some time now.

However remote, China sees a sort of challenge from India and hence its policy of containing it as a subaltern state in the back waters of Indian Ocean by devious means. It ensures that Pakistan remains competitively armed to fight its proxy war against India in order to keep it embroiled in regional conflicts and impede its over-all progress as a major power.

It has also established military and maritime facilities in India’s neighbourhood and endeavour to wean India’s immediate neighbours by means of economic, military and political succour.

Whilst China seeks a multi-polar world, it wants a uni-polar Asia and hence its policy of downsizing India. Our lack of farsightedness and lackadaisical attitude in planning our future does n’t auger well as a power in the offing.

China makes an effective use of its military prowess in running its foreign and strategic policies. It is building major military bases and strengthening its defences in Tibet. It conducts major military exercises in close proximity of LAC with a view to show its might and intimidate neighbours.

We have literally lost count of China’s incursions into Indian territory, especially in Arunachal Pradesh. The MEA’s mild responses only make India look weak. China will keep the pressure on India without resolving the border issue at present.

It would rather wait till it is in a position to offer India a fait accompli. Till then China will continue to follow a dual policy of maintaining strategic stability coupled with aggressive posturing. Any solution without territorial concession from India at present will only enhance India’s stature as an Asian power.

To keep up the diplomatic pressure on India, China by issuing loose sheet visas to the residents of J&K went on to suggest that the state was a disputed territory.

Also, in a blatant show of assertiveness, China promptly detained 21 Indians on charges of diamond smuggling the very next day after India arrested three Chinese engineers for alleged culpability in the death of 41 Indians in a fire at BALCO. India must create counter pressures by fine tuning its diplomatic and military posturing but effective diplomacy and assertive postures are possible only when duly backed by appropriate military prowess and political will.

India’s image as a soft state is incongruous with its major power aspirations. Such a tag has come to stick because of our repeated meek responses towards our adversaries. India’s passive responses which have deep roots in spiritually prone Indians and their culture are inconsistent in today’s pragmatic international environment.

When it comes to national interest, there can be no alternative to firmness and deterrent response as the Chinese have shown repeatedly. Only then can India fit in the mould of a major power with a permanent seat on the UNSC table.

(The writer is a former Director General, Defence Planning Staff of the Govt. of India)