Presidential Election as a Referendum?

“There will not be a presidential election for another six years and the outcome of this election will decide how Sri Lanka overcomes the scars of war. Tamil voters in the north-east will announce to the world their preferences.”
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By Thomas Johnpulle

(January 23, London, Sri Lanka Guardian) The international community is desirous of an end to Sri Lanka’s ethnic strife. Now that the war has ended, they want tangible proof of reconciliation so that they can leave Sri Lanka to its able leaders and voters. Going by this the international community is keen on this election. This is the first ever election in an atmosphere of peace compared to the elections held from 1982 to 2005. Tamil voters’ response will be very keenly watched by the international community. Contrary to views expressed by hardline elements, the international community has ceased to support separatism, racial bargaining and race centred power sharing in the post-war era. What the international community emphasise now is reconciliation; reconciliation within one country.

However, the Tamil Eelam struggle is far from over. Ardent supporters still canvass for support for the Tamil Eelam struggle through peaceful means. During the last couple of months three (3) referenda were held in Norway, France and Canada where almost all the voters overwhelmingly expressed their desire for an independent nation – Tamil Eelam. As explained above this is not what the international community wants from Sri Lanka. Consequently there is a mismatch between what the Tamil Diaspora wants and what the international community wants. This is why the international community has assigned the decision making power to Sri Lanka’s Tamils who are at the centre of the controversy.

The international community cannot force the Sri Lankan government to hold a referendum in the North-East to assess the support for a separate Tamil nation. If asked, such a request would be rejected outright. Instead they are going to use the presidential election as a de facto referendum.

More than the winner of the election, the international community is after the ideology that wins in the north-east. Not only the Tamil national Alliance (TNA) but also the entire Tamil Diaspora is very keen on the poll.

The three levels

There are three (3) main groups at play. The Rajapaksha camp is promising a political solution in the manifesto but does not agree to TNA demands. The Fonseka campaign does not promise a political solution but agrees with TNA demands. TNA demands are so controversial that no one wishes to talk about them in public. If the publicly available demands are considered, they are all about temporary relief to Tamils who suffered due to the war. Neither candidate accepts Tamil aspirations, namely Tamil Nationality, Tamil Right of Self-determination and Tamil Sovereignty.

Another candidate, Karunaratna, promises to grant Tamil aspirations. Strangely he is not Tamil but a Sinhalese. Along with him a TNA MP also contests on a similar ideology; he is Sivajilingam.

The international community will be keenly following the voting pattern to see whether the demand for Tamil aspirations is still valid. If the voters are found to have rejected these, that would mean the international community’s reconciliation model will work smoothly.

On the other hand, if the Tamil voters in the North-East give an overwhelming majority to the candidates canvassing on Tamil aspirations, the international community will have to change its reconciliation formula to accommodate specific Tamil aspirations.

The international community is after yet another signal in order to evaluate the ability to reconcile. It is a well accepted fact that Tamils suffered the most in the war. Tamils must forgive and forget the war atrocities so that the two communities can reconcile. It is also a fact that the Sri Lanka Army is going to be in the North-East for good. Therefore Tamils must not only be willing to forgive and forget, they must also be able to extend their support to the army. A vote for the two main candidates is a vote for reconciliation, compromise, co-operation with the armed forces and forgiveness.. However, a vote for the candidates who openly canvass for Tamils’ right of self-determination means essential power sharing to a level that has not been discussed in Sri Lanka. It comes closer to a federal model if not exceeds it.

The two narrow choices of main candidates really put the pressure on the voter. Will the voters support the two main candidates or vote for the candidates gunning for Tamils’ right of self-determination? It is the first time this will be answered in Sri Lanka after 1977. In 1977 Tamils overwhelmingly approved Tamil Nationality and Tamil right of self-determination. In 2009 the Diaspora also approved it in Norway, France and Canada. Now they await a decision in Sri Lanka.

War crimes

Sections of the Tamil Diaspora are pressing the international community to instigate war crimes trials for the President, former Army Commander and the Defence Secretary. However, either owing to fear or due to irrelevance, Tamils in Sri Lanka didn’t have such a demand. This has puzzled the international community. However, media suppression has made it difficult to gauge the true ground situation.

The election will be an ideal opportunity for Tamil voters to decide how important it is to punish alleged ‘war crimes’. Is it the most important matter or is it less important than reconciliation?

Once again both the two main candidates are blamed for war crimes. And the two candidates who support Tamil Aspirations are canvassing to reject ‘war criminals’.

A vote for either Rajapaksha or Fonseka means a vote for reconciliation in preference to war crimes trials. A vote for Karunaratna or Sivajilingam means that a war crimes trial is the priority of Tamils.

Accordingly the international community will proceed.

Not in another six years

There will not be a presidential election for another six years and the outcome of this election will decide how Sri Lanka overcomes the scars of war. Tamil voters in the north-east will announce to the world their preferences.

1. Do they prefer 1977 Tamil Aspirations as approved by the Tamil Diaspora or do they prefer reconciliation?

2. Are they as keen as the Diaspora in punishing alleged ‘war crimes’ or are they more into reaching out to the armed forces?

It will also be interesting to see how the Tamil Diaspora will receive the decision of Tamils in Sri Lanka. If the international community is convinced that the priorities and desires of the Tamil Diaspora and Tamils in Sri Lanka are different, that will change how they entertain Tamil Diaspora demands. It is also a credibility check.

International community has its own agenda in regards to Sri Lanka. As per John Kerry’s report, USA cannot afford to neglect Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka is strategically located in a region with immense economic and defence significance. It is better for the USA and the West to patch up with Sri Lanka than continue to push for unpopular deliverables. Now the USA and the West is waiting for the tick of approval from Tamils in Sri Lanka. Although the West has many times emphasised their impartiality between the two main candidates, the real concern for them is not the two main candidates but the other two candidates – Karunaratna and Sivajilingam – who propose what the Tamil Diaspora is proposing. If Tamil voters approve this view, the West will be in an awkward position. If Tamils reject them, they are also rejecting the ‘yes’ vote of the Tamil Diaspora for a separate Tamil nation.

It is the noble duty of every Tamil to exercise their franchise. The election has already brought men and women together from all ethnicities. They were divided for three decades. In short, the election is the first step in national reconciliation.