Is the Nationalist Vote Divided?

“Nationalist voters seem to appreciate this fact very well. That is why Sinhala ultra communal minded parties like the Sinhala Urumaya, Sinhala Boomiputera Party and the New Sinhala Urumaya failed to gain any mileage at the elections. Knowing this very well some of them gave up contesting altogether.”
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By Thomas Johnpulle

(January 20, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) Various unsubstantiated theories have emerged about kingmakers. Kingmakers are the voters. There are no racial demarcations when it comes to voters. A popular erroneous theory suggests that the ‘Sinhala’ vote is divided right from the middle and it is the ‘Tamil’ vote that will tilt the scales. Truth cannot be further than this assumption. To understand the real currents at work one has to understand the mind of the average Sri Lankan ‘nationalist’.

The Mind of the Nationalist

The average Sri Lankan nationalist is a god fearing person who is reasonably religious. He/she wanted to win the war but was not willing to drench hands with blood. He/she wanted security but was reluctant to kill anyone. Therefore the average Sri Lankan nationalist contracted out the task to the armed forces. The task of allowing the armed forces do the job was assigned to the government. While the average Sri Lankan nationalist identified himself/herself with the nationalist government, he/she didn’t go to war. On the other hand he/she had a very loyal connection with the soldiers. When it comes to soldiers, his/her reaction was brotherly/sisterly love, concern, worry and empathy. Not nationalism!

These two apparently contradictory objectives define the average Lankan nationalist.
Going by this tendency, it is easy to understand why they separate nationalism from actual fighting. It went rather well for Sri Lanka. If people pushed the armed forces with direct ultra nationalism as it happened in Israel, 1960s Egypt, 1940s Soviet Union, 1970s Vietnam, 1980s Pakistan, etc., things would have ended in a severe state. This is why most Sri Lankan nationalists identify themselves with the President than with the Army Commander.. Nationalist vote base is mostly intact despite the Army Commander contesting against the President.

A striking example can prove this point beyond all doubt. In 2008 there was the North Central Provincial Council election. General Janaka Perera contested against the incumbent Chief Minister. By that time government had not won the war. The war was proceeding as it did for the past 26 years. There was nothing new. But the nationalist hype was there. It was expected that Janaka Perera who was undoubtedly the most popular army person to do very well.. In fact he has personally assured security in many villages in Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa. But people gave an overwhelming majority to the incumbent party although General Perera received the highest number of preference votes. Ruling party scored the highest ever victory in terms of percentage in the North Central Province ever.

If it was Israel or any of the other examples above, things would have been the opposite.

Here is another example to make things clear. Nationalism in Sri Lankan politics has a very long history. It was Sri Lankan nationalism that won in 1947 and 1956. Were they even remotely associated with military attainments? No, not at all!

All this means that in Sri Lanka nationalism is not tied to military attainments.

The truth about the JVP

JVP identified this hybrid mentality very well. It followed this mentality into a strange hybrid, so to speak. JVP is a leftist party but unlike other leftist parties around the word, it doesn’t object to war and nationalism! It wanted to have the best of both worlds, the left and the right. But that split the JVP into two; one economically and politically socialist; the other economically and politically more mixed. These two were identified as the JVP and the NFF.

It must be emphasised that the JVP did contest recent elections and there is no indication whatsoever that it gained any nationalist advantage. In fact it lost a large chunk of its vote base. This is due to the JVP divorcing from the nationalist camp.

Another relevant issue is the trend in soldier families. As we know it’s the poor boy and girl who fought the cruel war on both sides. So theoretically they should find JVP appealing. But the contrary happened. Due to JVP’s antagonism with the families with armed forces since the war began soldier families distanced themselves from JVP politics. Even now JVP politics is considered ‘rebellious’ and is shunned by the disciplinarians in the armed forces.

It is the same JVP which has lost the nationalist hype that is backing the General today. Therefore the JVP does not bring any nationalist votes to the party either.

The Power of Being Multiethnic

Sri Lankan security forces are multiethnic. It is false to call them Sinhala Buddhists although the majority are Sinhala Buddhists. One only needs to look at the ‘war heroes’ to know for sure that there are Christians, Muslims and Tamils in security forces. Their contribution cannot be measured by mere numbers because not all soldiers are equal. Some engage in higher impact activities than the others. For instance deep space operations of the Special Forces had a disproportionately larger contribution from Tamil and Muslim soldiers. Intelligence gathering is another crucial area. The published list of intelligence operatives killed by the LTTE during the ceasefire time is ample evidence of strong Tamil contribution to the war effort. The contribution of these elements was obviously crucial and critical to the outcome of the war.

Nationalist voters seem to appreciate this fact very well. That is why Sinhala ultra communal minded parties like the Sinhala Urumaya, Sinhala Boomiputera Party and the New Sinhala Urumaya failed to gain any mileage at the elections. Knowing this very well some of them gave up contesting altogether. If they couldn’t win by running alone when the war hype was at the peak, they may not win again.

All in all, it is foolhardy to expect that the nationalist vote is divided. It certainly has reduced but not significantly divided. Their strength cannot be measured by internet surveys, disparities in number of blog comments or number of facebook visitors. That hype may embrace a very small percentage of people in a small geographical area. But the stubborn truth is out there.