Business community perturbed by the ultra-left gaining ground and election violence

By Thomas Johnpulle

(January 24, London, Sri Lanka Guardian) Political party leaders must leash their violent activists immediately. Otherwise this is chasing away and dissuading both foreign and local investors. For business to thrive, the political process must be peaceful. Ending of the war has given hope of peace but if violent individuals are still allowed to run riot in our streets, that dashes all hope of peace. It doesn’t matter who disturbs peace – terrorists, subversives, overly aggressive and violent trade unionists or political activists. One may argue that violence has always been part of Sri Lankan elections. True, but that was less of a concern when the country was at war. Now the biggest threat to peace is not the LTTE, but political parties that cannot rule their overly enthusiastic activists.

The much talked about ‘peace dividend’ does not fall from the heavens just because the war ended. It must be earned. Peace is a definite requirement to earn it. That is why maintaining peace and law and order cannot be taken lightly.

One fear after another

There is another great fear that has engulfed the business community. After about six years in the absence, the JVP has reasserted into the open with strong socialist views. Right or wrong, Sri Lanka has adopted the most successful economic model which is the open economic model. Any development must come from this model. However, what is considered development under capitalism is not considered development under socialism. The ultra-left also considers popular development as a threat to its policies. Surely the ultra-left is now worried about its future which is bleak as investments are set to grow and unemployment is set to reduce. In other words the relevance and attractiveness of socialist economic policy is going to reduce drastically. On top of that the ultra socialists are going to lose crowd as more and more people will get gainfully employed.

This fear has driven the ultra-left to hinder national development as we know it. They are back in political stages and show a dangerously high participation rate in a certain candidate’s election rallies. As a result, the business community is wary of the proposed change.

Swan swims Left while the Elephant walked Right!

The business community was generally comfortable with the United National Party (UNP). UNP is more capitalist while the JVP is an ultra socialist party. Nobody knows for sure the economic policy of their combined entity. The JVP tells its supporters about a socialist change while the UNP tells its crowd that it is going to be a capitalist change. Anyhow their official symbol, the Swan swims Left! Sections of the business community find it disturbing as the Elephant was always depicted to walk Right, not towards the Left.

Their second worry stems from the public face of the campaign. Two public faces have been appointed, namely, Hon Anura Kumara Dissanayaka and Hon Mangala Samaraweera – the grandson of late Hon Bernard Soysa, a communist stalwart. No one has been appointed from the UNP.

What’s more alarming is what would happen at the General Election that will follow?

At provincial elections, the percentage of votes and the number of seats of the ultra left parties reduced drastically. Even at the Southern Provincial Council election there is a reduction from the previous poll. However, this trend has already been reversed now.

Worrying signs

In the last couple of years there was a reduction in student protests, violence in universities, disruptive and destructive trade union action, mass and angry protests and other forms of violent acts that were frequent a decade ago. JVP’s reduced popularity resulted in this low intensity. However, these acts are beginning to rise up again along with the popularity of the JVP. If this new trend of gaining popularity continues, we may expect above mentioned activities once again on a frequent basis. Investors are wary of this already and keep a close watch of developments.

Another worrying factor is the inability of the UNP, JVP, TNA and SLMC to cohabit. JVP walked out the marriage with the ideologically closer SLFP and there is no chance it can remain bonded with the UNP. On ground, most business owners are UNPers while most trade unionists are JVPers. Historical, global and obvious antagonism between them will not allow any cohabitation. TNA has always kept away from joining governments and it is unlikely they will be permanent partners of any government. Sensitive issues relating to security always put TNA at loggerheads with the government. SLMC too find it difficult to be permanent partners of a coalition with the JVP and TNA. All this means chaos both in the case of victory and defeat of their common candidate. Hatred and disgust towards Rajapaksha can topple governments but cannot form governments. Investors’ concern is therefore well founded and they may resist change. Will the business community be passive observers? Only time will tell.