Former Joint Director, Intelligence Bureau, GoI
(January 20, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) War begets war. Peace does not always beget peace. Chanakya said: war and peace are integral parts of statesmanship. Both tricks should be played on the basis of historic necessity of policy priority of the State, the King’s and his subject’s interests. The saying is a part of practical foreign policy of ancient and modern times.The ashes of the First World War were pregnant with the seeds of the Second World War. End of the Second World War was heralded by the onset of much hyped Cold War; combination of wars of weapon race, nuclear proliferation, ideological conflict, and economic war and finally America’s bloody proxy-war in Afghanistan. In between Surrender of Japan and onset of Cold War there were America’s wars in the Koreas and Vietnam and ideological shadow dancing around Cuba.
Taking into consideration America’s interventionist policies in Latin America any student of history would develop doubts if the post-1945 super power is not really a warmongering nation and susceptible to intervening anywhere in the world in the ruse of securing the Free World and maintain USA’s status of a militarized imperialist super power. Another political philosophy that is on the threshold of acceptance by most nations, barring the Russian Federation and China, that the USA has inherited the imperial and colonial era right of intervening anywhere in the world in the ruse of defeating arms proliferation, removing dictators whose existence they do not like and of course Islamist jihad, fundamentalism and resurgence. Modern American history is replete with such instances. Necessarily or circumstantially some European and Asian countries join the US led coalition. In the changed global milieu India has also voiced support to America’s global war against terrorism (read Islamic Jihad).
The USA is now bogged down in the Arabian Peninsula, neighbouring Iraq, Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen.
Besides the countries shown in the map US involvement in Egypt, Libya and several West African countries is rated as hegemonistic in nature. Similar is the lesson drawn from US involvement the Balkans, creation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Kosovo from the post Cold War ruins of Yugoslavia. The US involvement in Georgia, Ukraine and Armenia etc countries still smack of the whiffs of the Cold War heat. Efforts to squeeze out Russian influence on the East European countries are palpably perceivable. The advancement of the US in the Central Asian countries, economic competition with China and Russia and tacit US support to the Islamic jihadis in Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia and Ossetia raise suspicion that America is still pursuing the policy of encirclement of the Russian Federation and isolate it from its former and existing federating units and nationalities. While we propose to discuss US and Chinese presence in the Central Asian Republics (CAR), for the purpose of this essay, we propose to discuss the aspects of US’s war against Islamic countries in the Middle East and in our geopolitical proximity in Afghanistan and Pakistan. India has strong geostrategic interest in the entire region including the Muslim countries in the CAR region.
The British and US interference in the Middle Eastern countries have become a saga of blatant political-military and espionage thrusts of the big powers on the disarrayed Arab and Persian peoples. Installation of Shah Pahlavi as the monarch of Iran and CIA (Operation Ajax) and MI6 clandestine operations to remove Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, simply because he was opposed to foreign intervention in Iran and he had nationalized Iran’s oil industry, was as bitter as the assassination of President Salvador Allende of Chile. This perverted energy policy of the US and its allies later brought about the Islamic revolution in Iran under Ayatollah Rohullah Khomeini in 1979. The Iran revolution instantly brought about Islamic resurgence from Morocco to Mindanao in the Philippines. Islam and Islamic countries had started undergoing revolutionary resurgence strengthening the concepts of Wahhabism and Salafism and unleashing the forces of militancy. Journey back to religious orthodoxy was buttressed by armed militancy as a perceived means of liberation of Islam from the perfidious modern forces represented by the Western Jewish and Christian powers.
If hunger for oil and energy had prompted the USA and UK to intervene in Iraq, it finally germinated the seeds of Shia Islamic jingoism. Around the same time another storm was brewing in the region. December 1979 witnessed another upheaval in Afghanistan, a neighbor of the USSR, Pakistan and Iran, direct Soviet intervention in the beleaguered country. USA’s desire to humble the Cold War rival USSR hustled Washington to get involved in the Afghan cauldron. It is propagated that the USA had intervened in Afghanistan by supporting the mujahideens after the Soviet attack. Now it is known, as revealed by Chalmers Johnson, a former naval officer and a Japan and Asia scholar, in his book Blowback: the Costs and Consequences of American Empire: “The USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan was deliberately provoked. In his 1996 memoirs, former CIA director Robert Gates writes that the American intelligence services actually began to aid the mujahudeen guerrillas in Afghanistan not after the Soviet invasion of that country, but six months before it. In a 1998 interview with the French weekly magazine Le Nouvel Oberservateur,former president Carter’s National Security Adviser,”Zbigniew Brzezinski, unambiguously confirmed Gates’s assertion…
“According to the official version of history,” Brzezinski told the Nouvel Oberservateur, “CIA aid to the mujahideen began during 1980, that is to say, after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan on December 24, 1979. But the reality, closely guarded until now, is completely otherwise: Indeed it was July 3, 1979, that President Carter signed the first directive for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. And that very day, I wrote a note to the president in which I explained to him that in my opinion this aid was going to induce a Soviet intervention.” (Italics by author).
When asked whether he regretted these actions, Brzezinski replied:
“Regret what? That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it? The day that the Soviets officially crossed the border, I wrote to President Carter, essentially: ‘We now have the opportunity of giving to the USSR its Vietnam War.” (Italics by author).
Without revisiting the prolonged mujahideen wars in Afghanistan, US, Saudi and Pakistani involvement, it can be stated that the US orchestration of secret warfare to invite the USSR in its Vietnam in Afghanistan has now turned to America’s third Vietnam. The US and UK’s invasion of Iraq was the second Vietnam. America’s fourth Vietnam is taking shape in Pakistan. It would seem that the eclipsed imperial power, the United Kingdom, and the successor imperialist power the USA, are prone to invoke wars simply not because of ideological divergences with the Communist giants, but mainly for securing their imperial outposts like Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam and energy rich nations like Iran and Iraq and strategic geopolitical entities in Venezuela, Panama. Mexico, Colombia, Guyana and Ecuador in South America and the oil and gas rich countries in Central Asia and the countries in the rim nations of Caspian Sea and Black Sea. Jumping from one war to another has characterized the successive US regimes and its allies like the UK and some of NATO members.
America’s Mission Afghanistan aimed at dismantling the USSR and score victory over the Cold War rival was impregnated with the seeds of another war: Islamic Jihad vs the US and other western powers, basically termed as the holy war against the Jews and the Christians. International strategic observers agree on the common point that original US involvement in Afghanistan followed by sudden withdrawal and Pakistani entrance via the Taliban train had created a cruces of Islamic jihad that witnessed birth of the al Qaeda, transformations of Taliban outlook as a religio-political philosophy of the resurgent Islamic groups that has created a crescent of upsurge of the Wahhabi-Salafi doctrines.
The al Qaeda-Taliban movements have attained the stature of new Islamic ideological bedrock almost like what Communism did to the global upsurge against western imperialism. The entire Islamic world has been influenced by this neo-religious resurgence, which believes in armed struggle for establishing the supremacy of Islam. These forces are also active in the European and American countries in addition to countries in Asia and Africa. There are tons of written books and documentations to prove that Osama bin Laden was patronized by the CIA, ISI and Royal Saudi intelligence agencies. The al Qaeda was born in the thick of Afghan thrust by USA, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in 1989. The Arab volunteers and associates had maintained distinct identity from the Pakistani tanzeems and regular troops and the seven- party lose coalition of the Afghan Mujahideens. Osama’s alienation from the USA and Saudi Arabia started soon after US’s involvement in Iraq-Kuwait war in 1990, on the ground that Saudi Arabia had allowed non-Islamic military troops to defile the holy land of the Prophet.
Without narrating minute by minute extracts of the war between the USA and al Qaeda it should be sufficient to say that Osama bin Laden had started training his cadres in Afghanistan-Pakistan. Under US pressure he had set up militant training camps in Sudan and began searching for nuclear material and weapons. On Feb. 26, 1993 a 500-kilogram bomb was exploded in a garage under World Trade Center in New York, killing six and injuring 1,042. Osama bin Laden’s associate Ramzi Yousef, a person of Pakistani origin, was responsible for the blast. It was a rehearsal for the 9/11 attacks on the twin towers.
Between 1995 and September 2001 al Qaeda mounted at least 8 major attacks on US targets including the apocalyptic attack on the twin towers of the World Trade Centre on 9/11/2001. The USA promptly retaliated by attacking Afghanistan on October 7, 2001. The US military’s Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) was launched, along with a number of coalition allies. The UK joined the war in 2002, naming the intervention Operation Herrick. Later the NATO forces also joined the war against the Taliban and al Qaeda. Incidentally India also accorded support to the US invasion. The Russian Federation had also extended tacit support as the Taliban regime was not acceptable to any orderly modern nation state. Indian presence in Afghanistan is limited to developmental and reconstruction works, despite assassination of several civilian Indian employees and ISI engineered attacks on the Indian embassy at Kabul.
Over last 8 years the USA and allies have been waging a war, in which victory is nowhere in sight. President Obama’s recent Afghan surge plan may not make significant dent on the war situation. Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda groups are sheltered in the remote areas on Pakistan and Afghanistan borders. Despite aerial bombings and ground operations the al Qaeda in Pakistan-Afghanistan appear to be an elusive enemy that has transformed itself as the fountainhead of global Islamic Jihad, as against America’s global war against terrorism. India had extended moral and diplomatic support to the USA. Pakistan is running with the hare and hunting with the hounds; pursuing two diametrically opposite objectives. It is receiving huge largesse from the USA in the ruse of fighting terrorism and using major part of the grant and aid to strengthen its armed forces to take on India in any future war. It is also sheltering and supporting the Afghan Taliban leaders and top leaders of al Qaeda. Pakistan assisted the Afghan Taliban Shura to be held in Balochistan and persuaded Washington not to use the drones in Baloch territory. There are reliable reports that the ISI had accommodated Mullah Omar in a Karachi safe house in recent past. The quagmire in Pakistan and Afghanistan is so complicated that the USA may find it difficult to extricate itself in an orderly manner. The USA had earlier exited from Iran and Vietnam amidst chaos and indignity.
The Afghan broth cooked by the USA, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and their allies has transformed the global Islamicist philosophy and battlefront actions significantly. The Iran revolution had kick started rebirth of Islamic resurgence and the oil rich Muslim countries realized that they had two potent weapons to confront the tormentors of the Arab and Islamic world-the British imperialists and the American neo-hegemonists. The new gained confidence coupled with historization of bitter memories of imperialist highhandedness, poverty, deprivation and sense of loss of identity generated a new surge in the Islamic world; forcing a vast majority to seek out the root-identity and adopting a neo-militant movement for asserting religio-political identity through organized armed struggle; often named Jihad against the kufr tormentors, historicized nearly over three centuries.
While the Afghan broth was in the process of cooking the USA and allies realized that another oil rich country was slipping out of their orbit and their once-upon-a-time puppet Saddam Husain was emerging as another Frankenstein. Saddam (meaning one who likes to confront) had, as a member of the Ba’athist party, opposed the coup by General Abd-al-Qasim (pro-USSR) which had deposed the British-US puppet king Faisal II of Iraq. Later in 1959 Saddam was allied to the UK and USA when the Ba’athist army officers overthrew Qasim. The US viewed Saddam as a bulwark against communism. However, his action of nationalization of the oil industry had upset his western friends. However, the Iran revolution had upset the political balance in the region. Encouraged by US and UK and with tacit support of China, France and Russia Saddam attacked Iran. Lavish US funding of Saddam has been acknowledged by many scholars.
Saddam’s relationship with the USA soured after he attacked Kuwait in 1991 and even made tactical moves to proceed against Saudi Arabia. Saddam’s overstaffed and under equipped army was routed by the US led allied counter attack. By 1998 the USA adopted a new doctrine of “regime change” if some governments failed to conform to US estimation and strategic interests and if such a regime confronted the geostrategic and geo-economic interests of the USA and its allies. In October 1998, removing the Hussein regime became official US foreign policy with enactment of the “Iraq Liberation Act.” Enacted following the expulsion of UN weapons inspectors the preceding August after some had been caught spying for the US, the act provided $97 million for Iraqi democratic opposition organizations to establish a program to support a transition to democracy in Iraq. This legislation contrasted with the terms set out in United Nations Security Council Resolution 687, which focused on weapons and weapons programs and made no mention of regime change.
George Bush began formally making his case to the international community for an invasion of Iraq in his September 12, 2002 address to the UN Security Council. Key US allies in NATO, such as the United Kingdom, agreed with the US actions, while France and Germany were critical of plans to invade Iraq, arguing instead for continued diplomacy and weapons inspections. After considerable debate, the UN Security Council adopted a compromise resolution, UN Security Council Resolution 1441, which authorized the resumption of weapons inspections and promised serious consequences for noncompliance. Security Council members France and Russia made clear that they did not consider these consequences to include the use of force to overthrow the Iraqi government. However, the mysterious issue of WMD and Iraqi nuclear programme were used as a cover and the US and UK intelligence community fabricated intelligence to suit the war-policy of Bush administration. Saddam was a confounded and conceited dictator, more sadist than Hitler. But, the US had no mandate to remove him.
But, the ruses used by the USA and UK to mount attack on Iraq for “regime Change” had ushered in a dangerous international foreign policy that had prompted the US Congress to pass a legislation to “liberate” a country. In post Second World War this was the worst example of imperialist intervention with massive destruction of lives and properties in a country, Iraq, where the ruling clique was obnoxious and the innocent peoples were at the mercy of the ruling family clique. From 1983 to present day USA’s Iraq war has witnessed more loss of lives and destruction of properties and transplantation of al Qaeda brand Islamicist resistance against the western powers. Though invited, India had declined to be a part of the coalition against “the axis of Evil” a concept developed by Bush administration. History would sure ask of America if Iraq was one of the evil powers at par with North Korea what prevented it to pass legislation for regime change in North Korea! US intervention in Iraq has been one of the worst human tragedies in modern times. Unfortunately, the US President and UK Prime Minister cannot be tried for war crimes, like smaller fries from Serbia and other countries.
Seeding of Islamic jihad in Iraq was directly connected to US led attack on the country. Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) is playing an active role in the insurgency situation. Initially it was led as Jama’at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (Group of Monotheism and Jihad) by the Jordanian militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. He died in 2006. Non-Iraqi fighters played key role in AQI network. The movement is now led by Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, probably an Egyptian. The group has taken over from al-Zarqawi’s original organization, Jama’at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad. It owes allegiance to bin Laden’s al Qaeda and identifies itself as Tanzim Qaidat al-Jihad fi Bilad al-Rafidayn (QJBR) (”Organization of Jihad’s Base in the Country of the Two Rivers“). Al Qaeda in Iraq is still active even after death of al-Zarqawi. The AQI had been responsible for 45 violent incidents in Iraq in 2009 in which over 300 people lost lives. American claim of eradication of al Qaeda from Iraq is not fully correct.
Intervention in Iraq, it is said by many pundits, was aimed at capturing the country’s oil resources. Vice President Dick Cheney broadly supported this objective. Funnily enough in December 2009 a consortium led by China’s top oil producer National Petroleum Corp, France’s Total and Malaysia’s Petronas signed a deal for developing the Halfaya oil reserves in southern Iraq. Most American commentator’s observed that China and France reaped the benefits of tremendous national losses suffered by the USA simply because its leaders were more emotionally jingoistic than pragmatic geostrategic thinkers.
Similarly the rise of Al Qaeda in the Maghreb (western and northern Africa) has started worrying the USA, France, Spain, the UK and other European countries. A look at the combined map of North Africa and Europe would give an impression that militant Islam is stridently germinating its bacterial colonies in the heart of Europe, most of them allies of the USA. For the sake of brevity we do not include details of violent incidents in the affected region.
Briefly speaking the Al Qaeda in Maghreb depends on affiliated groups and groups franchised by Jawahiri and Osama. Most important affiliated groups are Tunisian Combatant Group (two of its members had assassinated Ahmed Shah Masood of the Northern Alliance; Takfir wal Hirja (Egypt), Ikhwan ul Muslimeen (Egypt), Al Gama’at Al Islamiyya (Egypt), Armed Islamic Group-GIA (Algeria), Asbat al- Ansar (Lebanon), Bayat al-Iman group (Jordan), Libyan Islamic Group, Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Salafist Group for Calling (originated in Egypt) etc. The USA is not yet directly involved in military combats with these groups but special operation groups of the CIA are actively perusing the activities of these groups. Taken together with the Arab world, Afghanistan and Pakistan the map of al Qaeda affected areas appear to be a vast zone of active combat. It is yet to be seen how long the USA and its allies can refrain from direct intervention.
The rise of Gamal Abdel Nasser had acted as a political elixir amongst several Muslim countries. That was an age of assertion by the Muslim nations, though militarily and economically they were far behind the colonial masters. The Iran revolution coupled with rise of Islamic resurgence in Egypt, Syria, Palestine, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan had generated turbo effect into the combined forces of political buoyancy, militarist consolidation and religious fundamentalist resurgence. The USA and its allies were intoxicated with the glorious achievement of demolition of the Berlin wall, success in roping in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia for waging a proxy war against the USSR in Afghanistan and final demolition of the Communist monolith.
The West, in its intoxication over defeat of the USSR, ignored the infamous historic acts of general Zia-ul-Haq which transformed Pakistan to a theocratic country, as theocratic as Saudi Arabia. In December 1978 Zia-ul-Haq announced promulgation of Nizam-e-Mustafa, Sharia Law, to be implemented in every walk of life. To him goes the credit of pushing Pakistan to the path of retardation and resurgence of militant Islam that destabilized country, its neighbours, India, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The new dispensations even allowed Pakistani jihadis to take part in Chechen, Bosnian and Kosovo rebellion. The Inter Services Intelligence was converted as a tool of exporting jihad.
Till his death in 1988 Zia had promulgated series of ordinances, mainly Hudood Ordinance, Zina (adultery) Ordinance, regularization of Rajm (Stoning to death), compulsory midday prayer in government offices (Salat Al Zuhur), Zakat and Usr Ordinance (compulsory donation), introduction of Riba (no interest on loans) etc. Even after his death, during Benazir regime, the paranoid Islamists promulgated the Qisas and Diyat Ordinance-1990 that permitted victim of a crime the right to inflict on the offender. The USA, the purse provider of Pakistan, ignored the seeding of Jihad initiated by Zia and subsequent governments, which led to the mushrooming of jihadi tanzeems and growth of al Qaeda and Taliban influenced religious terrorism that has become endemic in entire South Asia and has rooted in UK, USA, Germany, Spain, France, Netherlands and other western countries, in addition to countries in South East Asia and Africa.
Had the USA exercised some restraint on Zia and subsequent regimes and maintained its presence in Afghanistan after Russian withdrawal, the unbridled growth of Islamicised Wahhabi and Salafi jihad campaign could have been controlled to a great extent. Lavish funding of the mujahideens and allied tanzeems in Pakistan and Afghanistan on the one hand and recalcitrance to exercise geopolitical control made the USA squarely responsible for growth of terror campaign and emergence of al Qaedaism and Talibanism as new philosophies of jihad for chunks of global Muslim population. We shall discuss in brief the main jihadi groups in Pakistan and how they are connected to al Qaeda and Afghanistan Talibans.
The scenario can be examined from tangential intervention of the USA and allies in Somalia and Yemen. Somalia, wrecked by civil wars, clan rivalry and rivalry between warlords came to a point of anarchic madness after Siad Barre regime failed to restore order and survive wars against the warlords. Famine, death and degradation of human values invaded the backward and underdeveloped country in the crucial Horn of Africa. The USA stepped into Somalia initially with a humanitarian mission of distribution of food under Operation Restore Hope. Gradually its forces (nearly 1500) and allied troops got bogged down in the same old policy “restoration of order and installation of a regime acceptable to western standard. Between 1992and 1994 the USA received a severe beating in Somalia in the hands of frenzied clan warriors and finally withdrew with a tally of over twenty US lives lost. It is relevant to mention that Pakistani terrorist Maulana Masood Azhar of Jaish-e-Mohammad was involved in the Mogadishu massacre of US soldiers. Now he lives in Bahawalpur under the very benign eyes of the ISI. India cannot forget Maulana Azhar for whose release from Indian jail IC 814 was hijacked and taken to Kandahar. Azhar had confessed that in 1993 he traveled to Nairobi, to meet with leaders of al-Ittihaad al-Islamiya, an al-Qaeda aligned Somali group. He also helped to bring in Yemeni Arab mercenaries to Somalia to fight against the US and allied forces.
The next round of war in Somalia between Ethiopia (supported by USA and allies) and the Islamic Court Union (ICU) and Islamist allies witnessed partial victory of Ethiopia and the Transitional Federal Government. Some elements of US army also followed the Ethiopian forces allegedly to hunt down al Qaeda elements. It is now established that Somalia has become a strong fort for al Qaeda affiliated organisations especially southern areas controlled by Hizbul Islami, IUC and various pockets in Putland area in the north east. Eritrea is reportedly supporting the al Qaeda forces. Frequent clashes between the Islamicists, al Qaeda affiliated forces and the tottering Federal government continue to haunt the Horn of Africa. Obviously Somali pirates dominate parts of the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean region. US intervention in Somalia has created an explosive situation in Somalia, Eritrea, Kenya and Sudan.
The US officials aver that bin Laden spent $3 million to recruit and airlift elite veterans of the Afghan jihad to Somalia via third countries, such as Yemen and Ethiopia. Several hundred foreign veterans of the Afghan jihad, expelled from Pakistan in 1993, also joined the Somali jihad after passing through Sudan. Tariq Nasr Fadhli, a radical Islamic leader from Yemen, who fought under bin Laden against the Soviets in Afghanistan, was behind bringing Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Somalia. Laden later claimed responsibility for the deaths of the 18 U.S. soldiers in Mogadishu. In a 1997 interview with CNN, Laden gloated that al-Qaeda had trained and organized the Somali fighters who did the actual fighting. This tactic, developed by the Afghan mujahideen (holy warriors) in their war against the Soviets, was the same one al-Qaeda forces used to bring down two U.S. helicopters near Gardez, Afghanistan, during Operation Anaconda in early March 2002. In conclusion, it may be said that Somalia has all the potentials to become another Jihad territory confronting USA and its allies. A redeeming feature is self proclaimed independence by British Somaliland and Putland. These are emerging as stable areas in the vast anarchic Somali territory.
Yemen was the birthplace of Osama’s father. According to a Yemeni terrorism expert Saeed Obaid, “Al-Qaeda started in Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula, but it was raised and nurtured in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and other places. Now it is clear that it is coming back to its roots and growing in Yemen. Yemen has become the place to best understand al-Qaeda and its ambitions today.”
The Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is in firming up stage. Yemen’s collapsing government is busy with Shia-Sunni civil war in the north, secessionist activities in the south and crumbling economy. The Yemeni tribes were easily drawn to al Qaeda. Thousands of Yemenis have fought in Afghanistan and Iraq; many returned to Yemen. A good number of Yemeni al Qaeda fighters are still in Pakistan-Afghanistan and Somalia. In 2000, al-Qaeda militants rammed the USS Cole with an explosives-packed speedboat off the southern city of Aden, killing 17 US sailors.
It is reported that Wuhayshi and his deputy, Said al-Shihri, a Saudi national and former detainee at the U.S facility at Guantanamo Bay, are leading the al Qaeda outfit in Yemen and they work in close collaboration with the al Qaeda group in Saudi Arabia. The Yemeni group has collaboration with Bayat al-Iman Group of Jordan, Egyptian Islamic Jihad, Al-Itthihad Al-Islami of Somalia, Islamic Army of Aydin (Yemen), Lebanese Partisans League, Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group and other al Qaeda affiliated groups in the Middle East and Africa.
The Yemeni movement and other al Qaeda affiliated activities in the region are guided by Anwar al-Awlaki, a US citizen of Yemeni descent now living in Yemen. Umar Farouk Abdulmuttalab, the Nigerian, who tried to blow up a US aircraft over Detroit on Christmas day, was motivated by Awlaki. He was trained in Pakistan also. Awlaki’s relationship with Major Nidal Hasan, the assassin at the US military base at Fort Hood, Texas, begun at the Dar al-Hijrah mosque in northern Virginia and continued via e-mail from Yemen.
The USA, UK and the government of Yemen with full support of Saudi Arabia are engaged in air strafing and bombing of suspected al Qaeda hideouts in Yemen. With the joining of many Guantanamo Bay detainees the al Qaeda outfit in Yemen has become a serious strategic concern to the USA. Washington is apprehensive about Osama bin Laden shifting his operational HQ to Yemen, if he is pursued relentlessly by the NATO forces and Pakistan. Presence of Osama in Yemen is likely refresh the fire of Islamic revolution in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other Arab countries in the region. The affiliated groups in west, north and central Africa are likely to be revitalized. Yemen, therefore, has emerged as newest theatre of warfare for America. According to the New York Times the USA was likely to spend nearly 250 million Dirham in 2010 for training the Yemeni army, deputing special operations groups from the CIA and for funding Yemen in acquiring modern gadgets to eradicate al Qaeda menace from the territory. This appears to be tall order and Yemen may become another al Qaeda black hole to suck in lots of US resources.
Majority of these countries are vital to India’s energy interest and are in the orbit of geostrategic concerns. Any military confrontation in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa automatically generates in India internal political concerns and concerns about energy supply and stability of the trade route. India is considered a major power in this region and cannot remain unaffected by internal convulsions and US military involvement in these countries. Indian Muslims are an inalienable part of the Ummah and some sections develop misperceptions that India is an active partner of the USA in its war against global terrorism (read Islamic Jihad). Indian foreign policy has always been independent of any Block interests-Soviet or USA. India has reasonably well established relations with Iran, present regime in Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, Sudan, Nigeria and other countries north and west Africa. India has binding interests in the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf and the Arabian Gulf in the oil rich region. USA and China have also emerged as major energy players in this region. China now intends to have permanent bases in this region with a view to exploiting Iranian, Saudi and other Gulf country’s oil resources. India should emerge as good a player as China is.
On the other hand India cannot afford to be harsh to Yemen, though Delhi is aware of increasing al Qaeda influence in the country. Aden on the tip of the Yemeni territory is vital from energy, trade and military point of view. The Gulf of Djibouti, the Red Sea region and the Indian Ocean front near Somalia have attained crucial strategic status. To prevent Somali and other pirates the USA, EU, India and China have deployed their naval vessels in the region to protect the vital sea routes. Al Qaeda’s predominance in Somalia and Eritrean bellicosity poses serious regional threat in this vital area of geostrategic interest. Yet India cannot be seen as a partner of the USA in its war against Islamic Jihad. At the same time India cannot distance itself from geopolitical and strategic obligations as a self-declared partner of the USA in its war against global terrorism. These concerns require well calibrated response bilaterally and multilaterally. India never supported US/UK war against Iraq, though it was critical of the dictatorship of Saddam Husain.
India has always maintained cordial diplomatic, economic and other bilateral relations with Iran, other Gulf countries and Saudi Arabia. India’s support to the USA to refer Iran’s nuclear policy to the United Nations was criticized at home by all the opposition parties. Many Gulf watchers believe that India’s action was not motivated by its national interest. It is understood that Iran’s nuclear capability (when acquired) will not be aimed at India. Many questions were raised about Indian support to the USA on Iran nuclear issue. The USA was fully aware of Pakistan-China-North Korea nexus in developing nuclear warheads. It did nothing to alert India and tried all possible tricks to prevent India from carrying out its own tests. In the bargain India failed to achieve the objectives of Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline; while China clinched the deal for Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-China gas pipeline and other lucrative oil deals with Iran, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf and African countries.
India’s presence in Afghanistan is a continuum of previous policies of supporting a democratic and non-Islamist regime in the war torn country. India’s smooth relationship with the Northern Alliance was a bulwark against the combined forces of the Taliban and Pakistan. India had actually established a hospital at Farkhor in Tajikistan, just 2 km from Afghan border. It treated Northern Alliance personnel injured in battles against the Taliban. Later this hospital was shifted to Afghan territory when the Northern alliance improved its hold. Later the BJP government and Tajikistan government signed an agreement in 2002 to establish an India airbase at Farkhor. The airbase was commissioned in 2007, where Indian air force men and machines are located to protect Tajikistan from any possible attack by Afghan jihadists and other enemies. An army detachment is also based at Farkhor. So far, there has been no objection to the Indian base at Farkhor from the Shanghai Cooperation Council (SOC) powers-Russia, China and all the CAR countries.
Another geostrategic area that may invite US intervention is the Central Asian Republics, rich in oil and gas and passing through ideological transition and economic stagnation. The CAR countries are oil and gas rich, especially the Caspian Sea bordering areas of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Besides the above two Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are also energy rich countries. Prior to the breakup of the USSR the Soviet Russia used to exploit the energy resources. What was earlier Russia-Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan triangle has started turning to Russian-Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-China quadrangle. The pipelines shown in the map below clarify vividly as to how China is tapping the energy resources of the CAR countries. Earlier Russian-Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan energy axis was vital to the stability of the region and an important source of supply to the European countries.
China has also signed energy accords with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Its existing accord with Iran, Saudi Arabia and African (Sudan, Nigeria etc) countries are indicator of China emerging as the second largest energy consumer only after the USA. This would mean that by 2030 China would leapfrog to the pinnacle of economic growth to the detriment of USA and allies and even Japan, India and Russia. According to M. K. Bhadrakumar, IFS (Asia Times-24.12.09) “Growing nervousness in Washington about the Chinese pipeline was quite palpable. The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a rare hearing in July regarding China’s geopolitical thrust into the Central Asian region. Testifying at the hearing, Richard Morningstar, the US special envoy for energy, underlined that the US needed to develop strategies to compete with China for energy in Central Asia. This was perhaps the first time that a senior US official has openly flagged China as the US’s rival in the energy politics of Central Asia. US experts usually have focused attention on Russian dominance of the region’s energy scene and worked for diminishing the Russian presence in the post-Soviet space by canvassing support for Trans-Caspian projects that bypassed Russian territory. In fact, some American experts on the region even argued that China was a potential US ally for isolating Russia. Certainly, 2009 was a turning point in American discourses on Chinese policies in Central Asia. As China’s Turkmen gas pipeline got closer to completion, US disquiet began to surface.”
The US has air bases in the CAR region. The Karshi-Khanabad Air Base is located in southern Uzbekistan not far from Tajikistan; Manas Air Base is situated just north of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. The United States began leasing both Soviet-era bases during the US led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. They are used primarily to station soldiers, refueling jets, and cargo planes. Each airfield houses roughly 1,000 U.S. troops and civilian contractors. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional security body whose members include China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan has been pressing the USA to close down these bases. The Kazakh opposition parties have demonstrated several times demanding US withdrawal. Geostrategic experts feel that USA is trying to stick to its bases in the CAR with a view to counter balance Moscow’s influence on its former federated units. China is apprehensive that USA has plans to aid and abet the Uyghur Islamic rebels who are fighting for independence of the Xinjiang province of China, terming it as East Turkestan Republic. It may be noted that al Qaeda and Pakistani jihadist groups are also associated with Uyghur rebels.
China also suspects India for assisting and abetting the Tibetan rebels who rise up at regular intervals, despite severe Chinese oppression. Xinjiang and Tibet has common borders. Some Chinese strategists aver that Washington, Moscow and Delhi are working in tandem to encourage the Uyghur rebels. To counterbalance such pressure China periodically puts pressure on India by making strident demands on Arunachal Pradesh and other disputed areas. China also works overtime to enhance military cooperation with Pakistan by supplying it with missile technology, aircraft production and other ancillary military hardware. India’s CAR policies are yet to crystallize with distinct bilateral and multilateral nuances apart from objectives of the USA, which considers the CAR region as a future energy reserve to be reversed from the present Russian and Chinese preponderance.
India has no access to the energy resources of Central Asia. If India happens to adopt a pro-active energy policy in near future it can tap the Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Russian oil and gas resources along a pipeline running through Iran and consigning the product to India from Bandar Mahashahr or Bandar Imam Khomeini. This would require improving the quality of bilateral relationship with Iran and the other littoral countries. Iran is vital to India’s energy resources as well as a bulwark against Sunni jihadist thrust in India. Hopefully this grandiose idea would catch up with South Block sooner than later.
India’s inability to tap the gas resources of Bangladesh and Myanmar indicate that its energy policies have not coincided with foreign policy and the quality of bilateral relations with these two neighbours. Minor irritants with Bangladesh can now be sorted out taking advantage of a secular and democratic regime now ruling from Dhaka. India’s economic umbrella can get a boost in Bangladesh provided a broader foreign policy is pursued pragmatically. China, on the other hand has signed memorandum of understanding with Myanmar for tapping its gas and oil resources.
India is required to give assistance to the USA in curbing the Islamist jihad in its own geopolitical region, especially Afghanistan and Pakistan. If America and the allies withdraw from Afghanistan in 2011 and if Pakistan turns out to be totally unreliable ally against the international jihadists, India may have to collaborate more stridently with the USA. Spill over of the al Qaeda and the Taliban movement from Afghanistan and Pakistan would prove to be more disastrous than extending limited cooperation to America. This may also become a mutual necessity in near future with a view to contain China’s ambition in these Asian regions and its goal of achieving supremacy in the Indian Ocean region. To frustrate China’s policy of encircling India the US overtures for strategic linkages should not be ignored. But, all care must be taken not to get India involved in America’s global war against Islamic jihad.
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