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By Lal Wickrematunge
(December 30, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) For little Sri Lanka, 2009 was a year of celebration and heart break. The aftermath of an improbable victory against the LTTE brought a massive wave of support from the Sinhala majority to President Mahinda Rajapakse. The Tamils were dumbfounded. In a near thirty year period of the LTTE’s dominance, the Tamil community, though not by choice, looked upto the LTTE to bring about devolution or some semblance of self rule in the North and East of the country. With the end of the war, a vacuum has been created even amongst the Tamil moderate polity. This has yet to be filled.
Large cut-outs and posters of the president flanked by his brothers and the heads of the tri-forces appeared on the skyline of this tiny resplendent island. That President Rajapakse was deified would be an understatement. Meanwhile the equally popular commander of the army, Sarath Fonseka was being retired. The general was irked and whispers were emanting from informed persons that he was a very disappointed man. An astrologer who predicted that there would be serious changes in the political firmament in the country with the advent of a new face was promptly arrested and later released.The cut-outs and posters depicting the general, even in the company of the president, began to come down, only to be replaced by more of a solitary president and his siblings.
The cracks deepened before long and the left wing JVP made initial forays to rope in the general into politics together with the now ousted Mangala Samaraweera, a former minister of foreign affairs and telecommunications in the Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunge government in which President Rajapakse was the prime minister. Mangala Samaraweera was the architect in spearheading the victory of President Rajapakse in his first term when he led the campaign with the JVP, but was soon sidelined and family members of the Rajapakse clan jostled and took control of the most important positions in the Rajapakse government of 2005.
President Rajapakse had been coercing members of the United National Party of the opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, to defect to the government ranks and were promptly rewarded with ministerial portfolios. That President Rajapakse ruled over the largest cabinet of ministers (over a hundred) was not lost on the hapless public, now burdened with the fall out of a global recession and rising prices.
( (C) Lal Wickrematunge )Though many expected Ranil Wickremesinghe to run for the presidency when it was hinted that the president would call for one after four of his six years (he is legally entitled to do so), in a deft move the joint opposition thrust General (Retd) Sarath Fonseka as their common candidate.The rudderless opposition was given a new lease of life. The United National Party, bruised and battered by the provincial council elections, was up beat. The fractured JVP was jubilant. The very slogan on which President Rajapakse campaigned (the war victory) had now, at best, to be shared. A shocked government resorted to lampooning a war hero which turned the sympathy factor in favour of the retired general. People started questioning the government: “If they could treat the general in this fashion, how would they treat us?”’
That General Fonseka was asked to quit his official residence when he did not have a house fit enough to live, annoyed the public. The general was thus portrayed to be an honest officer as against a century of corrupt ministers led by one family. A hint at a possible coup by the general and the response by the Indian government in helping the current regime was soon found to be hoax. Initial reports show that President Rajapakse will not have a cake walk at this election. The respective polls show a close fight and only in the coming weeks, a clearer picture if at all would emerge. General (Retd) Sarath Fonseka drew first blood when he filed and publicised his declaration of assets when handing over nominations on the December 17. The president failed to do so.
The government’s bashing of the West to appease the local market has come to haunt them in the form of the European Union withholding the GSP plus facility, through which as many as 7000 products were exempt from duty to the EU countries. The suppression of the media at the height of the war continues, but now it’s for political benefit. As many as eleven journalists have been murdered, over twenty have been abducted, assaulted and scores have fled the country. Self censorship and the resultant apathy have surprised more democratic nations and this island in now scraping at the bottom of the barrel where freedom of expression is concerned.
This election is going to be bruising battle between two patriots and the island is going to emerge fractured after the election. Already, charges and counter charges are being traded. The minority Tamils are more confused. Both front runners are prime movers in the war against the LTTE. It was the absence of the Tamil vote at the behest of Velupillai Prabhakaran that saw President Rajapakse defeat Ranil Wickremesinghe at the last Presidential elections.To abstain at this election would be unthinkable, but they are between a rock and a hard place. Having been confined to camps against their will, they are disillusioned.
If Ranil Wickremesinghe is able to get the die hard UNP vote bank to go to the polling station and the JVP gets the grass roots campaign into gear, which they are famed for, President Rajapakse has a fight on his hands. But the die will be cast if the Tamils vote for the general. If that becomes a reality, he may win. Will General Sarath Fonseka abolish the all-consuming powerful position of the Executive Presidency ( President Rajapakse also promised to do so in his Mahinda Chintanaya manifesto in 2005) and concentrate on removing corruption if he wins, or will it be “more of the same” if President Rajapakse wins a second term? The answer will be known by the January 27, 2010.
The writer is managing editor of the Sri Lankan newspaper ‘Sunday Leader’
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