Rajapaksha’s gamble: SB’s crossover

“In this contest for Presidency, President Rajapaksha is betting on the Sinhala votes beyond his Southern stronghold. He realizes his Southerners did not really fulfill his stakes in the recent Southern Provincial Council election. He cannot bet on the Tamil votes and he his trying his best with his razzmatazz’s to hoodwink them.”
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By Nilantha Ilangamuwa

The subject of gambling is all encompassing. It combines man's natural play instinct with his desire to know about his fate and his future. - Franz Rosenthal, Gambling in Islam, 1975

(December 11, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) President Rajapaksha has declared two wars against his rival candidate General Sarath Fonseka.

One is the media campaign against the General, with the help of the bought-over media men. Four years of his governance has created, a blind and corrupt money influenced media personals in Sri Lanka. Those who did not tow the President’s line had been killed or run away from the country or even lingering in the prisons.

Second is the political gambling with his party and with the International Community. In an interview, Asia Director of the Human Rights Watch, Brand Adams told me, the President Rajapaksha lied to Ban Ki- Moon, General Secretary of the United Nations over the post –War reconciliation and political solution to the ethnic crisis.

Rajapaksha is inner most a man with heavy gambling sense. Until he became President, he has become a calculated gambler. Power corrupt leaders and Mahinda is a living testimony and four years of his rule as President proves, how best he can throw the dice or even attempt to play the dangerous Russian roulette game.

He handled his challenges in two ways. One to target and gamble against his enemies and his skill of patiently waiting and highly tolerating his limits till he feels the power to move the dice.

On the latter, his patience in holding his breath at difficult times in his party (SLFP) despite his colleagues asking him to crossover made him the centre piece to become the President for years ago. He stayed and faced numerous problems in his party whilst others had crossed, double crossed and triple crossed and even multi crossed in last few decades.

He is so skilled that he allowed those who challenged him to crossover. He felt his power is absolute, when agitating talented men are not around him. The best example for this is S.B. Dissanayake (SB) who crossed over from the opposition UNP to the President’s party at a much wanted time for the President.

It is the very same Mahinda Rajapaksha who allowed SB to crossover from the SLFP, when he became a big headache and threat for his authority. It was blessing in disguise, when SB fled the SLFP and joined the opposition UNP. SB was welcome by the UNP at the time it was a pathetically weak party and the serious vacuum in the UNP gave the opportunity for SB to become the National Organizer of the Party.

The latest SB’s crossover is purposeful for the UNP. Unlike Mahinda, SB is an unsuccessful schemer. In the UNP he was always planning to oust its leader Ranil Wickramasinghe. He even went to the extent of promoting Sajith Premadasa and wanted him to act against Ranil. SB became a burden and a sore for the UNP.

He created internal conflicts within the UNP with the view to become its leader. But he failed in his attempts and soon realized it is now the opportune moment to crossover to the SLFP. In an exclusive interview, he once told me that he will be the leader of Sri Lanka if he had remained with the SLFP. His crossover this time is purposeful for Mahinda, but a man (SB) who enjoys fishing expeditions in troubled waters, will end up being thumb controlled so long as Mahinda is SLFP’s leader.

Few days ago, it was reported that Mahinda rushed to SB’s house and conducted talks with him to join the Government. With that, SB started lamenting shamelessly about Ranil and the UNP. Rajapaksha caught SB like a fly to help him tout some extra votes in the forthcoming Presidential election.

Rajapakse is desperate and he will even go after the stray dogs in the streets to hang the campaign poster for his election. SB is valuable than the street dogs for him because SB is well known for rigging the votes in Hanguranketha, Walapane, the rural areas in the central of the island nation in the past elections. Even President’s faithful fan in the Nuwara- Eliya District C.B. Ratanayake, who is the Minister of Livestock is SB’s breed.

In this contest for Presidency, President Rajapaksha is betting on the Sinhala votes beyond his Southern stronghold. He realizes his Southerners did not really fulfill his stakes in the recent Southern Provincial Council election. He cannot bet on the Tamil votes and he his trying his best with his razzmatazz’s to hoodwink them. Tamils still remember how Rajapaksha touted their voting rights in the last Presidential election. Then the latest state sponsored Nanthikadal thamasha to put up a memorial site for the army at this critical time will back fire on him terribly.

It is said in a bet there is always a fool and a thief. President Rajapaksha is calculated schemer. He is not a fool but a thief and he knows how to fool the vulnerable to his advantage. His jumbo ministerial set up is the typical example. Why does he want a Jumbo ministerial setup? He has accommodated well known thieves and crooks to keep him in power. Minister Dr Mervin Silva and Douglas Devananda are just well known corrupts propping up the President.

Of course, those who wanting good behaviour in governance will be very cautious to follow SB’s risky path. Well respected Sajith Premadasa who has strong international relations and the support of the ordinary people is not expected to commit political suicide by following SB’s path. He should follow the path of Rajapaksha to be patient to respond when time arises by being in the UNP.

As I said earlier, power corrupts people and President Rajapaksha might have forgotten that he cannot win every gamble. His limit to power and greed has come to the point like Prabakaran’s in the Nandikadal. It is clear he is playing the dangerous Russian roulette game this time and his political future seems to be a foregone conclusion. When gamblers get intoxicated with wins, they do not realize the danger of loosing in their gambles. For Mahinda, the loss will be greater as he would lose even the last two years of his present term over his calculated gamble to call the Presidential election.

He never would have thought a person like General Fonseka will challenge him with the backing of the opposition. This opportunity is the best bet for Ranil and the JVP, otherwise they would have got into real doldrums unable to regalvanise them for a foreseeable future.

There is nothing wrong in Sarath Fonseka asking the dead LTTE leader V. Prabhakaran’s parents to vote in the Presidential election. Just because the son is detested, the innocent parents cannot be victimized. When they were in India at the time Rajiv’s murder were never harmed. But in Sri Lanka it is laws of the jungle and no one is spared. They too are lingering in detention at this old age.

(The writer can be reached at ilangamuwa@gmail.com)

-Sri Lanka Guardian