A political vision for future

- New Year means new challenges for several political parties. There are the long-festering issues that they must address in order to grow and remain politically relevant

By Kalyani Shankar

(January 01, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) What does the crystal ball say about the year 2010? For the Congress, the year 2010 should be one of consolidation and growth. The party ended the year with the launch of its year-long 125th anniversary celebrations. The mood was a little sombre because of the Telangana crisis and the Jharkhand election results, however, the speeches delivered by Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh indicate that the party is serious about putting things in order.

The Congress will complete its organisational elections by March. The new team will not only have approval of the party high command but also of her son and AICC general secretary Rahul Gandhi. It is also to be seen whether Mr Rahul Gandhi takes up more responsibility besides that of the Youth Congress and the NSUI.

The other priority for the Congress is to make up its mind about its alliances. The crucial Bihar Assembly elections are due in 2010 and the party has to decide whether to repeat its successful Uttar Pradesh experiment or go for alliances with the RJD and the LJP or even with the JD(U). Rejuvenation of the party in Bihar will enthuse Congress workers elsewhere as without Uttar Pradesh and Bihar there could be no party revival.

As far as the UPA Government is concerned, the most challenging task in 2010 is to host the Commonwealth Games in October. With preparations for the games lagging behind the schedule, the organisers will have to work with break-neck speed to make it a success.

The Government is in a catch-22 situation regarding creation of a separate Telangana State. Added to the embarrassment was the alleged involvement of Andhra Pradesh Governor ND Tiwari in a sex scandal in Raj Bhavan which led to his resignation. Unless the Centre decides to impose President’s rule to cool the passions and restore law and order, the Telangana agitation may become more violent. The Government may also face a domino effect of similar demands to create separate States of Vidarbha, Gorkhaland, Harit Pradesh, Bundelkhand, and Saurashtra. If a second State Reorganisation Commission is set up then these demands could be referred to it.

At the foreign policy level, the pending visit of US President Barack Obama will be a big event. This visit will deepen and broaden the India-US relations. President Pratibha Patil’s China visit, which is likely to take place in May 2010, is also equally important. The recent strains in the Sino-Indian relations are likely to be ironed out.

The main Opposition in Parliament, the BJP is also gearing up as GenNext leaders are taking the baton from party veterans. The party has a new national president in Mr Nitin Gadkari. Ms Sushma Swaraj is the Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha while Mr Arun Jaitley is the Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha. Mr Gadkari is new to Delhi and his challenges are many. His first task is to establish his authority within the party. Another major task is to ensure that the NDA remains together. The Bihar elections will be the first acid test in this regard as it is not sure whether the JD(U) will remain with the NDA or not.

The Left parties, which are in a shambles, are getting ready to face Assembly elections in West Bengal and Kerala in 2011. The CPI(M) is worst hit with the onslaught of the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. In Kerala Chief Minister VS Achuthanandan and party State secretary Pinarayi Vijayan do not see eye to eye. In West Bengal the party has to decide whether Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee will lead in 2011. The Left unity also needs to be forged as the four Left parties are not on the same wavelength on some issues.

Tamil Nadu may see a change if Chief Minister M Karunanidhi bows out as he had announced his decision to retire in June 2010. If he does, then will his sons MK Stalin and MK Azhagiri come to an understanding or will they quarrel? Mr Karunanidhi’s bidding good bye will have its effect on the fortunes of the AIADMK and other smaller parties. The Congress also has to think of its alliance partner then.

RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav and LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan will have to revitalise their parties if they have to be relevant in Bihar politics. Mr Yadav is quite pleased with his party’s performance in Jharkhand but capturing power in Bihar will be his one-point agenda. Mr Paswan has come as a cropper and he will have to fight for his survival in Bihar elections.

In short, 2011 will be a dress rehearsal for 2012, when Assembly elections to a number of States are due.