UNA candidate is none other than Ranil

“As the main candidates in 2010 are all going to be Sinhala only, it will be a very good barometer to measure ‘peace’. How united are the people of Sri Lanka across the geographical and ethnic spectrum after a 34 years of violence and brutal war?”
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By Thomas Johnpulle

(November 26, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) UNA presidential election candidate is none other than Ranil this time too. There is absolutely no confusion on that. News reports and rumours to the contrary only add to spice up the announcement that would be otherwise dull. It is going to be the fourth presidential poll Ranil would be keen to contest. In 1994 the party selected Gamini Dissanayake over Ranil as its presidential candidate. Ranil contested the 1999 and 2005 elections and 2010 will be the third presidential election where he will be a candidate.

Political sense

It makes no political sense to field another candidate from the UNA since such a move would critically disadvantage the UNA. Ranil is the best bet for Tamil votes. No other UNA leader can receive Tamil support than Ranil. Given the stark polarisation of the Tamil votes in favour of anti-war sentiments, UNA generally stands to gain this support. But not if the UNA candidate is from the military! Among the potential UNA candidates Ranil has been consistent with his anti-war slogans and people will not let him down.

Two previous presidential elections show that except a very few, all the electoral wins for the UNP came from Tamil majority electorates. Conversely, Ranil won in all Tamil majority electorates. When district-wise lead margins are considered, Ranil led Mahinda by 150,878 votes in Nuwara Eliya, 92,678 in Batticaloa, 48,601in Vanni, 36,517 in Trincomalee and 33,848 from Badulla. Apart from these Kandy, Colombo and Ampara also favoured Ranil.

This is why retaining or maximising Tamil votes is critically important to the UNA. There is an even bigger reason to do so. A General Election is due next year as the term of the present parliament ends in April 2010. If UNA loses Tamil votes at the Presidential Election, it will adversely affect the General Election too. This is one big reason for UNA to retain Ranil as its presidential candidate.

Previous losses at a large number of elections are not the driving factor of future elections. The best example is Ranil’s uncle JR Jayawardene. He was in political doldrums for over 34 years before assuming high office in 1977.

World’s oldest elected president

JR Jayawardene was the oldest president at his time but not the oldest president in the world today. That record is held by Robert Mugabe who is at 84. JR Jayawardene was the president until he was 82. But he is the oldest to be elected for the first time as president at 76. Although Jayawardene assumed the functions of the president in 1978 he was first elected at the 1982 election.

Going by these credentials of his uncle, Ranil will be 61 next year and has a long political life ahead of him. Ranil is the longest standing Opposition Leader of Sri Lanka. He has served two short terms as the Prime Minister. All in all he has over 32 years of political maturity. He is undoubtedly one of the most senior UNP MPs in parliament.

Contrastingly other choices available to the UNA lack political maturity making Ranil the only choice.

The twelve party alliance

UNA was formed by the alliance of 12 registered political parties. However, a closer look reveals all but three (3) of the 12 parties are mere name boards. UNA’s MPs come from the UNP, UPFA and SLMC. Even the SLMC leader comes from a UNP national list. Hon Ganesan never contested under his party and was also elected from the UNP. Hon Samaraweera’s party has only himself in parliament. Therefore, the UNA, for all intents and purposes, is the UNP ungrouped and regrouped again which doesn’t create any additional votes.

Although attempts were made to get the JVP onboard, they failed. TNA shows signs of cracking with a group aligning with the ruling coalition while another group joining with the UNA. The ability to garner support from these camps is essential to win the election.

The third force at presidential poll – path to political bankruptcy

Presidential election is a battle between the two main political parties. No matter how popular, there is absolutely no room for a third candidate. On all previous occasions, the third candidate and below ended up in political nothingness. The first presidential poll was in 1982 and the JVP leader Rohana Wijeweera came third and that was the end of his political career. At the 1988 election Osswin Abegunasekera came third. Although he manoeuvred his way across political parties, he politics ended soon. Hudson Samarasinghe scored third at the 1994 election and he was never successful in politics. So too was AJ Ranasinghe. Nandana Gunatilake came third at the 1999 election. He too made a few political manoeuvres but now it seems that his career is over. Siritunga Jayasuriya came third in 2005 and he remains a political nobody.

The third force at presidential elections is considered a spoiler. Voters have been very cruel to the third force.

Sinhala Only?

Sri Lanka has a long way to go to recognise that even a Tamil or a Muslim can become the president. Until now all presidential elections have been Sinhala-Only in the sense all serious candidates have been Sinhalese. Although Kumar Ponnambalam contested the 1982 election he could only win the Jaffna district. Enthusiasm of Northern voters is much anticipated at the 2010 election as their voting for Sinhala candidates has been low since 1982. This was the trend in all presidential elections, not just in 2005.

Voters’ register of the districts in the north and east must be verified as these are heavily inflated. For instance, the voters register says Jaffna district had a vote base of 701,938 voters in 2005 whereas the total population in 2007 according to a strict regional census carried out by security forces was only 559,619! Having an inflated voters’ register leads to various malpractices like impersonation which make the election not a free and fair one.

As the main candidates in 2010 are all going to be Sinhala only, it will be a very good barometer to measure ‘peace’. How united are the people of Sri Lanka across the geographical and ethnic spectrum after a 34 years of violence and brutal war? The international community will be keenly interested in the outcome, voting patterns and most importantly the voters’ turnout in the North. Based on these the international community will form an opinion as to whether the present form of democracy in Sri Lanka lives up to the reputation as Asia’s oldest democracy. Wide spread voters’ turnout also means the importance to have the post of the executive president. The 2010 presidential election is expected to be a keenly contested event.

-Sri Lanka Guardian