The second round run off in Afghanistan

“There is a problem of enthusing the population once again to come and vote as there is also a boycott by the Taliban. The turnout could therefore remain low particularly in the south and the west.”
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By Rahul K Bhonsle

(November 03, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) The Independent Election Commission plans a second round of voting in Afghanistan which will take place on 7 November. The election panel acknowledged massive fraud. The official vote count exceeded estimated number of voters in many areas. In Helmand province -- where 134,804 votes were recorded, 112,873 of them for President Hamid Karzai -- the United Nations estimated that just 38,000 people voted. In Paktika province, 212,405 valid votes were cast, including 193,541 for Karzai, the United Nations estimated that 35,000 voters turned out. In Kandahar province, which recorded 252,866 votes, including 221,436 for Karzai, the United Nations estimated that 100,000 people voted.

After much pull and push President Karzai acknowledged the decision to be legal and constitutional. Taliban fighters once again issued warning to Afghans not to take part in the upcoming presidential runoff. The statement said Taliban militants will also cut off key roads and highways, and warned that anyone who casts a ballot "will bear responsibility for their actions". While Mr Karzai has many faults, he has been now proven choice of less than 50 percent but a majority of the electorate therefore the US may not find any alternative but to support him. The aim should be now to have a better and cleaner presidential election run-off in November to bring stability at a time when Taliban violence is at its worst in eight years of war. This is the demand of both the Presidential candidates and therefore it remains to be seen how the system is able to reconcile within a short period.

As anticipated the Taliban have given a call for boycott for the Presidential run off on 7 November. This will prove to be a dual challenge for the government and the forces deployed in the country. On one hand there is a necessity for ensuring that the level of enthusiasm in the country for elections after a long hiatus from 21 August is sustained and there is support of the people for participation willingly and voluntarily. This may have two trends, now that there is a run off some people may feel more inclined to participate as there would a clear verdict this time around. On the other hand there may be people who are already tired of the election rhetoric and feel that the Taliban ban should not be violated as the possible risk to life and limb is not worth the elections.

There is a problem of enthusing the population once again to come and vote as there is also a boycott by the Taliban. The turnout could therefore remain low particularly in the south and the west. Holding flawless elections would also be important to establish the legitimacy of the elected government in the future.

Apart from hasty preparations, which do not raise confidence of a second round free of fraud as was the first, it remains to be seen how the security situation unravels given the major challenges faced by the security forces across the country to manage the first round itself. The final challenge is of course that of the Independent Election Commission which cannot afford to fail a second time.

The Election battle in Afghanistan will be fought on more than one front apart from the one between the two candidates, the Taliban and Security forces stand off will be a very deadly as they have already indicated with the attack on 28 October on the UN quarters in Kabul. In addition the Taliban are likely to target the local elections officials, polling booths, supporters of the two candidates, polling material transportation vehicles and also ANA and ANP as well as ISAF troops exploiting their wider dispersion. The IED will remain the main weapon in their hands for as troops will have to move out on election duties it would provide them an ideal opportunity to target the vehicles and moving columns. Thus special precautions would be necessary during this period.

Mr Abdullah Abdullah has possibly given the first signs of throwing the towel as he sees almost certain defeat with a number of provinces and district chiefs and tribal leaders having indicated their support for Mr Karzai. This would effectively mean that his chances were reduced for in Afghanistan what is indicated by the tribal leadership goes.

There is also a division in the US supporters in Afghanistan. With Mr Holbrooke who was a staunch supporter of Mr Abdullah now sidelined, Mr Khalilzad a former Ambassador to Afghanistan and some say was a prospective candidate for the Presidency having taken centre stage beefing up of support to Mr Karzai would be evident.

-Sri Lanka Guardian