Sarath Fonseka is not science-fiction

By Rajpal Abeynayake

(November 16, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) Sarath Fonseka? Whether he should contest or not contest is no more – and no less – an existential poser, than pondering the Shakespearean ‘to be or not to be.’

I’d say that there is no point not meeting the issue head-on. All prevarication about the matter makes everybody look ridiculous, because this is the news – and one cannot possibly ignore the breaking news.

In the first place, all the pundits should be told, look, it’s ridiculous if this argument is approached on the basis of the legitimacy of Sarath Fonseka’s putative candidature.

I’m talking in terms of legitimacy as by law. Of course it’s democratic for Sarath Fonseka to contest.

I was watching with glee the unfolding of some pundits’ prognostications that the president can desist from accepting his resignation letter.

I remember thinking what a lot of self-important tosh that was.

Oh come on. This is not J. R. Jayewardene deciding mid-term that the civic rights of Mrs. Bandaranaike should be withdrawn. That was a long term plan, couched in the legitimacy of a sitting Commission’s deliberations and all that.

Public relations calamity

Can the sudden suggestion by a pundit that Fonseka be forestalled by curtly rejecting his resignation be taken seriously?

Most definitely not. The president cannot arbitrarily NOT accept a resignation just because he wants to forestall a possible rival candidate from contesting – and that too, just apparently months away from the election, provided a presidential election is called.
Talk about “arbitrary and capricious’’ – a simple open and shut case for any un-rigged court.
Moreover, any such goading of the president to do this would result in a public relations calamity for the president, because repeat – this is not J.R. Jayewardene systemically de-legitimising Sirmavo; this decision if made, would be a sudden slap-bang command that says “you can’t contest now – you go to hell.”

That’s unorthodox to put it mildly, but more importantly what it does is to undermine the president’s legitimacy in such a way as to make JRJ’s subterfuge look like a picnic. Does Mahinda Rajapaksa want to risk that despite all the columnists goading him on, for whatever reason?

I don’t think so, which is why he has at the time of going to press, in fact decided to accept Fonseka’s resignation – and so much for pundits who are dazzled by their own too-clever for their own boots’ prognostications.

Now, there may be others who try to pick holes about the democratic legitimacy of a putative Sarath Fonseka candidacy.

This is stupid squared. The fact remains that the man democratically can contest, and there is no constructional stipulation that can stop him. As far as I know, there are a very few stipulations that could stop a man from contesting the presidency if he wants to, and among these are that a person may not be a convicted criminal, and that he or she must not be insane.

Whatever some people may try to say about him, I think clearly Sarath Fonseka cannot be disqualified on ether of these counts that would forestall a possible run for the presidency – so that’s out of the way. There is no question about the legal legitimacy of the ex-army commander’s putative run for the highest office.

People should therefore if they want to get onto a valuable pursuit, not waste time talking about the moral legitimacy of his candidacy.

The question is not whether Fonseka can contest – the question is whether he should. On the one hand, Fonseka is a hero, and each time the Rajapaksas say “we won the war’’ Fonseka scores some points of his own as if by default.

The government has done little else other than winning the war, and in this political climate, its obvious why the opposition is delirious about the fact that they think they have found a man who can pull the rug right from under the Rajapaksas’ feet.

Crass aspects of Rajapaksa regime

No doubt therefore about the fact that Fonseka offers some resistance to the crass aspects of the Rajapaksa regime – the rampant corruption and impunity, and the ludicrous family bandyism etc.., and the move towards the entrenchment of a plutocratic quasi-dictatorship.

But then, the question is whether Fonseka, a General, can, if he wins, in fact govern the country – or whether he would simply be swamped by the UNP’s oligarchic cabal who are propelled forward essentially by one thing - - the fact that they have been missing power for so long.

Will Fonseka be swamped by the opposition’s baying mob, or will he use his General’s training to swamp them, and knock them out and establish a despotic quasi-military regime himself?

In this fluid but down-to-the-wire situation, all of these are possibilities.

The simple calculus is that many negatives and many positives come with a possible Fonseka run for the presidency – something that now seems not just possible but almost a certainty, judging by the recent shape of events.

Great positives

So, who, we may ask, are the candidates who do not have positives and negatives? The Rajapaksas have great positives such as giving overall leadership to the war, and Mahinda Rajapaksa has aeons experience in politics and in power. But the Rajapaksas have enormous negatives, such as a sense of entitlement to power that is manifest to the point of attempting to withhold democratic rights, encouraging oligarchic cabal rule, and diddling the exchequer while doing all of this.

Therefore, there is no questioning the moral legitimacy of Fonseka to contest. The opposition is entitled to field the candidate who they feel has the best chance of winning – and you can’t fault them for getting this one thing right. Fonseka is the one good challenger against Rajapaksa this post-war election season, and any donkey should be able to see that.

But there is one sanguine alternative available to Rajapaksas. Let the man run, and then defeat him. The president, seasoned political operator that he is, has a sense that it will be a cold day in hell before he listens to nattering political pundits who want him to reject Fonseka’ resignation letter. He says – “game on’’, and may the best man win. He is sure he is the best man, and he is sure that is right.

The only thing that seems left for us the citizenry to do, then, is to wait and watch.

(The writer, editor of the Lakbima News)

-Sri Lanka Guardian