Ranil, the Young Fox

“If SF wins and even if he dishonours the pact, one thing is certain; that is it will be an irretrievable political setback for MR and his brotherhood. And RW will emerge or at least it will pave the way for him to emerge as a political hope for the country in the ensuing crucial years, particularly with his ability to command the confidence of the Tamils.”
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By Maduranga Rathnayake
Writes from Melbourne

(November 20, Melbourne, Sri Lanka Guardian) The latest debate, MR (Mahinda Rajapakse) or SF (Sarath Fonseka)-SS (Sarath Silva) appearing to be out of the ring, at least at the moment. There is one man, a most important man, who has already won, certainly and obviously not the Presidency. RW (Ranil Wickramasinghe).

Would RW have contested the next Presidential Election?

Well, he would have, but chances of his defeating victorious commander-in-chief MR before April 2010 would be slim, though RW would certainly have given MR a very tough time this time around. Yet, it is the person who wins even by one vote will be the President however tight the election may have been. So, one does not need a PhD to see RW’s predicament against the backdrop of his consecutive defeats in the past and the on-going cold war within the walls of UNP to exorcise him from the leadership. Would RW, LL.B and Attorney-at-Law, then have risked his leadership in the UNP, the party to come to power at some future time, by contesting this time, a time not the most favourable to him, though MR’s popularity is undisputedly on the decline? RW has the Answer.

Common Candidate

A common candidate with the mission of doing away with the executive presidency, the perfect answer for RW. SF the chosen one. A messiah. Light against darkness, darkness of executive presidency. The Perfect answer. Firstly, RW will not contest the Presidential Election and it is a simple deduction therefore that he will not lose another election, what can the anti-RWs in the UNP say then? Absolutely nothing. RW knows very well that during MR’s second term as President he only has to make sure that the constitution is not amended allowing a third term for MR, and in 2016, it will be a cake-walk for him. By any stretch of imagination, if SF wins, then the pact comes into play, RW taking up the executive Prime Ministership while SF would continue as a figure head, the condition precedent being the scrapping of the Executive Presidency. That said, what if SF dishonours the pact? Then RW has, one would hope, his powerful international friends to turn to as a last-ditch attempt if necessary. Much as no friends and no enemies in politics, no pacts in politics too! RW must be aware of that.

SF and the Presidential Election

Secondly, if SF wins and even if he dishonours the pact, one thing is certain; that is it will be an irretrievable political setback for MR and his brotherhood. And RW will emerge or at least it will pave the way for him to emerge as a political hope for the country in the ensuing crucial years, particularly with his ability to command the confidence of the Tamils. Thirdly, if SF loses, that will be the end of SF and other hopefuls like SS and a few others and they would be permanently eliminated from the race. MR, victorious again, will then call for the constitutionally mandated Parliamentary Election and fight it on a new invigorated scale and the anti-RWs in the UNP would not then be able to blame RW for not being able to return a UNP-majority parliament in such a background. Thereafter, as the tradition goes the key anti-RWs in the UNP, at least one or two, are likely to join and accept portfolios from MR.

Kola Kotiya

In all previous elections RW was labelled as Kola Kotiya-green tiger-and that campaign by UPFA, JVP and JHU against RW cost him thousands of middle class votes. Though MR has now finished the Kotiya, if however RW contested this time, the UPFA would once again harp on the kola kotiya , of course in some novel way, as the sentiments of the Sinhala-Buddhists are still so fragile. So, for RW skipping the Presidential Election at this point is advantageous on that front too because by 2016 Kola Kotiya would be an obscure proposition with the many post-war challenges on the social and the economic front.

The Old Fox

RW, the patient. RW knows it is a waiting game, to get to the top chair in politics. His uncle, the old fox would have given RW a similar, if not more craftier, advise-to field a common candidate while securing party leadership to him for another election-if he, the old fox, were alive.

-Sri Lanka Guardian