China at Sixty: Adverse external strategic images

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations

(October 01, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian) China today celebrates its sixtieth year of existence as a Communist State. The celebrations in Beijing have been marked by an unprecedented public display of massed military power and sophisticated weaponry and China’s missile might.

China’s phenomenal economic resurgence and financial strengths stand recognized by the international community. What is forgotten is that China’s phenomenal economic progress would not have taken place on its own strengths. It was made possible by the inflow of large scale inflow of US and Western FDI and technology provision which were then prompted by building up China as countervailing power to Russia.

On its sixtieth anniversary, when China is not militarily threatened by any of the remaining Big Five Powers or any other nation on its peripheries, what message is China intending to send through this massive display of its military power and to whom?

If it was intended to impress the Chinese public and ignite their latent nationalism, then why has most of the Chinese nation been barred from witnessing first hand the Chinese public display of its raw military power?

If it was intended to politically signal to the global powers and nations on its peripheries that China’s military modernization and upgradation was complete, that message stands recorded by the world over that China is an emergent military threat to regional and global peace.

China at sixty has generated adverse external strategic images by virtue of its demonstrated record of strategic behavior in the last sixty years.

Some of these images need to be retouched today so as to grasp the real significance of China’s emphasis on the display of its military might on its sixtieth anniversary. These are as follows:

* China as an Emergent Threat to Regional and Global Stability
* China’s Propensity to Use Force on Contentious Issues
* China’s Brutal Military Suppression of Internal Dissent and Ethnic Genocide
* China: The World’s Most Notorious WMD Proliferator

China as an Emergent Threat to Regional and Global Stability

China is perceived as an emergent threat to regional and global stability. Its phenomenal economic rise has fuelled a massive military build-up of China’s military machine, both in conventional military power and of her nuclear weapons and ICBMs and SLBMs.

In terms of China’s threats to regional stability, China is perceived as the prime national security threat in Asia by major countries such as India, Japan and Vietnam. Even Australia, distantly away from mainland China, factors China as a threat in its security formulations.

At the global level the United States constantly projects publicly China as its prime national security threat. The United States perceives China as intent on pushing USA out of the Western Pacific and East Asia.

Russia in more muted terms, but visible in Russian strategic literature keeps a wary eye on China as a potential threat. The record of China confronting Russia as a quasi-strategic ally of USA in the not too distant past cannot be wished away.

The European Union, distantly away from China, yet fears China as an emergent threat by virtue of the increasing range and lethality of Chinese ICBMs.

The only exceptions in terms of countries not fearing China as an emergent threat are rogue nations like North Korea and Pakistan and most of the Islamic World. Huntington's ‘Clash of Civilizations’ evokes a recall.

China’s Propensity to Use Force on Contentious Issues

China has a blemished record in this respect starting with its military intervention in Korea against USA and the UN Forces in the 1950s to “Teaching a Lesson” aggressive attacks on India in the 1960s and Vietnam in the 1970s.

Interspersed were the many brinkmanship military face offs with the United States over Taiwan and with India in 1967 and 1986-87. Chinese strategic literature even today abounds with instances calling for “Teaching a Lesson” militarily to India over the India.-Tibet border issues and Chinese strategies of fragmenting India.

China even in the 21st Century shows no indications to rein-in the propensity to use force to dictate its decisions on contentious issues.

China’s massive military display on its sixtieth anniversary when not faced with any discernible military threats further reinforces this Chinese impulse.

China’s Brutal Military Suppression of Internal Dissent and Ethnic Genocide

China’s external image gets severely dented with its record of the brutal suppression of the Chinese uprisings in Tienenman Square protests and the latest military suppression of violent protests in Xingjian and Tibet.

Tibet is an outstanding case where China has resorted to both ethnic and cultural genocide of a peace-loving nation which was independent till militarily occupied by China in 1950. China's continued brutal suppression in Tibet arises from the global amnesia on Tibet.

China’ brutal military suppression of such movements against Chinese Communist rule amply highlights the insecurities that even today overpower the Chinese Government and prompts it to brutal suppression in violation of all civilized norms.

China: The World’s Most Notorious WMD Proliferator

China’s dubious reputation as the world’s most notorious WMD proliferator, stands unsurpassed by any other nation.

The list of nations classified as rogue nations by the United States were the very nations that China targeted for its WMD proliferation

China could do so for two major reasons. Firstly, it has always held international propriety and stability in utter contempt as long as its strategic interests were secured. Secondly, it could go in for flagrant WMD proliferation, because it felt secure that at times when it indulged in such activities, the United States would adopt permissive attitudes and look the other way, for at that moment of time China’s strategic utility to USA in relation to Russia, outweighed strategic propriety.

Concluding Observations

Countries and analysts that preach that China can emerge as a responsible stake-holder in global strategic affairs are giving a spin to China’s image which is not borne out by China’s strategic record of the last sixty years.

China’s rejoicings on its sixtieth year celebrations seem to be limited to China’s governing Communist Party hierarchy. To millions of Chinese yearning for democracy and freedom and these in Xingjian and Tibet the military display in Beijing today would be a stark reminder that no peaceful political solutions await them from the Chinese Communist regime.

China needs to be perceived by the global and regional community not in terms of Cold War strategic equations. China’s military rise needs to be viewed through the prism of its demonstrated strategic behavior and whether any indications, even remote, exist to suggest, that it can turn around otherwise.

Overall, China at sixty presents an adverse external strategic image causing international concerns and disquiet.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila.007@gmail.com)

-Sri Lanka Guardian