“The present Indian engagement is primarily economic and development with low key security in terms of training. An opposing view seeks military presence. Most old hands know that combating militancy in an alien land is the toughest challenge as the Indian armed forces realized in Sri Lanka.”_________________
By Col. Rahul K Bhonsle
(October 04, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) A number of significant activities have taken place in Afghanistan during September such as recount of votes in the Presidential elections and the McChrystal report. The interview by Indian External Affairs Minister to the Wall Street Journal wherein he remarked, there is no military solution to the conflict in Afghanistan but “there could be a political settlement,” is also relevant. The UN Election Complaints Commission has commenced recounting votes. Recounting only a sample of votes in Afghanistan's disputed presidential vote may not address concerns of all parties.
The Abdullah Abdullah faction is hedging its bets for a sample vote count may or may not provide a clear indication of the level of fraud and the manner in which this has happened across the country. It is said that in some places there have been false voter lists, in others there are voters whose identity could not be established or who voted for others and still a third category where the votes are said to have been stuffed in the ballot boxes by agents of a particular candidate alleged to be Mr Karzai’s brother in some cases by Abdullah group.
There fore a sample recount may not be able to overcome the perception of fraud. It is apparent that to avoid a long period of instability the UN and the international community seems to have decided to get over with the elections process as early as possible so that the run off can be held if required this year prior to the winters or winner declared as the case may be. Will Abdullah Abdullah who is likely to be the loser in this bargain willing to compromise will determine the ultimate outcome of stability.
With the Afghan election results in limbo, the determination of many countries for staying on in the country would be impacted as this may seem a hopeless case where any investment would be negative. Thus the Taliban are likely to ensure that this sentiment is fostered across the board so that they gain advantage of wavering determination of states with limited support for deployment of troops in Afghanistan. The attack on Italian troops needs to be taken in that light and other NATO forces warned to avoid any adverse fall out.
US General Stanley McChrystal was concerned about increase in Indian influence thus, “Indian political and economic influence is increasing in Afghanistan, including significant development efforts and financial investment. In addition, the current Afghan government is perceived by Islamabad to be pro-Indian. While Indian activities largely benefit the Afghan people, increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions and encourage Pakistani countermeasures in Afghanistan or India.’’
The Prime Minister of India, Dr Manmohan Singh dispelled concerns that may have been expressed by the United States and European nations on Indian role in Afghanistan. In a Press Conference on his return trip from the G 20 Summit in Pittsburgh he stated, “The United States and other European countries have been very appreciative of the role that India has played in Afghanistan. We have not supplied any armed forces; we are there to assist Afghan people in reconstruction and development. We are helping to finance some of the most important projects in the area of power, road transport, health, education. Till today we have committed about 1.3 billion dollars. Not only the Government and the people of Afghanistan appreciated but whenever I have had an opportunity to discuss with the European leaders and the leaders of the United States, they have been of the same view”.
The present Indian engagement is primarily economic and development with low key security in terms of training. An opposing view seeks military presence. Most old hands know that combating militancy in an alien land is the toughest challenge as the Indian armed forces realized in Sri Lanka. The enormous good will that India has amongst the Afghan people is likely to evaporate due to natural antipathy that develops between counter militants and the populace subtly exploited by terrorists. A military “alliance” with forces following kinetic tactics as against the, “iron fist in velvet gloves” policy of the Indian Army will be hard to sustain at home.
India has welcomed successful holding of the Presidential and Provincial Council elections in Afghanistan on 20 August, 2009. Particularly the Afghanisation of the election process in which the elections were conducted by national institutions, unlike the previous elections has been appreciated. That this has led to fraud has however not been commented upon indicating the high degree of sensitivity to the Afghan sentiment unlike the comments made by Western governments and the media. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has in fact welcomed the announcement of the preliminary results of all the votes counted by IEC in which President Hamid Karzai has emerged as the leading candidate having secured 54.62%, followed by Dr. Abdullah Abdullah at 27.75%.
India is hopeful that U.N.-backed panel investigating fraud in Afghanistan's presidential vote will carry out a review and declare the results. There are adverse comments on the sampling technique planned to review the votes. While sampling is an effective technique for opinion polls and other such measures, unless it is accepted by both the contending parties concerned, Abdullah Abdullah the main challenger and Hamid Karzai who has already passed the 50 percent mark and is likely to lose in case the sampling results do not go in his favour, it may create more problems.
Indian authorities feel that an unsatisfactory candidate would add to the overall political uncertainty that continues to prevail in Afghanistan. There is therefore a concern that this should be avoided by having a second round if required before the winters. While this is understandable, taking the two main contenders on board would be necessary which has to be done publicly so that no retraction is possible at a later stage. This alone can guarantee that the results will be free and fair and acceptable to all rather than what may seem like error chasing.
Remaining engaged in Afghanistan is important for India, for the spread of Al Qaeda and the Taliban will destabilize an already unstable region. Given the current strategic configuration, aid and trade appears the key tools of engagement. Sharing our extensive counter militancy experience is another important facet. Our experience gives us an opportunity to speak and write more on Afghanistan contributing positively to the general debate. Three years, from 2006 when militancy commenced in earnest to date, is a short period in an insurgency where success is measured in terms of decades rather than years.
[Rahul K Bhonsle is a veteran soldier who has had a distinguished service career of over 30 years, during which period he has served with distinction in the Indian Army in all its outposts and operations. During this period he has had a wide and varied exposure to a number of important operational, training, logistics and academic assignments. He has simultaneously pursued a career in professional research and writing which has seen resulted in publication of over one score books, numerous articles and papers in reputed national and international journals and web sites. His academic qualifications include an M Phil in Defense and Management Studies and a MBA. He specializes in strategic and human security and future warfare. His latest book, “India Security Scope : 2006 The New Great Game” has been well received. Apart from his creative pursuits, Rahul is running an independent research agency, Security-Risks.com, which is dealing with strategic risk and knowledge management services in Delhi.]
-Sri Lanka Guardian
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