Maldives and geo-politics of India and Sri Lanka

By Satheesan Kumaaran

(August 31, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) Maldives is encircled by the geo-political ambitions of various states that strive to bring the entire Indian Ocean rim under their control for their own economic, political and security gains. It’s time for Maldivians to realize the effect of these countries’ ambitions will have on their very survival.

Maldives is a prime military and politically strategic location and, as such, this tiny island-nation in the Indian Ocean always seeks to maintain good relations with other countries in the region. Because Maldives is so tiny, most of the foreign diplomats in charge of the affairs of the island-nation work out of the embassies in Sri Lanka or India. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have resident embassies in Male, the capital city of Maldives.

Maldives, comprised of 1192 small coral islands grouped into 26 atolls, is an attractive tourist destination and, indeed, it is the tourism industry that generates the most revenue, besides fishing. Maldives is home to 369,031 (July 2007 census), Sunni Muslims, inhabiting 200 islands, plus 80 islands with tourist resorts, and so it is preoccupied with the effort to maintain the security of the region and embroiled in the era of fighting terrorism.

Maldivian oral tradition suggests that the first settlers were Dravidians who founded the Indus Valley Civilization, an ancient civilization that flourished in the Indus and Ghaggar-Hakra river valleys primarily in Sindh province of Pakistan and north western and western India, extending westward into Balochistan. The immigrants from Central Asia pushed these people into southern parts of India and its neighboring islands. Giravaaru islanders are classic examples of the people who migrated from western shores of Sri Lanka and claim ancestry from ancient Tamils. The Giraavaru people were just one of the island communities predating Buddhism, the arrival of a Northern Kingly dynasty and the establishment of centralized political and administrative institutions. Islam was introduced in 1153 AD. The Maldives came then under the influence of the Portuguese in 1558 and the Dutch in 1654. In 1887, it became a British protectorate. In 1965, the Maldives obtained independence from Britain, and, in 1968, the Sultanate was replaced by a Republic.

Maldives enjoys considerable political stability and excels in several spheres, including education and human development. His opponents claim that he is a dictator. The opposition parties have staged demonstrations on several occasions, including several in 2004 and 2006 that saw, hundreds of demonstrators killed. Gayoom promised he would bring democratic reform, but has yet to fulfill that promise. In the campaign to bring democratic reform to Maldives, India is a leading player. The officials of the Opposition parties pay frequent visits to India, in order to urge India to continue to play a leading role in democratic reform. Sri Lanka and India have opened their post-secondary institutions to accommodating Maldivian students. The Indian government provided the Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital (IGMH) in Male that has 200-beds, which was inaugurated in 1994, a well equipped medical service facility providing a wide range of secondary and tertiary need of the total population of the Maldives. However, India is also influenced by the fact that Gayoom is pro-Indian and does not want to alienate him.

Environmentally, Maldives is in great danger because its islands are nearly at sea level, making them very susceptible to rising sea levels. Maldives holds the record for being the flattest country in the world, with a maximum natural ground level of only 2.3 m, though in areas where construction exists this has been increased by several metres. Over the last century, sea levels have risen about 20 cm and the ocean is likely to continue rising, threatening Maldives’ existence. Depletion of freshwater aquifers also threatens water supplies, and increased global warming, increased sea levels and coral reef bleaching. However, the government has not taken steps to protect the Islanders from such dangers. Instead, Gayoom is busy working to please other powers to ensure his and his government’s survival.

As Maldivians face environmental consequences, India, Sri Lanka and others continue to invest in the Maldivian state purely for their own economic, political and security gains. The Maldivian government maintains political neutrality and, therefore, cooperates with all countries. It has a pro-India policy, but does not want to alienate China. In 2001, Maldives and China signed a deal allowing China to establish a naval base in Marao for the purpose of countering the rise of Indian and American naval forces in the region. This will definitely give the Maldivian government headaches in years to come, as India and the United States do not want a Chinese naval base on Maldivian soil; however, Maldives agreed to the deal because the nation needed the economic support of booming China. India is also uneasy about China’s recent declaration on March 4, 2008, to increase its defense budget for 2008 to $ 59 billion US, a rise of 17.8 per cent over 2007. A recent Pentagon report prepared for and presented to the US Congress on China’s military development has prompted India to formulate a counter-China policy, purely to counter China’s influence in the region. The Pentagon report put other Chinese neighbours on alert, as well. With this policy in place, India will play crucial role in the security of Indian Ocean rim, and Maldives and Sri Lanka will become hot spots.

Sri Lanka dominated trade with the atoll Maldivian state until the early 1970s, providing 65 percent of Male's imports from the South Asian region. By contrast, India's share was only 32 percent. Further, 10 percent of the country's exports were to Sri Lanka, whereas India’s share was a negligible 0.03 percent. As of 1988, it was Sri Lanka and not India that had a greater involvement with Maldives—economically, diplomatically, politically and culturally. Analysts argue that if one particular country wanted to maintain a good presence in the Indian Ocean that country would need to have great influence in Sri Lanka, which would in turn give it greater influence in Maldives because of the relationship between Maldives and Sri Lanka. China seems to have clued into this line of thinking because it has invested $ 1 billion US over the year in energy, infrastructure and other economic sectors in Sri Lanka, countering India’s investments there.

Sri Lankans and Maldivians also share close ties in the areas of history, culture and language. Linguistics suggests that the Maldivian language can be traced back to roots in Arabic and Sinhala, but more so with Sinhala than Arabic. India sees Maldives as a potential place for its naval practices in its bid to become an international superpower, and it is working hard to build its naval force into one of the finest navies in the world with sophisticated modern technologies to monitor the entire Indian Ocean and beyond. The first Prime Minister of India, Jawaharlal Nehru, advocated for his nation to build a strong blue-water navy that could control the entire Indian Ocean. Ensuing governments worked hard to fulfill the Nehru’s vision, and now India has one of the most well-equipped and well-manned navies in the world.

Maldives’ geo-strategic position makes it vulnerable to any military action in the region. This vulnerability was clearly demonstrated in the wake of militarization of the Indian Ocean and the heightening superpower rivalry in the 1970s and 1980s. In 1982, President Gayoom stated: "Let us not forget, the Portuguese invaded us because of strategic position. Many covetous eyes are focused on us right now for the same reason".

Maldives’ geo-strategic position has also been factored into its friendly relations with India. During the Cold War period, one of the cornerstones of India’s regional security policy was to prevent the involvement of extra-regional powers in South Asia. India considered any such involvement as inimical to its regional interests. In the 1980s, Sri Lanka sought to use Maldives’ (buttressed by a natural harbour, Trincomalee) by involving external forces to neutralize the India factor in the island’s security or insure itself against the perceived threat of India. Maldives considers India a friend in need, but does not want India’s intervention in their internal affairs because they assume India, with a population of approximately 1.1 billion people and the aspiration of becoming a superpower, may have sinister motives. In turn, India does not want antagonize Maldives because Maldives is a conservative Muslim state with great influence in the Muslim world, including India’s arch enemy, Pakistan. India wants to maintain good relations with Maldives which would, indeed, help India’s aspiration to become a superpower in the world or the policeman of the region.

Since its independence, Maldives has maintained a policy of not permitting the development of any military base by any world power with the exception of the Wartime British air base on its Gan Island in Addu Atoll continued until it was unilaterally given up in 1976. Following the British withdrawal in 1976, the Soviet Union submitted a proposal, via India, for access this abandoned military base, but Maldives rejected the proposal. The Soviet Union wanted to counter the American and British influence in the region. To date, the Diego Garcia atoll located in the heart of the Indian Ocean, some 1,500 km south off Maldives coast, is military home to both the U.S and the British.

After President Gayoom came to power, he adopted a multicultural and bilateral policy, which played a key role during the coup against him in November 1988. The coup was staged by the People’s Liberation Organization of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE), a group raised by India to fight the Sri Lankan government in the late 1970s and early 1980s. PLOTE was one of more than a dozen of Sri Lanka’s Tamil militant groups, all of whom took up arms to create an independent Tamil Eelam in Sri Lanka under their own leadership. Because the PLOTE opposed the Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka, the PLOTE decided to create a stable base by capturing Maldives; from there, it could launch military attacks against Sri Lanka, weaken the Tamil Tigers, and win independence for Tamil Eelam in Sri Lanka under the leadership of the PLOTE leader, Uma Maheswaran. Although all government departments and facilities, including Parliament, community towers, and radio and television stations were brought under the control of the PLOTE, President Gayoom managed to send an international appeal for political and moral support but sought military help only from India. In response, India sent its naval ships to Maldives, freed the tiny island-nation from the control of the PLOTE within 24 hrs, and handed the administration back to President Gayoom.

The government of Maldives continues to seek harmonious relations with all sides. Sri Lankan fishermen are allowed to illegally enter Maldives waters. Despite the protests of its own fishermen, the Maldivian government refuses to take action against the Sri Lankan fishermen because the Maldives considers Sri Lanka a genuine friend.

So, Maldives may be a battleground in the future, but not because of direct threat from Sri Lanka. The battle will come because other countries have a vested interest in the region. As a major regional player, India will spread its wings to counter the influence of countries like the Chinese on the neighbouring countries of Nepal, Bhutan, Burma and Pakistan, as well as the sensitive Kashmir region. India is more concerned about the south because it is the only way for India to keep the Indian Ocean under its direct control – brining with it billions of dollars worth of investments to India. This body of water truly connects people around the world.

In conclusion, all countries that thrive to bring Indian Ocean rim under their control whether for economic, security or political gains, need to maintain friendly relations with Maldives. To do that, they need to please Sri Lanka, thereby influencing Maldives to bow to their demands. India is a neighboring country with sinister motives and will use Maldives for its own gains, keeping its opponents, like Pakistan and China, at bay. Maldives is located very strategically in the Indian Ocean from an economic, security and political aspects, as well as for safe transportation of oil and gas resources. There is always the need to make new alliances in the current era of terrorism and counter-terrorism.

-Sri Lanka Guardian