“Then the diaspora organizations are recuperating. Sivaparan alias Nediyavan in charge of the Dept of Diaspora Affairs who has been controlling the overseas network of the organization may proclaim himself as the new leader or may even operate incognito given the increased threat of apprehension and continue to revive the organization abroad.”_______________
By Col. Rahul Bhonsle
(August 16, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) A singular lesson from defeating rebellions in modern times is that the death of a guerrilla movement occurs with extinction of its ideology and not merely its leadership and military organization. A second truth is that there is a very short time gap between neutralization of the armed force and successful political resolution of a conflict which can facilitate total extermination of an insurgency.
The Sri Lankan leadership political and military would do well to take note of these truisms as they grapple through the maze of processes to restore normalcy in the Northern half of the country. While military defeat of the LTTE has been followed up by neutralizing attempts by the diaspora for revival with apprehension of Selvarasah Pathmanathan or KP, its so called Secretary General, concrete steps towards a political solution to the vexatious Tamil dissension are not evident.
The government is now focusing on resettlement of the Internally Displaced or IDPs and reviving the political processes within the Tamil dominated areas by holding elections in the North just as it had done in the East. This two pronged approach is being possibly followed up with assuaging of Sinhala sentiment to prepare it for a rapprochement with the Tamils with possible resistance both from the conservative right wing as well as the left parties.
Under the circumstances Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa is said to have opted for a wait and watch approach till he is able to win a second term to office in elections which could be held some time in the beginning of next year as indicated by media reports and comments by close observers of the situation as Col R Hariharan. This would indicate that serious consideration of proposals under the now famous 13th amendment and 13 + or 13 ++ will begin some time in the middle of next year almost one year after decimation of LTTE military presence on the Island.
This gap may prove critical given that the LTTE retains its diaspora arms and the separatist sentiment remains insatiated both in the Tamil north as well as abroad. Thus while KP’s apprehension and subsequent interrogation may provide the government and intelligence much information, the Tamil Ealam issue remains open ended for too long for exploitation by its protagonists. Here are some trends which are ominous.
Firstly the recent elections in Jaffna and Vavuniya Municipal councils held on 08 August saw a low turnout virtually heeding the call for boycott by the LTTE exiles led by KP who was then free. The results also indicated some support for the Tamil National Alliance [TNA] affiliated parties.
While the ruling United People's Freedom Alliance secured a majority of 13 seats of the 23-member Jaffna Municipal Council receiving 50.67% votes, TNA constituent, Illankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK) won eight seats with 38.28% of the votes. In Vavuniya ITAK secured a majority of seats in the Vavuniya Urban Council with 34.81 percent votes. This could act as the trigger for revival of the TNA even as moderate leaders as Anandsangaree of the TULF could barely manage to win their own seat, thereby indicating which side the wind is blowing.
Then the diaspora organizations are recuperating. Sivaparan alias Nediyavan in charge of the Dept of Diaspora Affairs who has been controlling the overseas network of the organization may proclaim himself as the new leader or may even operate incognito given the increased threat of apprehension and continue to revive the organization abroad.
The diaspora is wide spread across many countries and though demoralized can be revived with concerted efforts which the LTTE operatives are well capable. Moreover little is so far known about post May 2009 activities of the Aiyanna Group which facilitated “financial support and revenue streams”, of the organization abroad as per a Jane’s report of 2007.
Then there are numerous news reports of arrests and apprehensions inside the Island including a van containing 20 claymore mines of 5 kgs each in Mannar whose driver was mysteriously released, a women suicide bomber lurking in Colombo and a high power bomb inside a culvert in Mahiyangana. So far intelligence has been forthcoming and a mishap has been averted, yet this indicates the strong resolve and residual capacity of remnants of the LTTE to trigger a major attack.
Recognizing the need for a speedy political solution India and the United States seem to be making concerted efforts to convince the Sri Lankan government as well as Tamil diaspora. US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Robert Blake and U.S. Chargé d'Affaires in Sri Lanka James Moore are said to have held a dialogue with the Tamils in the US only recently. India is linking more aid to an early political solution.
Yet flush after the recent military victory and an intelligence one of arrest of KP, the Sri Lankan government seems to be following a strategy of holding elections, resettling the IDPs and development of the North and the East which will not be enough for the core issue of assuaging Tamil aspirations remains unaddressed.
A mid course correction by the President and his advisors may therefore be in order for after a hard fought military victory an equally courageous political decision would be necessary and that too fast, for that alone can assure lasting peace on the Island before the LTTE is able to revive itself in the interregnum.
About Writer: Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle is a new columnist of the Sri Lanka Guardian. He is a veteran soldier who has had a distinguished service career of over 30 years, during which period he has served with distinction in the Indian Army in all its outposts and operations. During this period he has had a wide and varied exposure to a number of important operational, training, logistics and academic assignments. He has simultaneously pursued a career in professional research and writing which has seen resulted in publication of over one score books, numerous articles and papers in reputed national and international journals and web sites. His academic qualifications include an M Phil in Defense and Management Studies and a MBA. He specializes in strategic and human security and future warfare. His latest book, "India Security Scope : 2006 The New Great Game" has been well received. Apart from his creative pursuits, Rahul is running an independent research agency, Security-Risks.com, which is dealing with strategic risk and knowledge management services in Delhi. - Editor
This writer is making too much of the so called TNA "victory" where they would have lost totally if just 200 votes in Vavuniya had changed sides!!!!!
The TNA has money coming from the LTTE to keep it going.
There are Tamils in the Hills, Tamils in the East, and Tamils in the south, ie., the MAJORITY OF TAMILS, WHO DO NOT SUPPORT this TNA politics which is still the old LTTE mindset.
Could Col. Rahul Bhonsle kindly instigate a Tamil separatist movement in India? If this can be felicitated there will be no use for a political solution in Sri Lanka for Tamils. They'd happily give up seeking an Eelam elsewhere if a rightful Tamil Nation is granted in India.
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