Iran- Time to pull back

By Terry Lacey

(July 05, Jakrta, Sri Lanka Guardian) There are two kinds of history. The history that’s gets done to you. And the history you do to other people. If you are Iranian your view of history may depend on what has just happened to you in the events following the June 12th presidential elections.

Iranian election commission figures say Mr. Ahmedinejad won about 62 percent of the vote contrasted to nearly 34 percent for his closest competitor Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Many liberal and urban Iranians cannot believe these results because they saw pre-polls that showed much lower support for Ahmadinejad, amidst high inflation and high unemployment.
The US and Western banking and financial blockade of Iran is having an increasing effect with youth unemployment reportedly at 22 percent and inflation at least at 19 percent.

The country suffers from rural neo-feudalism, urban monopolies and widespread corruption. More than 9 million Iranians out of 70 million depend on government social security, even though GDP per capital is about $11,250 (by consumption) and $4,732 (nominal).

But the top 10 percent are making a fortune from the corrupt deals and import-export practices that always do well in a siege economy.

Final results from Iran's presidential election were announced by Interior Minister Sadeq Mahsouli, Saturday, who proclaimed incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad the victor with 62.6 percent of the vote. (Voice of America).

These results were similar to the much quoted pre-election telephone poll by Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty quoted in the Washington Post (15.06.09) that Ahmadinejad led by a 2 to 1 margin.

VOA also quoted a Tehran resident who expressed astonishment at the results of the election, saying he was sure that Mr. Mousavi had won. "80-90 percent of Tehrani voters were in favor of Mousavi," he said, but now, he said, he was shocked at the official results.

But the supporters of Ahmadinejad and the Iranian Islamic revolution are equally utterly convinced that they won a resounding victory.

Abbas Barzegar writing in the UK Guardian (13 and 15.06.09) helped explain that on the face of it Iran has become two nations with two different perceptions of reality.

One nation is poor, religiously pious, less educated, rural or in poorer areas of cities, and in Tehran on the south side. Barzegar explained they gained from the revolution, feel included in it, and remain convinced of its mixture of conservative theology and a degree of modernity.

The other Iranian nation is middle class, educated, tired of a poorly run economy, the party line, the political exploitation of Islam and an overly strict enforcement of Islamic dress and behavior, compared to most Muslim countries. In Tehran they live on the North side.

But it is not as simple as that. Iran cannot be reduced to black and white propositions. There are a lot more shades of grey.

Barzegar says he saw maybe 100,000 Mousavi supporters on the street during the election campaign, but he also saw 600,000 Ahmadinejad supporters trying to get to one enormous rally.

The protestors reportedly also got a million on the streets afterwards. To get a fair view of Iran we need more reporters who will report both set sets of facts and not half of them.

The reality is complex and there is no simple quick fix available.

Iran was severely divided politically before these presidential elections. The protests were backed by high political and clerical figures. The United Front backs the hard line but moderate Broad Front government supporters also seek a new foreign policy and internal reforms, along with opposition groups and independents.

The Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty phone poll also indicated large majorities, including government supporters, wanted an opening to the West and political and economic reform.

The political reality is that Iran has to bargain with the West to end a Western financial and banking blockade.

Time for both sides to pull back, to try and command events, instead of the reverse.

Terry Lacey is a development economist who writes from Jakarta on modernization in the Muslim world, investment and trade relations with the EU and Islamic banking.

-Sri Lanka Guardian