Close encounters of the seif kind

By Cyrus G. Robati

(June 20, London, Sri Lanka Guardian) It was back in the early 2000 when 37-year-old engineer Seif al-Islam, the elder son of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, opened up his big daddy's decision about giving up on WMDs, in Vienna -- where he earned an MBA and lives when he's not carrying out tasks for his father, or studying for a doctorate in political philosophy at the London School of Economics - saying his father had changed course because he had to. “Overnight we found ourselves in a different world,” said Seif, referring to the 9/11 attacks. “So, Libya had to redesign its policies to cope with these new realities.”

For several years there has been speculation that Mr Gaddafi might be cooking up Seif -- one of seven of Mr Gaddafi's sons and first by the second wife -- to succeed him as “Guide of the Revolution”. The rumours rained in after reports Mr Gaddafi had charged his son with some diplomatic missions to Arab countries on his behalf. Seif al-Islam (“Sword of Islam”), born in 1971, graduated in 1993 from capital Tripoli's al-Fateh University where he studied urban engineering. Currently he is heading the Gaddafi International Foundation for Charitable Associations and Development. He also chairs the National Consultancy in charge of drawing out plans for state projects as well as the National Anti-drug Association of Libya.

But Mr Gaddafi's Libya has had its share of struggles with secular and Islamist opposition movements, but favourable economic and demographic conditions coupled with a robust security and intelligence apparatus have allowed Tripoli to contain unrest. That no longer appears to be the case, however. In the past weeks, there have been rare incidents of unrest in the country's southeastern al-Kufrah region along the border with Egypt, Sudan and Chad, where members of the Tabu ethnic group rioted and attacked police stations. The Tabu has support from Chad, whose government recently defeated an insurgency of its own that was backed by Libya.

Given that this strife is taking place in a remote part of the country where the writ of the state is not as strong as it is in the population centres along the Mediterranean coast, the agitation does not make up a major threat to the regime's stability. The situation remains contained in the immediate term, but anger against the regime is not limited to a single region or a single communal group. The pending transition in power and the changes being pursued by the government have the potential to trigger unrest in the more densely populated northern areas. Up to 25 percent of university graduates reportedly are unemployed -- a potent ingredient for possible agitation against the regime.

And Mr Gaddafi, very much like his two most hated figures Saddam Hussein and Hosni Mubarak, is a man of his word when it comes down to dealing with home opposition and nagging politicians. Reporters Without Borders did report of one such ruthlessness by the regime torturing to death Libyan writer and journalist Daif Al Ghazal, who wrote articles critical of the regime for the London-based online newspaper Libya Al-Youm. Before his death, Mr Al Ghazal was kidnapped at around midnight by two armed men, who forced his car to a stop and took him away into their own vehicle. Mohammed al-Mirghani, a friend and fellow journalist who was with him at the time, was left unharmed. He said the two gunmen identified themselves as national security officials. An autopsy report referred to a string of signs of torture. Most of his fingers had been severed, and the body had multiple bruises and stab wounds. He had been finished off by a shot to the head.

Aged 32, Mr Al Ghazal worked for 10 years for the pro-government Movement of Revolutionary Committees (MRC) before leaving it in 2003 over a disagreement. The MRC defines itself as a “political and cultural movement supporting the installation of people's power” as per Mr Gaddafi's teaching. Mr Al Ghazal also wrote for four years for the daily newspaper, Al-Zhaf al-Akhdar (“The Green March”, in Arabic), which belongs to the MRC. But he then took a strong stand on the corruption prevailing within the MRC and decided to stop writing for the press tightly controlled by the government. Even the MRC newspaper, Al-Zhaf al-Akhdar, has been temporarily shut down several times for publishing articles displeasing the country's leaders.

Despite this entire dark picture, what has kept Libya going then? Its oil wealth -- it sits on reserves of 43 billion barrels of oil and is Africa's third largest oil producer -- and its small (and therefore easily controlled) population, which is now considered to be 6 million. But under the pressure of international isolation and the inefficiency of a peculiar brand of socialism, the various systems of the country -- education, health, transportation and so on -- are collapsing, and the country's infrastructure is in desperate need of restoration. There is an implicit acknowledgement on the part of Mr Gaddafi that the rules of his Green Book have failed. The largest threat to Libya's regime comes from within. There are tensions between the “old guard” and Seif - who has promised in three decades Libya will move to a more liberal economy -- with Mr Gaddafi trying to maintain a balance. Seif's recent move to retire from political life was designed to enhance his popular standing and to pressure the “old guard”, which sees its interests threatened by moves towards reform. The “old guard” members of Rijalal-Khaimah -- an informal power network advising Mr Gaddafi, such as Ahmed Ibrahim. That “old guard” (including the security establishment, the revolutionary committees, the tribes, and the economic elite) will be the source of problems as the state approaches transition time.

Given the advanced age of this cohort, the longer succession takes the fewer of these figures will be around to exercise an influence. Currently, central figures in the military and security field such as Colonel Abdullah Sanusi, head of military security, are said to be closer to Mr Gaddafi's second son, Moatessem Billah, making him a likely candidate. As an advisor to the National Security Council and commander of his own brigade, Moatessem wields some political power though he does not have complete control over the security services. He has also been increasingly participating in top-level meetings, accompanying his father to Russia in October and meeting American officials, including Condoleezza Rice, to discuss security issues back in 2007.

Because Moatassem has stopped from Seif-style public pronouncements, it is harder to speculate on his political world-view. Reportedly, Musa Kusa, head of the external security apparatus, serves as his mentor, and he is close to the “old guard” and less economically reformist than his brother. While his often quixotic father is prone to rambling speeches and antagonistic rhetoric, “crown prince” Seif is suave, a diplomatic trouble-shooter and usually gives short, precise answers to journalists, and is fluent in French, English and German. Unlike his younger brother Hannibal, who has had several scrapes with the European police for speeding and heavy drinking, Seif has so far not made any headlines for major scandals except for speaking of shaking off Libya's staunch socialist economy.

Shahram Chubin, Director of Studies at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, believes Mr Gaddafi is paving the way for a secure succession for his son. “I think that Libya -- and in particular its leadership -- are getting ready for succession. They must have recognised that it makes sense to bring Libya back into the fold of the international community, and to do that they had to dispense with these [weapons] programmes [in 2003] that they had been having for many, many years, which clearly serve no rational purpose. And I think it's a recognition by Mr Gaddafi that he wants to let his son succeed him and to leave Libya in a slightly better position after he got rid of these useless weapons, which created unnecessary distrust and suspicion on the part of its neighbours and, of course, the international community as a whole, including Britain and America,” Mr Chubin says.

With all that containment and concealment, it is scarcely any surprise to see the state -- unlike others in the Middle East and North Africa - empty of its own Jews, with the last one leaving its soil in 2003. Yet, a true-Hosni-Mubarak hater Mr Gaddafi -- or “Brother Guide” as he is known back home -- has found more old and new friends than foes since he admitted to denouncing evil designs against the West and America. And he has cemented ties with friends like Hugo Chavez, Vladimir Putin, Silvio Berlusconi and Nicolas Sarkozy.

Believe it or not, even in Benghazi, Libyans name their latest soccer stadium for Hugo Chavez. There is so much wrong in this that one does not know where to start. First, Señor Chavez is a baseball fan. The irony of a soccer joint called after him is just delicious. Though considering his advanced narcissistic pathology at this pointy such ironies must escape him. Second, why is Mr Gaddafi so intent on glorifying Señor Chavez anyway? After all he awarded him the Qaddafi peace and humanitarian price or something like that. Perhaps, Mr Gaddafi cannot find anyone else foolish enough to accept such award in the West. Or now that Señor Chavez is like Mr Gaddafi president-king, it is a mere case of asinus asinum fricat? Third, how much will these cost us? Not a meager question since knowing our Señor Chavez he will reciprocate with something like the Gaddafi museum in Sabaneta (Señor Chavez was born here too, actually) or something. Fourth, will that mean that Mr Gaddafi will visit Venezuela and plant his tent in Plaza Bolivar, or Parque del Este as he did in Rome this month and Paris two years ago?

Having steadily shed its rogue-state reputation, Libya has long had a strong taste for nuclear power with his prominent partners being Russia, France, Italy, Ukraine, Venezuela and Pakistan. He's been entertaining captains of Italian industry and concluding deals for future investments in joint ventures. Over the next 20 years Italy has agreed to pay Mr Gaddafi $5 billion in reparations for the misdeeds of 30 years of Italian colonial rule during the early years of the 20th Century. And the Italians are going to build and pay for a super-highway along the Libyan shore of the Mediterranean linking Egypt with Tunisia, though he's already planning to return to Rome next month to attend the G8 meeting and obviously finds his new friend Signor Berlusconi, a congenial and generous host.

In short, Libya is, like so many oil states before it, about to come into a significant fortune. The question being asked, therefore, is whether this newfound wealth can be used for the advancement of all Libyans, or whether the money will be squandered - or spent on more Russian, Ukrainian and North Korean arms shipments. Will oil be once again the “devil's excrement” as a Venezuelan founding father of the OPEC once described it?

-Sri Lanka Guardian