Time to win the peace

By Ajay Lele

(May 02, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) There are chances that the LTTE could bounce back, with or without Prabhakaran in another form, if the Sinhalas and President Rajapakse don’t show magnanimity in their hour of victory

In recent times, Iraq and Afghanistan have demonstrated that military victory over an insurgency prone State, or even a non-State, means nothing as a peace enforcing measure. So, whether or not the Sri Lankan Army's victory over the LTTE could bring peace to the island nation depends entirely on how President Mahinda Rajapakse's government wins the peace in the months ahead.

President Rajapakse launched his final offensive in the 25-eyar-old civil war with significant international backing. The world was well aware of the collateral damage it was causing. Still, Sri Lanka was able to justify the heavy bombardment. But this week, when the world is asking him to be reasonable and transparent he is not willing to listen. He has controlled the presence of the international Press at the battle zone and is not allowing neutral observers to visit the area. Most importantly, just a couple of days back, he rejected the United Nation's appeal to give civilians more time to leave a safe zone in the north-east.

Presently, the LTTE has been trapped in an area even less than 5 sq. km. From a purely tactical point of view, Rajapakse could be correct in not prolonging the operation as that could amount to giving the rebels time to escape or to regroup. However, is Rajapakse right from the humanitarian standpoint as well? At this time it is very difficult to estimate how many innocent civilians have been killed. There are conflicting reports; some are claiming that only few hundred may have got killed while another extreme view holds that a 'genocide' is going on. The claims could be varying but it is certain that many innocent and helpless Tamilian people are in mortal danger. They are sandwiched between the vendetta of the Sri Lankan Army and the suicidal tactics of the LTTE. It is estimated that more than 100,000 people have fled this area while many more may be still trapped in the war zone.

Officially, Colombo has announced the end of its military offensive and claims that combat operations using heavy weaponry are no longer under implementation. The troops are closing in over a 5 sq. km area where an estimated 20,000 civilians are being used as human shields by the Tamil Tigers.

The challenge for the Sri Lankan forces is to capture LTTE cadres in this no-fire zone (NFZ) region. There are reports that the LTTE is trying to use the sea route to flee and the Navy has already destroyed a few of their vessels.

The condition of the Tamil civilians who have somehow fled the conflict zone is extremely distressful. Food, medical facilities and shelters are woefully inadequate. There is a huge responsibility on the shoulders of the Sri Lankan and Indian governments to ensure that these 'children of a lesser God' get some human treatment. India has committed to send 90,000 family packets which could last for three weeks and cater to the food, shelter and medicinal requirement of the beneficiaries. New Delhi has also announced a grant of Rs 100 crore. India would also be giving medical aid. The UN humanitarian chief has also promised to provide $10 million to the war-displaced civilians. Many other countries are expected to pitch in.

The recent experience in various war zones or even with regard to natural calamities shows that world does come forward to the help of needy. The problem remains in correct and timely distribution of this aid. Also, it has also been found at times that some governments and agencies make tall claims over aid packages sent by them, but in reality they fail to deliver it. Under conditions of realpolitik, there is little that can be done to correct such aberrations, but the Sri Lankan authorities need to factor these realities into their aid distribution arrangements.

However, the biggest question that hangs over the humanitarian crisis is: what is the political package that the Sri Lankan authorities are ready to offer? No conflict could end without finding an amicable political solution. India needs to be proactive in this regard. India should not remain obsessed with the past and should emphasise to Sri Lanka that whatever the LTTE's approach, the demands they raised were legitimate.

The root cause of the dispute could be linked to the regional variations and socio-economic inequalities. The LTTE has never been ready to give up its maximalist position for a separate Tamil Eelam despite efforts by neutral governments to find an acceptable compromise. Now that it is out of the scene, it is important that Colombo moves fast to secure the confidence of other Tamil groups working within the contours of the Constitution.

Granted, it's not always easy to build bridges with a community that is licking the wounds of military defeat. There is a need to use the services of people like Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan, who goes by the nom de guerre "Colonel Karuna Amman" who is a former Prabhakaran aide. Being the Minister of National Integration and from the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA), he could play a vital role in bridging the gap. Also, pro-LTTE political parties like the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) could be engaged in a dialogue. India could help in this regard by using the good offices of Tamil Nadu politicians.

The issue of the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lanka Constitution has been debated for the past two decades. It is about sharing of power between the Tamils and Sinhalese. The Tamils feel that this is a trap because executive powers on education and police matters have been denied to them. The key issue is decentralisation of power. Currently, the model working in the eastern province is far from satisfactory. It is unlikely that there could be any acceptance for the 1988-2006 North-east province model. So, there is need to evolve a workable solution.

On the other hand, it would not be prudent to assume that we are seeing the end of the LTTE. It's too early to conduct its last rites. There is need to keep a check on pro-Tiger NGOs who could slip into the country masquerading as humanitarian aid workers. In the past, a few of these groups played important roles in helping the LTTE regroup after setbacks. Prabhakaran, or in his absence his son, are capable of starting afresh. They could get support from the Tamil diaspora which is justifiably moved by the reports of the Sri Lankan Army's atrocities.

So, President Rajapakse should remember that winning the war is one thing, but winning the peace is quite another. The former often seems easier to accomplish than the latter. Sincerity and broad vision stand between success and failure in this struggle.

-- The author is a Research Fellow with the Institute of Defense Studies and Analyses, Government of India

-Sri Lanka Guardian