By Ranjith Gunaratna
[The following are the strictly personal views of the writer]
(May 05, London, Sri Lanka Guardian) Over the course of last thirty years, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam [LTTE] had been waging a war in Sri Lanka with the aim of establishing a separate state for the Tamils. Today, as a result of strong counterterrorism initiatives and successful military operations of the Sri Lankan government, the military aspect of the conflict has already reached its conclusion. However, the question resonates in any average person's mind is, will the LTTE be able to hit back?
The two major factors that allow anyone to think about a possible next phase of the conflict are the international dimension of the LTTE and vibrant support of the Tamil Diaspora towards the separatist campaign of the LTTE.
According to the US State Department, the LTTE, which has funds in many countries, has sizable business dealings, including human and drug trafficking, weapons smuggling, and some legitimate businesses. Jane's Intelligence Review, which conducted a review of the LTTE in 1998, asserted that the LTTE businesses generate an estimated US$200 to 300 million per year. Certainly, this is a sizable income that could help them to sustain for many years. According to Dr. Rohan Gunaratna, from 1977 onwards the LTTE international network made inroads to countries where there was a Tamil presence. The expansion of the LTTE network after 1983 was meteoric, especially due to July riots in Sri Lanka. The LTTE has a far-reaching influence on the life of the Tamil community. In the case of its finance generation, as Dr. Gunaratna describes, since the loss of Jaffna peninsula in early 1996, 60% of the LTTE war budget is being generated from overseas. Today, towards final stage of its lost military campaign, almost 100% of its funds are generated overseas. Understandably, the LTTE has the capacity to maintain its global influence and continue with its campaign internationally for a foreseeable future.
The Tamil Diaspora, as highlighted by Dr.Pter Chalk, is said to be around 800,000. Their main functional support for the conflict is to generate funds and carry out LTTE propaganda.
The LTTE will find it extremely difficult to continue with its struggle further without steadfast support of the Tamil Diaspora, since it has lost its territories and military camps in Sri Lanka. The Tamil Diaspora is increasingly essential not only as a fund generating agent of the LTTE, but also as a powerful lobbying group that could influence the world opinion about the LTTE and the conflict in Sri Lanka. Therefore, the next phase of the conflict in Sri Lanka would obviously be based on the Tamil Diaspora.
In theory, by now, the Tamil Diaspora should have abandoned the LTTE for its historic and shameful failure. Surprisingly, even after the LTTE shattered the hopes of the Tamils accepting the military defeat, the Tamil Diaspora is seen giving unprecedented support to the LTTE as the principal sponsor of the separatist campaign. For example, during the last few weeks a large number of Tamils staged a number of demonstrations in support of the LTTE across many cities in the Europe. On certain occasions the number of participants has exceeded 10,000. They even went to the extent of attacking Sri Lankan Missions abroad. They have even destroyed properties of the Sinhalese community in some parts of Europe and physically assaulted them.
These activities are emitting signals about a beginning of some kind of "Tamil Intifada." Speaking to BBC, one Tamil Diaspora member participating in the demonstrations in London stated "the Sri Lankan government might defeat the LTTE but it will never defeat 1.5m Tamil Diaspora." The tremendous vigor displayed by the Tamil Diaspora during these demonstrations would force the Sri Lankan government to look beyond the military defeat of the LTTE.
Two reasons could be identified for the sudden upsurge of the Tamil Diaspora activities. In reality, a large number of Tamils around the world might have had the idea of becoming a proud member of a separate state for the Tamils in Sri Lanka. However, the military offensives have shattered their dreams. The other reason is disseminating of contradictory and falsified information about the plight of the civilians trapped in the conflict zone. Such information would obviously have tempted them to display their solidarity towards their relatives in the conflict zone. Their mentality is similar to that of the Palestinians in the Gaze region. It seems that, like Tibetans, Kurds, or Palestinians, the Tamil Diaspora would attempt to undermine the credibility of the government of Sri Lanka while supporting the LTTE internationally. In this context, the Sri Lankan government would face severe challenges when confronting the LTTE internationally, especially because of the unreserved support of the Tamil Diaspora for the LTTE.
There is a mammoth task before the government of Sri Lanka. It has to concentrate heavily on development of the regained areas ensuring security and establishing much needed democratic institutions in order to expedite the process of resettling the displaced people. The manner in which the government of Sri Lanka handles the situation at home would help win over the Tamil Diaspora and negate international support for the LTTE. More importantly, sound political settlement to the conflict would force the Tamil Diaspora to re-evaluate the viability of the secessionist campaign of the LTTE. As Robert Templer pointed out, there are disturbing signs that a new generation of young Tamils in the United States, Canada, Britain, Europe, and India are being radicalized. We should not forget the fact that during the recent demonstrations, the Tamil Diaspora never demanded the LTTE to release the trapped civilians. Yet, they demanded the government of Sri Lanka to cease the operations. This is an indication how seriously the Tamil Diaspora has swallowed the fantasized doctrine of the LTTE.
With regard to international responses to the world wide protests of the Tamil community against Sri Lankan government, some notable new developments can be identified. The French government has arrested 212 protesters and Canadian government has refused to talk to the protestors. Many other governments have dispersed the angry protestors. Apparently, these governments are not ready to tolerate the politically and ethnically pro-active Diaspora in their countries supporting terrorist groups. This new situation helps the government of Sri Lanka to solicit support of other countries to thwart any attempt by the LTTE to carry forward its separatist agenda internationally. Conclusively, the Tamil Diaspora is an explosive factor that should be handled very carefully in the path towards terrorism free Sri Lanka. Wining the Tamil Diaspora is the key to a comprehensive victory.
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Tamil Diaspora and the next phase of the conflict in Sri Lanka
By Sri Lanka Guardian • May 05, 2009 • • Comments : 3
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The Tamil Diaspora effort is driven by the power of propaganda and money. Once the war is over, the focus of the propaganda will have to move elsewhere. If the diaspora can use mercenaries to destabilize SL, hire killers and suicide bombers, the battle would go on. We tamils living in Sri lanka will have to bear the brunt of the whiplash of the majority community. As a Tamil living in a Colombo suburb, I appeal to the Diaspora to keep its hands off our affairs. The Chelvanaygam-Ponnambalam generation messed it up for us. Now their grandchildren are trying to continue the immoral game.
This very good article about the very active Tamil Diaspora who are extremely being misled and radicalized by the LTTE, and overall view on current situation and beyond it, is a warning for SL government to get ready for the next stage of eradication of terrorism from Sri Lanka.
I don’t believe that anyone can compare the situation to Palestine or Tibet situation. Sri Lanka has never been two separate countries or has never been divided into two countries.
Once the heat of the military rhetoric dies down and the reality dawns that Sri Lanka, like Israel has arrived at a level of decisive capability in defending her territories, a different group think will start to emerge. Of course there will always be those who will want to start the next war and the next uprising. These may even happen, when a stern response can be expected from the government.
Gradually the looking for solutions somewhere in the middle of the road will start to take shape. But then the diaspora will find the 'middle path' already occupied by those who they consider traitors, such as Devanayagam and Anandasangaree in leadership situations. On their side, Sri Lanka must do their best to keep these moderate folks in safety, since a rabid reaction against them is likely to be the next focus of the overseas tamil diaspora.
When all that fails, and the economic activity within Sri lanka start to bring prosperity to tamils still in the economically deprived regions, the overseas tamils will gradually start to lose interest in a conflictual resolution such as seperation.
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