One-horse race in Jakarta's July polls

By Cyrus G. Robati

(May 29, London, Sri Lanka Guardian) Indonesia is the best example of Benedict Anderson's idea of the “imagined community”. The formation of the nation was obviously based on multiculturalism and democracy and dedicated to avoiding any kind of tyranny. The country has been built on a “social contract”, in which diversity is a national asset and every single individual has equal rights as a citizen.

The fact that Islamic political parties did not get the majority of votes is another instance of how religious bonds do not mean everything. It proves that the “imagined community” for most Muslims is actually not a state with a certain religious label. Instead of having a sectarian state, they have voted to have a more egalitarian one in which differences are common and accepted. This is of course not about being a good Muslim, as Islam allows its followers to make their own choices. After all, there are many schools of thought and factions within the Muslim community.

It is then, inevitably, about the willingness to accept something. The Islamic parties, especially the leaders, do not need to feel disappointed and drop their support for a more nationalist based government. They should see the diversity as a rahmat (blessing) from the universe. The paradigm should be more moderate and not consist only of only a centre and peripheral(s), but be comprised of unnumbered entities. They have to learn how to celebrate differences.

And now that the competing teams for the presidential poll on July 8 have now been settled, at first glance voters seem to face a hard choice. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is up against both his predecessor, Megawati Sukarnoputri, and his deputy, Jusuf Kalla. All are secular politicians who have eschewed the chance to broaden their appeal by picking a vice-presidential running-mate from an Islamic party.

Mr Yudhoyono, a former general, has selected Boediono, the respected governor of the central bank, who has resigned to run for the office. Ms Megawati has teamed up with Prabowo Subianto, another former general, one-time son-in-law of Mr Suharto, the late dictator, polo-player and populist. Mr Kalla's running-mate is Wiranto, yet another Suharto-era general.

On closer inspection, however, it looks like a one-horse race. Ms Megawati has failed to use her five years in opposition to re-establish herself as a potent political force after Mr Yudhoyono soundly beat her in 2004. Her approval rating in one recent opinion poll was only 15 percent. And, judging from the protracted negotiations needed to seal her partnership with Mr Prabowo, their alliance is far from solid.

Mr Kalla can justifiably claim to be a man of action, with a record of achievement in office, particularly on economic issues, and as a peacemaker who helped broker the end to a separatist conflict in the province of Aceh in 2005. But his approval rating is only 2 percent. Moreover, Golkar, his party, is deeply divided. Many party bigwigs seem busier plotting Mr Kalla's removal as chairman than backing his presidential bid. And Mr Wiranto, the object of an international arrest warrant for his role in the violence in East Timor in 1999, could be as much of a liability as an asset.

Mr Yudhoyono, in contrast, is riding high. His approval rating is about 70 percent and he is having a good cash crisis. In selecting the apolitical Mr Boediono he sent a clear message to the Islamic parties and the nation as a whole that, with his Democratic Party now the biggest in parliament, he intends to call the shots. The party has only 26 percent of the seats, so he will need others' backing. But this year, unlike 2004 when it won just 8 percent of the seats, the coalition will be built on his terms.

Many analysts are now debating not whether Mr Yudhoyono will win, but only whether he will do so in the first round or require a run-off in September. According to the present polls, one round should suffice and complacency could be his biggest threat. The financial markets are already assuming he is going to win. Surprises cannot be ruled out. Before April's parliamentary election, for example, hardly anyone predicted the presidential contest would turn out like this. But with seven weeks to go the presidency is increasingly looking like Mr Yudhoyono's to lose.

Ms Megawati and Mr Subianto have already made their presidential bid declaration at a rubbish tip in Bantar Gebang. A few days ago they addressed an estimated 50,000 supporters, most wearing the party's red, crowded into a one-hectare lot amid the stench of rubbish at a waste disposal site on the outskirts of capital Jakarta. Under a scorching sun, parents with young children and babies vied for position among the crowd as a flag the size of half a football field was stretched to cover a mountain of refuse. Supporters held aloft party placards and banners bearing the smiling faces of Ms Megawati and Mr Prabowo.

In her less than five-minute speech, the head of the Democratic Party of Struggle claimed that her candidacy with Mr Prabowo was supported mostly by common people like farmers, refuse collectors, hawkers and fishermen.

“We've got lots of support from farmers, garbage pickers, traders that have come to this place. Their voices have called me to rebuild this country,” Ms Megawati told the cheering crowds.

Her running mate, the Gerindra party chairman, critised the economic system adopted by current government. “We are ready to bring a big change to this country in favour of Indonesian people. The Indonesian economy must be returned to the people's hands. We will fight together with people for justice and prosperity,” he said.

Meanwhile, Ms Megawati has put her faith in the former head of the country's notorious Kopassus Special Forces to be her running mate in the elections. The Megawati-Prabowo ticket is being touted as the biggest rival to Mr Yudhoyono.

-Sri Lanka Guardian