Endgame

By Ajit Kumar Singh

(May 04, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) With the 58th Division troops entering the Government designated new No Fire Zone (NFZ) in the early hours of April 20, 2009, capturing a three kilometre-long Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)-built earth bund in the Putumattalan and Ampelavanpokkanai areas of the NFZ in Mullaitivu District, and liberating some 39,081 civilians, Eelam War IV entered into its final phase.

The Cabinet Spokesman, Information and Media Minister Anura Priyadharshana Yapa, declared, on April 30, 2009, that the Security Forces (SFs) had already liberated between eight or nine kilometres of the 12 kilometre-long NFZ. Meanwhile, President Mahinda Rajapakse, on the same day, declared that the Government’s aim was to liberate the remaining civilians inside the NFZ within the ‘next five or six days’.

Notably, Colombo had demarcated an estimated 20 square kilometres of a new NFZ with a varying breadth of one to two kilometres along the Mullaitivu western coast with effect from February 12, 2009. Earlier, the Government had, on January 21, 2009, designated a 32 square kilometre NFZ – eight kilometres in length and four kilometres in breadth. However, the LTTE rejected the provision with contempt, moving its heavy artillery batteries and mortars into the NFZ, using civilians huddled in the area as a shield against military action by the SFs.

The United Nations (UN) and foreign Governments have been putting immense pressure on Colombo to halt military operations, as reports emanating from the NFZ indicate large numbers of civilian casualties inside the NFZ. In any realistic scenario, the NFZ could not, in fact, have remained a safe zone, as it falls on the line of the Army’s advance and its capture was necessary for the logical conclusion of military operations against the LTTE in the North.

According to an April 30, 2009, Tamil Net report, the pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance (TNA) party’s Trincomalee District Member of Parliament, R. Sampanthan, and parliamentarian Suresh Premachandran, told the visiting British Foreign Secretary David Miliband that 7,000 Tamils in Wanni had been killed and 14,000 injured in the preceding three months. The TNA parliamentarians also told Miliband that more than 300 Tamil youth in the Vavuniya detention centre had been arrested by the Sri Lanka Army (SLA) and that the SLA has not revealed the whereabouts of these detainees to their parents.

Earlier, on April 25, The Times of India reported that at least 6,432 civilians had been killed in intense fighting over the preceding three months, and that 13,946 had been wounded, according to a private United Nations (UN) document circulated among diplomatic missions in Sri Lanka. Casualties were reported as "verified data" in the document. The UN has declined to publicly release its casualty figures and had no immediate comment on the document. The level of civilian deaths increased dramatically as the fighting wore on, according to the UN. An average of 33 civilians were killed each day at the end of January, a number that jumped to 116 by April, it said. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal database, fatalities among civilians in Mullaitivu since January 1 stood at 3,905. A total of 2,285 militants and 1,288 soldiers had also been killed in the fighting. (SATP data is currently primarily based on figures released by the pro-LTTE Website Tamil Net, since the Government is not releasing figures regarding civilian and SF casualties in the region. There can be no independent confirmation of data, as media access is denied in the conflict zone).

The International Committee of Red Cross (ICRC) claimed, further, that conditions had deteriorated in the conflict zone in recent days. "The fighting is too close to civilians, who are too often killed or wounded", ICRC spokesman Simon Schorno stated on April 23, 2009, adding, "There have been hundreds of dead and wounded in recent days." Of the 400 people the ICRC managed to evacuate on April 22, the majority were seriously wounded.

Under immense pressure from the international demand and, crucially, from an election-bound India urging an immediate cease-fire, Colombo – which had earlier rejected the April 26, 2009, LTTE announcement of a unilateral cease-fire – on April 27 declared that ‘combat operations’ against the LTTE had reached their conclusion and that troops had been instructed to end the use of heavy weapons, which could harm the civilian population. However, rescue missions to free the remaining estimated 20,000 civilians would continue. The Director-General of the Media Centre for National Security, Lakshman Hullagulle, stated, "There is no ceasefire. The Government will go ahead with their operation to get the civilians out of the 'No Fire Zone', who are being held hostage by the LTTE." Quite noticeably, the SFs had already ceased using heavy calibre guns, combat aircraft and aerial weapons since April 20, when they entered the NFZ.

Commenting on Colombo’s decision, the noted former Indian military intelligence official, Colonel R. Hariharan clarified that "the war has not ended with the latest Sri Lanka announcement. The operative words in the statement indicating future course of action is: 'Our security forces will confine their attempts to rescuing civilians who are held hostage and give foremost priority to saving civilians.’ In Sri Lanka's official parlance that means the war would continue because it has always claimed that the objective of the war is to liberate the people held hostage by the LTTE. So the war would continue probably at a slower pace, perhaps less dramatically, provided the LTTE can still sustain (itself)."

Meanwhile, Government sources put the total number of civilians still trapped inside the NFZ anywhere between 15,000 and 20,000. Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama told a news conference in Colombo on April 23 that the Government’s assessment of the number of civilians inside the NFZ was based on its own inputs and the statements made to the military by the LTTE media wing in-charge, Daya Master, who surrendered on April 22. Significantly, on February 11, 2009, the Government had claimed that over 32,500 civilians, out of a total population of 113,832 in the Mullaitivu District, had fled the un-cleared areas (areas not under Government control) and sought protection with the SFs. If that data is to be believed, the number of civilians remaining in LTTE-held area as of February 12, 2009, should be about 81,332. However, an April 28, 2009, The Hindu report, quoting Government sources, reported that over 180,000 civilians who were held hostage by the LTTE had been rescued since January 2009 – well over the 113,832 total population claimed by the Government. Of them, nearly 115,000 were freed since the beginning of the rescue mission that begun on April 20, 2009. A close analysis of the data provided by the Government at different stages would suggest at least some obfuscation, and the fact that Colombo is eager to keep estimates of the civilian population trapped in the NFZ low. Significantly, on April 29, the UN Under Secretary for Humanitarian Affairs, John Holmes, addressing a Press Conference in New York, asserted that about 50,000 people were reported to be trapped in the combat zone.

Whatever the precise numbers, with a large body of civilians still trapped inside the shrinking war zone, the terminal stages of the conflict are bound to get bloodier. The Tigers, for whom civilians are part of their concept of war, are not going to let non-combatants flee. The more the civilian casualties, the greater the opportunities to draw international attention through the LTTE propaganda machinery, which still seems to be intact, in turn putting pressure on Colombo to stall military operation. Any diminution of military pressure would create opportunities to get as many LTTE leaders and experienced operatives out of the tiny NFZ in the northeast. Reports also indicate that the LTTE leadership, including Chief Velupillai Prabhakaran, is getting ready to flee the country. Six high powered boats and another five boats packed with ration packets are believed to have been prepared, awaiting the opportunity to break through the Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) blockade. However, SLN surveillance to track LTTE movements remains intense round the clock and there has been an augmentation of the presence of its small craft in the seas off the North-east coast. Since April 1, 2009, the SLN has foiled five attempts by the Sea Tigers (the sea wing of the LTTE) to break through the blockade, killing 85 militants and destroying 15 LTTE boats. Meanwhile, Tamil Net claimed on April 29 that at least 350 soldiers had been killed and over 700 injured, as heavy fighting erupted between the troops and militants in the area north of Mullivaaykkaal in the NFZ, demonstrating that the Tigers, though cornered, with their conventional military capability lost, still have their command and control system intact, and consequently retain significant residual capacities to inflict damage.

Colombo appears to be determined to carry the military operations to a decisive victory. On April 30, President Rajapakse declared, "The Government is not ready to enter into any kind of cease fire with the terrorists. It is my duty to protect the people of this country. I don’t need lectures from western representatives.’’ Earlier on April 29, Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse had told British Foreign Secretary David Miliband that troops and civilians had perished in the conflict and, therefore, the Government was determined to finish off the LTTE." The Island newspaper quoted Rajapakse as telling Miliband, further, that, ‘the only person who could stop this war is the President of Sri Lanka. The military had orders to either capture or destroy Prabhakaran and other LTTE leaders.’

The war is now in its penultimate moments, but it remains to be seen how clear the outcome will be. If the Tiger leadership, and particularly Prabhakaran, succeed in slipping out of the SF cordon, the spectre of an LTTE revival, however partial, will loom large once again, and Sri Lanka will remain under the shadow of violence.

The writer,Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

-Sri Lanka Guardian