Time to rewrite the Sri Lanka agenda - Part I

By Col R Hariharan

(April 15, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian) The Sri Lanka security forces appear to be completing out what they set out to do in early 2006 – militarily defeat the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). After three days of fierce battle they captured of the last of the LTTE stronghold in Anandaapuram in Puthukkudiyiruppu area on April 5 the LTTE are left with only the 20 sq km “No fire zone.” Ideally, they would like to get out of the area by both land and sea to safer pastures.

The last major operation was a bloody one where the body counts had been high. The LTTE is have suffered over 500 dead including almost the cream of senior commanders. Confirmed figures of the security forces’ casualty are not known, but likely to be high. Militarily they also appear to have lost their major artillery weapons including 130mm guns and anti aircraft weapons. Thus the security forces have overwhelmed the LTTE not only physically, but also psychologically, as it would take a long time to recover its strength again.

Some pointers

However, it would be useful for Sri Lanka to look beyond the final military victory and draw some pointers for its future course of action.

• The immediate issue is saving over 100,000 of Sri Lankan non combatant people, regardless of their language and beliefs, trapped in the “safe zone” that had not ensured their safety. Over 2500 of them appear to have perished in the area as the two warring sides do not appear to have shown adequate sensitivity to their safety in pursuing their own military goals. Even if Sri Lanka disputes the numbers involved it has the responsibility as an elected government to get them out safely.
• There had been massive demonstration of Tamils all over the world – in almost all metros of the world – for a ceasefire to save the civilians in the safe zone. And the issue has almost found unanimous political support in Tamil Nadu, the home of sixty million Tamils of India. Just because some LTTE acolytes displayed carefully modified LTTE’s red flags at these rallies and raised some slogans in support of Tamil Eelam the sentiment behind the rallies should not be ignored or denounced as LTTE propaganda ploy. There is genuine concern among Tamils all over the world, including this author, regarding their safety. This includes even those who do not subscribe to the LTTE goals or methods. It would be a folly for Sri Lanka to ignore their sentiment.
• The battle at Aanandapuram has shown the strong motivation of the LTTE cadres to carry on the fight even in the face of sure death. That shows that mere territorial victory or high body count or capture of heavy military hardware is unlikely to prevent regeneration of the LTTE particularly as both the LTTE chief V Prabhkaran and his second in command Pottu Amman appear to be still at large. The Sri Lanka government needs the support of the Tamil expatriates the world over to prevent the rise of the LTTE or its clone in some other name. That could happen sooner than later as Prabhakaran is sure to cash in on the wave of public sympathy among Tamils for their kin in trouble.
• Almost all nations, who had supported Sri Lanka’s war either overtly or covertly because they were averse to the LTTE’s goals and methods, have highlighted the need for Sri Lanka to take adequate steps to ensure safety of trapped civilians. And UN agencies and interlocutors have also expressed the same opinion. There is no point in finding fault with their views. It is for Sri Lanka to disprove their opinion is incorrect by taking adequate visible action. It will be good to remember that all of them including the much maligned Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have denounced the LTTE vehemently for its attitude and actions in this regard. And Sri Lanka needs all their support, particularly its friends – India, the EU, UK, USA and Canada – if it has to prevent the resurrection of the LTTE once and for all. This overall goal should not be confused while members of the government make statements at will denouncing them.

Immediate agenda

Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa has proved that he could militarily do what he promised. But it is time he revisited his agenda to deliver on the “freedom” he promised the Tamil people while reneging the peace process 2002.

To quote a well-worn statement once again, military victory is not the final act in counter insurgency warfare. The victory comes fully when the government is able to win over the people who had supported the insurgents. This time-consuming battle to win over the minds that have indelible memories of grievous personal losses is yet to start. Shorn of all political and military rhetoric that should be President Rajapaksa’s purpose of the new agenda. It has two parts – immediate and long term.

The immediate agenda should be to extricate the civilians trapped in the “No Fire zone.” With the LTTE in the midst of civilians it is going to be a messy affair when the security forces close in. The aim should be to minimize the civilian casualties with the selective use of heavy firepower and avoid air strikes. No one outside the government is confident that the security forces are addressing this requirement. So it would be useful if greater access were provided to representatives of media and selected NGOs. This is unlikely to compromise the ongoing operations when the LTTE has reeled under grievous losses. At worst, it might prolong the operation but it would help Sri Lanka improve its credibility. And militarily the final results are not going to be affected if Sri Lanka agrees to give a sufficiently long pause of its operations. That would compel the LTTE to come to terms with the reality and send a strong message to the international community.

The trapped civilians are scared of their treatment at the hands of the security forces manned mostly by Sinhalas. More of them would walk out of the area if they are confident of fair treatment. Over 60,000 people, who had fled from the LTTE areas, are now housed in camps run by the army. The army is involved in the time consuming process of screening them to weed out LTTE cadres and active supporters among them. This has given rise to a lot of suspicion among some of the NGOs and sections of public about the purpose of these camps. To create a climate of confidence, Sri Lanka government should implement the suggestions of the UNHCR regarding these persons. The key elements of the suggestion are: handing over control of these camps to a civilian agency even as the army continues its screening process, providing external access a little more liberally to the inmates, house the 3000 LTTE cadres in their midst separately, and a more humane approach to resolve problems of split families, the sick, infirm and the wounded.

Speedy completion of the screening process should not be too difficult for the military intelligence now that the war is on its last legs. The early return of these people to their villages to resume normal life would be biggest public expression of fair treatment extended to Tamils not only among the Tamil population everywhere but also in the international community.

(Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90.He is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail:colhari@yahoo.com)

-Sri Lanka Guardian