By Nilantha Ilangamuwa - Islamabad(March 13, Islamabad, Sri Lanka Guardian) Analytical views of military specialist Dr Ayesha Siddiqa Agha came to our focus when we discussed the situation in Pakistan in the wake of the shocking attack on the Sri Lankan Cricket team with a friend at the well-known Pakistani paper, The Dawn.
She is very popular in Pakistan as a military specialist and she has worked with Pakistan military for few years.
After a few hours I contacted her with warm greetings and a request to discuss the present situation in Pakistan as well as the South Asian affairs.
Here are excerpts of our discussion:
01. Well…I’d like to talk with you about several events in South Asia, but especially starting with Sri Lanka because that’s where this newspaper is from. What is your reading conflict in Sri Lanka?
Ans: I spent about twenty days in Sri Lanka in 2006 studying the Island’s politics especially civil-military relations. I have been studying the conflict since then. My perception then was that Sri Lanka’s political leadership is highly myopic and predatory that has failed to bring the society together. It is not about the past few years but about several decades after the creation of an independent Sri Lanka. The conflict might be favorable for Colombo, but the military option or success in military operations will not solve the problem in the long run.
02. Is Pakistan fuelling the War in Sri Lanka?
Ans: Pakistan has nothing to do with fuelling the war. If Colombo is hell bent on using force against its political rivals, it will get weapons from anywhere. From the perspective of the central government in Colombo, weapons from procured from Pakistan are great help. But from the point of view of the Tamil these weapons fuel war on the Island.
03. After the terrorist attack on the Sri Lankan Cricket team, Pakistan Government and the Government of India again started the blame-game like they did after the Mumbai attacks last year. Interior Advisor of the Government of Pakistan, Rehman Malik, told the National Assembly Standing Committee on Interior recently that there is no evidence of the LeT's involvement and hinted that there was a a foreign hand behind the attack on Sri Lankan team. Meanwhile India strongly says LeT could be behind the attack. What is your assessment on these blame-games?
Ans: I believe it was later cleared that Rehman Malik was pointing out the possible inclusion of the Al-Qaeeda and forces like Lashkare Jhangavi rather than LeT. However, there were many who want to blame India for the Lahore attack. This is a representation of years of India-Pakistan rivalry.
04. Meanwhile Pakistan claimed that India was using the Afghan soil against Pakistan. Is this true or not?
Ans: Apparently, there is some evidence of Indian intelligence agencies assisting the insurgency in Baluchistan which makes Pakistan’s military hugely nervous. Although there is no evidence of the presence of 19 Indian consulates in Afghanistan along the Pakistani border, the important factor is the deep sense of insecurity that Pakistani security forces feel vis-à-vis India.
05. There are so many allegations that the ISI, the Pakistan intelligence and R&AW, Indian external intelligence, have been involved in destabilising the region of South Asia. Someone says ISI has been funding the activities of Islamic fundamentalists and some other terrorist groups like Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka. Even especially Pakistan scholars claim that the R&AW had been funding to some terrorist groups in the region. How do you see these developments?
Ans: India and Pakistan’s intelligence agencies have battled each other on behalf of the states. We see both agencies engaged in a covert cold war fought in other countries of the region as well.
05. You have been a civil servant for 11 years during which you were asked to work as the Director of Naval Research with Pakistan Navy making you are the first civilian and a woman to work at that position in Pakistan's defence establishment. You also worked as a deputy director in Audit Defence Services Lahore Cantt. What do you think about the power of females and their activities in South Asian region because there are allegations that, generally, South Asia is a male dominated place.
Ans: South Asia can boast of female heads of states that even the US cannot do. However, this does not make the societies less male dominated. In fact, given the rising militarization in most South Asian socities women are under greater pressure and face more violence. Even the female leadership has not changed the fates of our societies.
06. You are the author of several books including, “Pakistan's Arms Procurement and Military Buildup”, “In Search of a Policy” and “Inside Pakistan's Military Economy”. Most of your papers have also been based on Pakistan military. Please let us know your assessments on the military, economy and political power of Pakistan?
Ans: Pakistan is a medium-sized military power with nuclear weapons. But the more noticeable feature is that its professional military is a major political actor with major stakes in the economy and the society. While the militarization of the society makes acceptance of the military possible in the society, it has a deep political role. The military’s economic power, which includes both the defense budget (over 25 percent of CGE) and the undisclosed economy that I call MILBUS with an estimated worth of over US $ 20 billion. The Pakistani military is fundamentally different from the Indian military that operates through the political leadership and cannot claim the autonomy that the Pakistani military enjoys.
08. Do you think there are any prominent leaders who can establish peace and harmony in Pakistan?
Ans: Unfortunately, at this juncture Pakistan badly lacks a visionary leadership. None has a vision to establish institutions, correct the civil-military balance and bring peace in the region.
09. Nuclear scientist Dr. A.Q. Khan was released recently from house arrest. Do you think, he created new history for Pakistan?
Ans: One cannot disregard AQ Khan’s contribution in contributing to the uranium enrichment process. However, he is not the only scientist and definitely not the father of the bomb as many want to call him. It is also a fact that he was responsible for proliferation even though he was not the only one involved. He had no right to take the country for a ride.
10. What is your assessment on Obama administration and south Asian affaires?
Ans: For Obama’s administration there are two critical points in South Asia. On the one hand are majority of unstable states that raise concern but not interest in the region. Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh fall in this category. On the other hand, is India which the Obama administration wants to engage with mainly because the American public perception regarding the country has changed over years and through an intense intellectual process. President Obama will want to build links with India on a positive note. As for the rest of the region, a lot will depend on what these countries have to offer for the US to get positively interested in these.
11. There are many root cases of terrorism in South Asia. But recently we saw the Maoists turning to democratic path in Nepal. They won their revolution against the monarch. But many rebel groups are losing their archive of struggle and continue ruthless attacks on civilians. How do you analyse this horrible situation?
Ans: If you look specifically at Nepal then it is not just an issue of loose non-state actors or the Maoists but peculiar state policies of neighboring states. For instance, India has huge stakes in the country and continues to interfere in and destabalize Nepal’s politics. There are gangs and mafias in Nepal that are connected with and fed by Indian intelligence services.
12. India and Pakistan are two nations who have nuclear power in South Asia. What will happen next?
Ans: So far deterrence between the two South Asian nuclear rivals has worked. However, a lot depends on the internal stability of the two states. I am not suggesting that the control of nuclear weapons will be lost to unsavory characters in wither of the two states or they will have lax control, but internal instability will make future conflicts much more risky for the two nations and the entire region. What is even more problematic as far as the region is concerned is the general inability of leadership in the region to engage with the public to resolve conflicts. South Asia will remain an unstable region unless political issues are resolved. -Sri Lanka Guardian
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