Provincial Council Verdicts in Sri Lanka Transcend War Euphoria

By Philip Fernando Contributing Analyst for Sri Lanka Guardian

(February 20, Los Angeles, Sri Lanka Guardian) The recent provincial council verdicts in Sri Lanka transcend war euphoria suggested by a few. The thumping received by the Opposition parties went deeper than what is generally alluded to.

As the war in the north tilted towards LTTE capitulation rather slowly, the UNP and the JVP seemed oblivious to the dynamics of the Mahinda Chintanaya or the president’s mind set that visualized a long-term vision reminiscent of the country’s founding fathers’ quest for enduring traditions of prosperity. The major goals of a durable national revival had been given serious thought in it.

The UNP missed its significance due to an erosion of rural support it suffered under Ranil Wickremesinghe. He had virtually converted the party of DS and Dudley Senanayake into an urbanite retreat. The urban-based downward slippage started with JR though. R Premadasa reversed it somewhat and then it slipped again. Ranil seemed claiming the dubious honor of heading an urban league unworthy of the title of a national party having lost a record dozen or more elections.

The UNP leadership was incapable of seeing that the Rajapaksa administration had laid the foundation for a long-lasting inroad into terrorism and more importantly a revival like what the forefathers had envisioned. UNP leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe seemed reluctant to come to terms with that electoral reality and more recently Central Province Chief Ministerial candidate S. B. Dissanayake expressed the same.

They put on bold fronts and bragged that trying to win elections on the war stories was futile. SB predicted that they would trounce President Mahinda Rajapaksa if he were to run for Chief Minister’s post in the Central Province. Contrary to such forecasts the government won even SB's home electorate, Hanguranketha, with a huge majority, polling as it did 63 per cent of votes, and bagged the Central Province with a 14-seat majority!

It was not merely the triumphant feel good war narration that got the votes for the government but the very demarcation and execution of a strategy mapped out with singularity of purpose. The war was won when President Rajapaksa assembled the right persons to execute it. Led by Defense Secretary Gotabhaya and ably supported by the armed forces heads, Army Commander Lieutenant General Sarath Fonseka, Navy Chief Vice Admiral Wasantha Kannangara and Air Force Air Marshall Roshan Goonatilake, the dream team that operated in unison. The brave soldiers gave their very best the war front.

The Opposition countered that the government had done nothing by way of development and it was only marketing its military campaign hitching its wagon to the stars: a fatality that made elections a referendum on the war, playing right into Rajapaksa government’s political tactic calling appeasement of the Tigers by the UNP leaders a disastrous move.

The other crucial fact that debilitated the UNP, often ignore, was President Rajapaksa’s constant attempt to woo the largely multi-ethnic areas. Even electorates considered intrinsically bent towards the UNP such as Matale, Puttalam and Nuwara Eliya got drawn to that appeal. Reaching out to people and making himself accessible proved an insurmountable trump card played by the President. When compared to the national election of 2005 and the provincial council results of this year it is very clear that the President turned the tables on the UNP and the JVP. At the last presidential election in 2005 in Matale, UNP candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe polled 125,937 votes (50.25%) as opposed to the UPFA candidate Mahinda Rajapaksa's 120,533 (48%). But, at the PC elections this time, the government polled as high as 69 per cent of votes while the UNP received only about 28% in that district.

The President never let go of any chance to win over voters. His tenacity of purpose was overwhelming. He went all out to get the estate Tamil vote which had been won by the UNP regularly. The UNP beat the government in the Nuwara Eliya District there by nearly 50,000 votes at the 2004 PC polls to secure eight seats as opposed to UPFA's six and the Up Country People's Front's two. The recent elections took a different turn. The government managed to win over the CWC and the UPF and defeated the UNP in Nuwara Eliya with a majority of about 18,000 votes by polling 146,418 votes (51.77%) and securing nine seats, as opposed to the UNP's 128,289 (45%) and seven seats.

The JVP fared poorly too. In 2004, the JVP contested PC polls on the UPFA ticket and got 21 seats in the North Western and Central Provinces––6 in Kurunegala, 3 in Puttalam, 6 in Kandy, 3 in Matale and 3 in Nuwara Eliya. This time they got decimated. They were reduced to a single seat in both provinces. (The Puttalam District results have not yet been announced.)

The so-called hollow rhetoric of a war victory seems undisputedly a better weapon to have than the gloomier predictions of those opposing the government. Scoffing at the war effort did antagonize many independent voters. Politicians like Lakshman Kirielle’s taunting words that any fool could make war came back to haunt the UNP.

The UNP and the JVP have a hard climb ahead. Leadership vacuum is obvious. President Rajapaksa campaigned as if he was the underdog. He took nothing for granted. Tenacity is a cardinal virtue in politics. Optimism and buoyancy displayed by the Presidential example caught on. The level of pre-election violence was notably at its lowest in recent memory this time: a sign that the upbeat Presidential demeanor may have contributed to it. It is not worth anyone putting their neck out when the outcome seemed crystal clear. No one wants to die for a lost cause. Election fatigue takes over fast when you are confronted with certain defeat.

The Zen moment arrived when in a post-election analysis, UNP Secretary, Tissa Attanayake stated that they were undeterred. The patient had died but at least the bowels have been cleansed, said one cynic.

-Sri Lanka Guardian