Pranab’s visit and after

By Commodore R. S. Vasan

(February 06, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian) The visit of the External minister of India Pranab Mukherjee to Sri Lanka did take place after all on 27th January 2009. The regional parties in India were insisting that New Delhi take some visible concrete action for bringing about a cease fire. The parties who have traditionally supported the LTTE through the thick and thin for years insisted that India intervene to prevent the alleged genocide of the Tamil race in the Island.

One of the Tamil leaders went to the extent of suggesting that there was no need for Pranab to visit the Island and all that was required was for the Indian Prime minister to pick up the phone and “order” a ceasefire as if Sri Lanka was another state of India. This despite the full knowledge of the past practices which showed that when ever a cease fire was in force, the LTTE just used the opportunity to regroup, raise funds, train and prepare for another show down depending on when it was ready.

Along with the visit of the External Affairs Minister, Government of India appeared to be keen to make its stand unambiguously clear that it had no sympathy for the LTTE , but was indeed concerned about the safety of the Tamils who were caught in the cross fire. Pranab during his visit on Tuesday lost no time in asserting that the political process should soon begin after the military action. This made it clear that India supported the military action and identified the actions of the Government of Sri Lanka as a legitimate action against a terrorist group that stands banned in over thirty counries including US, UK, Canada Australia and of course India. Sri Lanka itself was the last country that banned the organization. The statement made by Pranab that “We are for a fight against terrorists and all sorts of terrorism. Therefore we have no sympathy for any terrorists activity indulged in by any organization, particularly LTTE which is a banned organization in India”. The regional parties responded by saying that after all Pranab was confirming their doubts that the military action was fully supported by India and India was unwilling to intervene this time.

Mahinda lost no time to use the opportunity to extend an invitation to the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu and the leader of the AIADMK to visit the Island to acquaint themselves about the ground situation in the Island and persuade LTTE to lay down arms and join the democratic process. It is very obvious that Mahinda was quite certain that the Tamil leaders did not have the heart to go to the Island. What if the ground situation is actually as has been made out by Mahinda? What clout do they enjoy with the terrorist group for ensuring that it lay down arms? LTTE has not deviated from its own agenda and has used the Tamil Diaspora only to whip up Tamil sentiments. How then would the parties continue to harp on the plight of the civilians who are held hostage by the LTTE itself?

Mahinda was indeed displaying his astute sense of timing and shrewd diplomacy in extending an open invitation to the Tamil leaders who have been talking in different voices to score political points. On one hand, he was able to send a message to the world at large openly hinting that he is in control and is indeed ensuring the safety of the civilians the fact that was open to scrutiny by those who seem to identify with the cause of Tamils. On the other, he dared the Tamil leaders to face the tiger in its own den.

The appeal by the UN at the level of the Secretary General Ban Ki Moon to both the warring parties to restore normalcy and protect innocent civilians immediately in ‘safety zones and no fire zones’ is unlikely to be heeded overnight with the complicated ground situation that defies immediate solution in terms of providing safety to the civilians. The survival instincts of LTTE would not allow them to let go of the civilian shield which extends the life span of a dying force.

Reports from the field suggest that Tamil civilians numbering 1, 50,000 to 2, 00,000 are still under the control of the LTTE unable to escape from the custody. The SL Government has alleged that the designated safety zones and no fire zones have been used by the tigers to fire at the SL forces knowing fully well that fire returned would cause collateral damage in terms of civilian causality. The LTTE on their part has been alleging that the action of the SL forces has caused much avoidable civilian causality. It has been also suggested that the numbers of civilians has been inflated to ensure that the food and other supplies from the Government would reach the LTTE to sustain their opposition.

The fact that the UN had to appeal to the LTTE to release its own officials (still held hostage?) indicates that the LTTE has not even allowed neutral UN officials to leave its controlled territory. The estimate of the area controlled today by the LTTE has been put at a little over 300 Square kilometers by the Army General Fonseka. The area presently held is just a miniscule fraction of the area under LTTE control for decades.

There is speculation about the whereabouts of the leader of the guerilla force. For some time it was said that he may have fled to Malaysia or another south eastern country. Rumours of escape by air in his Zlin 143 aircraft, by sea even in a submarine or fast craft have done the rounds. The swift action by Malaysia which acted on the rumours suggests that the destination countries are unlikely to allow Prabhakaran to use their soil. Even in Tamil Nadu, precautions have been taken and air, sea and land surveillance intensified with a view to arrest Prabhakaran if he attempts landing on Indian soil. It is clear that no nation wants the fugitive to use its soil with the credentials that he carries with him with his passport. Nadesan the political head clarified that Prabhakaran had not escaped as was made out but was in the Wanni jungles with his “people” leading them in the fight for freedom.

With the waning of the fortunes of Prabhakaran, Colonel Karuna (Vinayamurthy Muralitharan) of the break away faction appears to be becoming more vocal. He recently lambasted Karunanidhi and other regional party leaders for the support given to LTTE ignoring the larger interests of Tamils. Karuna went to the extent of accusing Prabhakaran for scuttling opportunities that were presented on many occasions to achieve lasting peace in the Island.

All things considered, analysts appear unanimous in their assessment that the end game is near for the LTTE. The regional parties will raise the pitch after realizing that UPA has no plans for bailing out LTTE this time. With the elections round the corner, UPA appears quite determined not to yield to any pressure from Tamil Nadu . The statement in the assembly by the ailing Chief Minister that he is ‘being heard solely because he is in power in Tamil Nadu and that if his giving up power would result in creation of Eelam he would gladly do so’ is clearly indicative of the helplessness of the elected government that is not in a position to change the tide. The only hope is that there would be new dawn in the Island with the military defeat of the LTTE and ushering in of a new form of governance with devolution that now Mahinda thinks desirable.

(The author is presently the Head, Strategy and Security Studies at the Center for Asia Studies at Chennai and can be contacted at rsvasan2010@gmail.com)-Sri Lanka Guardian