Elections explode more myths

By Nalin de Silva

(February 18, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) Not many years ago, it was stated by political pundits that it was impossible to win an election without the support of the so called minorities - a term coined by the British. In addition the pundits pointed out that devolution of power was essential, as Prabhakaran and the LTTE were invincible and hence to attract the so called moderate Tamils a devolution package was necessary.

All the wisdom of the pundits was associated with the "injustices" to the Tamils by the Sinhalas, and prevention of partitioning of the country. The myth of the invincibility of the LTTE and Prabhakaran has been exploded and the myth of the injustices to the Tamils is being gradually exposed. The Vayamba and Central Provincial Council elections have exploded the myth that the minorities would always vote as a bloc with the UNP.

When the pundits were arguing that elections could not be won without the support of the "minorities" we showed that if a political party was able to muster about sixty percent of the Sinhala vote it could win the elections. However to win that much of support from the Sinhalas a policy that could attract them had to be adopted. For the first time since 1956 the UPFA came out with such policy. At the Presidential elections in 2005. The UPFA promised to protect the unitary state and the majority of the Sinhala people gathered round the UPFA. Mr. Mahinda Rajapakse, having come to power, has gone on to defeat the LTTE standing up to the pressure exerted continuously by the western powers and intermittently by India. The government and the military have won not only the northern and the eastern provinces but the hearts of the people living in those areas. It is the so called Sinhala army that has been engaged in humanitarian operations against the barbaric LTTE, and has liberated the innocent Tamils from the clutches of Prabhakaran. The innocent and poor Tamils now know that the "Sinhala army" is not a devil.

If Mr. Mahinda Rajapakse came to power in 2005 on the Sinhala vote without depending on the so called minority vote, in the Provincial Council elections held on Saturday the UPFA has been able to win the votes of the "minorities" as well. It is not the APRC that has attracted the "minorities" to the UPFA. The APRC served a purpose during the days when humanitarian operations began but it has no role to play now. It is not devolution that matters but "development". It can be said that currently the UPFA attracts about 70% of the Sinhala vote and about 45% of the "minority" vote. This is only a rough estimate going by the votes polled by the UPFA at the Vayamba and Central Province provincial council elections where the UPFA received around 70% and 60% of the votes respectively. Even if the estimates are not correct it is clear that the UPFA has increased its vote among the Sinhalas as well as the "minorities" (almost from nothing) compared to the Presidential elections held in 2005 and the general elections held in 2004. In the meantime the UNP vote has come down not only among the Sinhalas but among the "minorities" as well.

The UPFA has been able to increase votes among the Tamils by defeating the LTTE and looking after the poor Tamil people who had braved the attacks from the LTTE to escape to the "war free zone". The "minority" vote for the UPFA has increased in spite of propaganda by the LTTE and the west that the condition of the civilians in Vanni had deteriorated considerably in the past few weeks. The fact that the "minority" vote increased when the most adverse propaganda against the government was aired by the western and other pro LTTE media speaks volumes for the correctness of the leadership given by the President.

The verdict is in many ways an approval of the nationalistic policies adopted and the national theories and concepts adhered to by the government. There is a national feeling among the Sinhalas as well as the "minorities" for the first time since Sri Lanka won the world cup in cricket, but at a deeper level. The lion flag has all of a sudden acquired an importance and the people Sinhala as well as non Sinhalas were proud to display it on Independence Day. The sovereignty of the nation and the welfare of the people are the concerns of the people and the Sinhalas are determined to proceed along the line that has been so far adopted by the government. The Sinhala people have overwhelmingly approved the policies of the President and they would not want the government to bow down to the westerners and others. The pundits would again play the same tune of Sri Lanka being a small country which should not isolate itself from the rest of the world. However, what has been proved during the last two or three years is that the country could stand up to all these pressures upholding the sovereignty of the country. Except for some LTTE supporters and UNP sympathisers, and the Tamil diaspora a good proportion of the other Tamils would support the government even on this score as they have experience of the life they had under the LTTE. The verdict given by the people is for continuation of the policies of the government including defeating of the LTTE, and it should not deviate even by a centimetre from the line that has been pursued so far. If the government were to do so at the insistence of a few Marxists and other such creatures in the government then it would amount to committing political suicide. It is not the policies of these characters that have been approved, but those of the now defunct group of Sinhala MPs (Sinhala Manthree Kandayama) in the UPFA. It is unfortunate that these MPs are now not very vociferous and their views are being expressed by others who had opposing views only a few years ago. The danger is that some of these vociferous elements could go back to their original positions once the operations are over. The Sinhala MPs group should try to take the leadership in policy matters.

The UNP has lost their mass base and in certain poling divisions they could manage only about 25% of the votes polled. The party that could boast of a vote base of about 40% has lost support simply because of the policy on the problem of Tamil racism. It should be clear to the UNP that they cannot hope to win an election based on non national policies dictated by the west. The people have given a clear verdict and defeated non national forces that include the UNP. The JVP has fared miserably winning only one seat in the Vayamba Provincial council and losing in all the polling divisions. As we have argued on many occasions the JVP is strong only when they are in an alliance with the SLFP, and the moment they leave the alliance their strength is lost. The JVP can either join the UPFA, provided of course the latter is prepared to accept them. The JVP insisted that the victory over the LTTE belonged to the people and not to a party. The people have not listened to these ideas coming from party leaders who would hero worship their leader Vijeweera and would claim that the Russian revolution was a success due to the leadership of Lenin. The party does not want to give due credit to the President and probably wants to say that it is the armed forces (ranaviruvo) that was successful in the humanitarian operations against the LTTE. The people did not listen to this argument, and had they known that some of the young followers of the revolutionary party had got female university students to abuse and attack the ranaviruwo, the outcome would have been even worse for the party. The JVP that had a mass base of about 3% of the votes polled even in 1982, has lost most of it to the UPFA. Once Mahinda Chinthana was formulated, the attraction for the smaller parties deteriorated and these parties can survive only by becoming partners of the alliance.

The myths of Tamil racism are being exploded gradually and if the government keeps its cool and works out on a proper national integration (meaning integration of the non Sinhalas to the Sinhala nation recognizing that the Sinhala Buddhist culture is the preeminent culture in Sri Lanka while maintaining the identities of the non-Sinhalas) the ordinary Tamils would support the government more and more in spite of the diaspora and the leaders who have only brought them misery.

[Professor Nalin de Silva is a Sri Lankan theoretical physicist, philosopher and a political analyst. He is a Professor in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka.]

-Sri Lanka Guardian