Beginning of the End of Bush Misadventure in Iraq

By Philip Fernando in Los Angeles for Sri Lanka Guardian

(February 02, Los Angeles, Sri Lanka Guardain) Iraqis vote on Saturday in provincial elections that will help shape their future. US invasion is over bar the actual withdrawal of troops. U S disengagement and eventual retreat to their vast, garrisoned new embassy compound will begin. Iraqi soldiers will handle all Green Zone checkpoints that were manned by the Americans for seven years. Said one observer: “American helicopters and drones may be in the sky, but Iraqi boots are on the ground. The road to Kuwait will be readied for the hauling out of the infrastructure the Americana had built on bases across Iraq. Bush misadventure in Iraq is beginning to unfold.

More than 140,000 American soldiers remaining on Iraqi soil will be withdrawn starting in March. President Barack Obama who opposed the launching of this war when he was a Chicago politician made it clear that Iraq is not his war; he wants to focus on Afghanistan. The current economic crisis would not permit any expenditure on Iraq either. Any debate that may ensue in Washington about the shape and timing of the troop withdrawal this year seems almost moot here, given how much Iraqis want to show case their urge to govern on their own and how much Americans want to hand over responsibility to the Iraqis so they can meet withdrawal deadlines.
The clashes in the provinces will last for more time. In Nineveh and Diyala, counterinsurgency operations are still under way, and the military is tracking signs of activity by Sunni extremist groups in the troubled areas surrounding Baghdad. The rest of the country is mostly calm judging by the current mood. Iraq will have to resolve remaining sectarian and ethnic tensions through the ballot box. That already began in earnest in November 2008, when the Iraqi Parliament approved a new security agreement with the Americans that sealed the date of departure, by the end of 2011.

Most reports indicate that Iraqis are more confident that their problems are their own, and that the Americans cannot fix them. Matters were made worst by the presence of the Americans. And often have only made matters worse. The resentment of the American presence boiled over in 2007 after Blackwater Security guards opened fire on Iraqi civilians in Nisour Square, killing 17 of them and wounding more than 30. That was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Iraqis felt that they must take control of their own destiny.

Iraqi resolve surprised the Bush administration and had to accept a hard deadline for departure, give up immunity for contractors like Blackwater and transfer Iraqis explicit authority over all military operations in the country. A major Bush defeat, said most observers. Now, for both sides there is the feeling that something has changed and that whatever happens next, Iraq will not return to the way it was.

“We’re going through transition in Iraq at the same time we’re going through transition in our forces here,” said Gen. Ray Odierno, the commanding general for Iraq. “They will elect new provincial governments. I believe 75 percent to 80 percent of the provincial governments will change, and oh, by the way, we’ll begin to reduce our troops’ size.”

Bush’s war was not so much about bringing democracy overnight but a whimsical notion of bringing about a regime change which Bush did insisted should happen. So reluctantly they agreed that the now it is more about giving Iraqis the psychological reassurance that they can handle what comes their way. In places where sectarian tensions have not stopped like Mosul American military is maintained.

According to Gen. Odierno “There are less Sunni-Shia issues than a lot of other issues here,” His counterpart Gen. Qassim al-Maliki nodded agreed: “We have a lot of Shia voting this time,” he said. “We didn’t have a lot in the last election,” he added. Still many things are like before. According most observers, Iraqis entering any area close to the Americans are still subject to multiple humiliating searches and interminable waits. American diplomats cannot yet leave the embassy; they live like virtual prisoners, every movement beyond its gates an armed undertaking. But it is possible for Americans and Iraqis to talk about issues other than sheer survival, but only in uncertain terms.

Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki has agreed to finance a substantial scholarship program to send Iraqis to the United States and British Commonwealth countries for study, in an effort to create a better educated professional class. A Saturday night stand up host said that it is like an Opera, just past midway in the libretto. While both sides are disconnecting, neither can let go entirely.

America has still a bigger stake in the ultimate success of Iraqi operation. It is a strategic prize close to the Middle East flash points of Israel, Lebanon and Syria as well as Iran and the oil-rich Persian Gulf countries. Reportedly, the CIA has its largest station in the world in Baghdad. America’s dependence on Iraqi oil is great and will continue to keep it that way. It could be predicted that relationship will be subject to great stress. President Obama has his work cut out in getting the withdrawal smoothly and then keeping the relationship secure. -Sri Lanka Guardian