New Dawn' of a 'New Spring'

"The LTTE failed to read the shift in the mood and methods of the new-generation political leadership in Colombo, or even acknowledge the make-over. The LTTE should have recognised that the game was up when a determined Government turned the traditional arguments of the international community on its head, to keep their focus too exclusively on terrorism."
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by N. Sathya Moorthy

(January 05, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian) Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa would not have thought that he would be declaring the 'Kilinochchi take-over' to the nation only within days of his promising a 'New Spring' for the North. The promise having preceded the declaration, his 'pledge' to the larger Tamil community that "not only shall we accept the responsibility to ensure your own security and freedom, but the future security and freedom of your children, too" is where he should begin. That would only be a beginning, though.

In leaving behind Kilinochchi as a 'ghost city', a la Jaffna, circa 1995, LTTE however failed this time in converting a politico-military reversal into a propaganda advantage Earlier reports having claimed that the LTTE had guided the civilian population out of Kilinochchi weeks ago, it gives the lie to charges of large-scale civilian deaths in indiscriminate bombing by the armed forces on the key town in the LTTE map.

It all had begun with the LTTE leadership dismissing the post-9/11 global mood as a passing phase that it could turn to its advantage -- like many of its tactical military reverses, earlier. It confused the efforts at ensuring politico-military parity with the Sri Lankan State to facilitate peace negotiations on equal footing, as veiled support for a separate nation – and had created institutions that only defused its focus and over-stretched its resources.

The LTTE failed to read the shift in the mood and methods of the new-generation political leadership in Colombo, or even acknowledge the make-over. The LTTE should have recognised that the game was up when a determined Government turned the traditional arguments of the international community on its head, to keep their focus too exclusively on terrorism. It did not – or, did not want to.

If it went by doomsday predictions on the Sri Lankan economy, it did not provide for the public mood which had begun seeing the LTTE as the main villain over the long term. The rice-and-fish rural economy, whose family incomes were made in dollars by their women working as housemaids in far-off lands, had an in-built resilience that was often over-looked. The global meltdown, while not to be ignored, seemed to have convinced the people that theirs was not the only nation to suffer, nor was theirs the only Government to falter – but with a cause, to boot.

The military gap showed when the 'Karuna faction' split away. This was followed much later by its provocative attacks on the armed forces without preparing for a full-scale war that it became. The military strikes that followed within hours of the failed attempt on the life of the army chief, Lt Gen Sarath Fonseka, displayed a new determination. The military's choice of the East for the first strike when the LTTE possibly wanted war only in the North, exposed a tactical gap from which the latter never really recovered.

The fall of Kilinochchi does not mean that the LTTE has been so very completely neutralised in military terms. True, it took time for them to return to the jungles, despite displaying intentions to do so long ago – but the jungle is where the Tigers feel comfortable. This is not to belittle the capabilities of the Sri Lankan armed forces, which may add to their conventional war capabilities, elements of search-and-destroy operations, which forms the core of anti-insurgency operations, anyway. Already, the security forces have effectively neutralised the urban guerrilla capabilities of the LTTE to a substantial extent, through massive recovery of hidden explosives, destruction of their sleeper-cells and detention of what is euphemistically called 'Sinhala Tiger' accomplices.

Even otherwise, the ethnic war has reached a stage in which the elimination of individuals or strategic and/or economic assets is going to make any great difference to the morale of the armed forces of the Sri Lankan State. If anything, it could only re-double their resolve and determination to go on a hot-pursuit.

Likewise, there is little to suspect at this stage that a victory for the armed forces could flag a return of anti-Tamil riots of the 1983 kind, which spoiled the fair name of the Sri Lankan nation, no end. Yet, caution is what the Sri Lankan nation and State should observe to ensure that no provocation of the '83 kind would draw the people back into those unforgettably forgettable days.

The nation owes an apology, not explanations, to the Tamil people for '83. If damages could be paid, to the community if not to individuals, it should also be paid. As President Rajapaksa said in his televised Tamil speech to the people on the 'Future Minds of Jaffna' education and industrial fair "all that was lost" to the people should be restored.

This will only be a part of the process of mainstreaming of the larger Tamil community, which still feels left out. The real integration could commence only with power-devolution of the kind that the Tamils have been aspiring for. President Rajapaksa, who has acknowledged the India-Sri Lanka Accord and the Thirteenth Amendment, cannot be seen as dithering on the APRC scheme that he had initiated.

Unlike in the past, the President did not invite the LTTE for talks while asking them to 'lay down arms and surrender'. He however did not mention a ban either, though the year-end deadline for the LTTE to release civilians in its territory had passed. The Government has to win over the confidence of the Tamil community, and the LTTE the trust of the Government and the international community. The rest, as they say, would follow -- and could not be stopped.

The writer is Director, Chennai Chapter of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), the Indian policy think-tank, headquartered in New Delhi. email: sathiyam54@gmail.com . The article originally published by the Daily Mirror, Colombo.- Sri Lanka Guardian