IPKF vets fear influence loss

(January 03, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) The fall of Kilinochchi to Sri Lankan government troops is being described by Lanka watchers here as an eclipse of the LTTE’s conventional fighting capabilities, leading to a corresponding diminution in New Delhi’s influence over Colombo for ensuring that the political cause of the Tamils was met.

"We’ve lost the game (to the government of Sri Lanka)," Maj. Gen. Ashok Mehta (Retd), who served with the Indian Peacekeeping Force (IPKF) in Sri Lanka, told this newspaper. "It is anybody’s guess how much of political devolution Sri Lankan Tamils will derive after the marginalisation of the LTTE," he said.

Maj. Gen. Mehta thought the marginalisation of the LTTE would make New Delhi less important strategically for Colombo. "Whatever influence India had would diminish as a result of Sri Lanka being able to handle the situation entirely on its own despite what India may claim about this," he said.

Speaking to this newspaper from Chennai, Col. R Hariharan (Retd), who was earlier the head of intelligence in the IPKF in Sri Lanka in the late 1980s, said the LTTE would have no option now but to retreat to the jungles.

"The last bid of the LTTE to have a conventional army and fight a conventional war is over. The fall of Kilinochchi represents a huge military defeat for the LTTE and will also diminish their political clout. Elephant Pass will be captured soon by the Sri Lankan Army and the Jaffna-Kandy road can be re-opened," Col. Hariharan said.

Maj. Gen. Mehta also said it was a "big irony" that India, which sent troops in 1987 to get Tamils their due, had now abrogated that role entirely into the hands of Colombo. "India has yielded too much more than she should have," he said. "The government of India has been amiss. It was a strategic error not to keep back channels with the LTTE. Even more surprising is that the Tamil Nadu government, which was the most ardent supporter of the LTTE, has completely failed in nudging the government of India into taking some action about keeping the LTTE relevant," he added.

Another former Indian official said the re-occupation of Kilinochchi by the Sri Lankan Army will add to the pride, confidence and morale of the Sri Lankan Army but it would not necessarily undermine the motivation and morale of the LTTE.

Experts feel the LTTE’s leadership now has grown much older compared to the previous years and they doubt whether the rebels will be able to retain their military strength that made them so feared earlier.

Incidentally, India has so far refused to end its military cooperation with Sri Lanka and provides "assistance and training" to the Sri Lankan armed forces. India had earlier made it clear that it would not supply "lethal" arms to Sri Lanka as there was a conflict raging in that country. There have been reports earlier that India has supplied equipment such as radar to Sri Lanka but these reports have never been confirmed by India. Sri Lanka also accounts for nearly half of the foreign naval personnel being trained in India by the Indian Navy, figures submitted earlier by the Union government before Parliament for 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2006-07 had revealed. Sri Lanka has also purchased arms from Pakistan and Israel for its offensive against the LTTE. - Sri Lanka Guardian