After Killinochchi, What?

"The LTTE's conventional fighting capabilities are under great pressure. That cannot be said automatically of their guerilla capabilities. The LTTE has also mastered the art of suicide-bombings, which however has lost the sheen of personal sacrifice for the cause long ago. The LTTE also has its modest 'air force' and a residual navy, which could be put to 'good use', more so in the guerilla mode."

by Nilantha Ilangamuwa

(January 07, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) Celebrations have marked the entry of the armed forces into Killinochchi, as if the ethnic war is all but over. Conversely, the LTTE too has been stoutly denying claims that it is the end of the road for the militant outfit. Killinochchi used to be the headquarters of the LTTE. It used to be Jaffna earlier, and it has since moved to Mullaiteevu, along with the LTTE leadership. If one is talking about the LTTE-centric demand for a separate State of 'Tamil Eelam', Trincomallee was projected as the 'capital city'. Trincomallee today is the Capital of the Eastern Province, where a elected Government with Sivanesanthurai Chandrakanthan alias Pillaiyan is at the helm.

What next? The celebrations never really affected the armed forces themselves. From the very next day after the re-possession of Killinochchi, they were busy going after the LTTE cadres elsewhere in the North. They have also reported additional victories in the subsequent days. March is said to be the deadline for ridding the North of the LTTE, wholesale. The armed forces too were said to have suffered big hits in the battle for Killinochchi, and may do so as they get closer to the new fortress of 'Big Tiger' Prabhakaran. These battles however need to be fought if the armed forces are to accomplish their assigned mission(s). These losses are unavoidable, but seem to be within 'manageable limits'.

So is the collateral damage in the number of civilian lives lost in the LTTE-controlled areas. There have been conflicting claims on the score, with the Government insisting that all efforts are being taken to ensure that the 'human shields' in LTTE custody do not suffer. It has also attributed the 'slow pace' of the advance by the armed forces to the extra care they needed to take to keep the civilian population outside the line of fire – or, at least as much as possible. With Killinochchi coming into the control of the armed forces, and early media teams from Colombo being taken on a conducted tour of the 'ghost town', there have not been any reports thus far about massive deaths from among the civilian population. If there has been any, the story has not been told as yet.

The LTTE's conventional fighting capabilities are under great pressure. That cannot be said automatically of their guerilla capabilities. The LTTE has also mastered the art of suicide-bombings, which however has lost the sheen of personal sacrifice for the cause long ago. The LTTE also has its modest 'air force' and a residual navy, which could be put to 'good use', more so in the guerilla mode.

Terrorism expert B. Raman had this to say, when asked about the risks to Sri Lankan Government assets, both in political and economic terms, from kamikaze-type attacks by the LTTE's air men and their Zlin aircraft: "I am sure the LTTE must be examining the various options available to it. At present, it has very little opportunity for offensive action in the North when it is relentlessly under pressure from the Sri Lankan Army. However, it has the option of unconventional offensive strikes in other fronts far removed from the North. One such front could be Colombo. Another is Trincomallee. The third could be Hambantota, where the Chinese are reportedly constructing a modern port for Sri Lanka. Very often, turning-points in unconventional warfare come when the terrorists start attacking the economic infrastructure."

Furthermore, one saw this in the British fight against the Irish Republican Army (IRA). "Mrs.Margaret Thatcher, the British Prime Minister in the 1980s, took a very strong line against the IRA and waged a no-holds-barred campaign against it in Northern Ireland. The IRA managed to carry the fight to London and carried out some explosions in London's finance district where the offices of leading British banks are located. This led to a more nuanced policy towards the IRA instead of relying exclusively on brute force. One of the objectives of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) of Pakistan in attacking Mumbai on November 26-29 was to try to damage India's economic growth," Mr Raman added.

According to Mr. Raman, "The LTTE must be trying hard for mounting kamikaze-type attacks on military -- particularly Air Force -- targets in Colombo similar to its raid on the SLAF base in Anuradhapura. The fact that it has not succeeded so far would indicate that the physical security for such establishments is strong and that the LTTE is facing shortages of the required material for such attacks. One notices that the LTTE has not yet used all the weapons in its arsenal. It has apparently retained for itself an element of ultimate surprise."

Prof Damien Kingsbury, Associate Head of School (Research), School of International and Political Studies, Deakin University in Australia, has this to say of the post-Killinochchi situation: "The LTTE has lost Kilinochche before, and regained it. This time, it may also regain it again, although it may also be more difficult to do so, and the LTTE could fail in this bid." According to Prof. Kingsberg, if the LTTE is deprived of a permanent base it is likely to resort to more conventional guerrilla tactics, and more 'terrorism', such as bombings in Colombo and against other soft targets, as well as military targets."

However, regardless of the status of Killinochchi, the political problems which led to the formation of the LTTE will not have been resolved, and will continue to feed into resentment and militant activism. "The Government of Sri Lanka must look very seriously at addressing the political problems of the Tamils if it wants to achieve a real and sustainable peace," he said. - Sri Lanka Guardian