When will Ranil Wickremesinghe find his compass?

"The network of Christian Churches and NGOs and INGOs launched a massive campaign internationally to halt the advance of the Security Forces. The Genocide Project even went to the extent of putting Sri Lanka on the top of the list of “Red Alert” with Sudan and Darfur based on the fantasies of the likelihood of a genocide taking place in Sri Lanka."

(December 26, Melbourne, Sri Lanka Guardian) From time to time Ranil Wickremesinghe, the Leader of the Opposition, has been signaling that he is keen on moving closer to the heart of the nation which is a prime requirement if he has any intention of regaining power. After a series of failed policies --from his disastrous Ceasefire Agreement to bullock cart (“juck-muck”) and car (“toot-toot”) demonstrations – he has signaled at various times that he is (1) for the banning of the TRO; (2) against a federal solution (whatever that means); (3) not going back to the CFA which he thought was the answer to the national crisis; and (4) for the military offensive to end terrorism.

Collectively, these four factors constitute a solid shift away from the discredited UNP policy of appeasing the Tamil Tigers. But these signals have not been articulated emphatically as his “juck-muck” and “toot-toot” politics. In fact, it is difficult to read where he stands because he is sending mixed signals. This is not unusual for his style of leadership. For instance, if Wickremesinghe intends to take his party down the track of moving closer to the aspirations of the nation why is he waving his hands over his head at the Sanath Jayasuriya Stadium in Matara along with Rauf Hakeem, who has signed an agreement with Prabhakaran and never abrogated it so far, and Mangala Samaraweera who is heading the Defence Watch, an organization set up to oppose and halt the war?

Not surprisingly, even the policy shift (mentioned above) has failed to resonate with the voters who had rejected him repeatedly. The policy shifts indicate a realization that there is no other alternative to cut into the vote bank of President Mahinda Rajapakse who has captured the aspirations and the mood of the nation. But the voters have not placed their trust in Wickremesinghe because he is acting in his usual confused way, making a vain bid, to run with losers and hunt with the winners simultaneously.

As a responsible leader of the opposition his stand is to be with the politico-military forces fighting the enemies of the nation. Quite correctly he told the Matara meeting: “We do not want to sabotage the war.” Here he is kissing the hand that he cannot cut. Nevertheless, it is a welcome shift away from his initial response of belittling the victories scored by the forces who marched to the top of Toppigala. But for his rhetoric to take effect he must follow through with appropriate action. So far he has failed to match his rhetoric with a spirited defence of the forces facing the biggest attack against them from most of his political allies.

Commonsense should dictate to him that he can’t have it both ways. On the one hand, he is signaling that he supports four of the basics (outlined above) of Mahinda Rajapakse’s politico-military strategy and, on the other hand, he is hand in glove with Rauf Hakeem and Samaraweera who are against the war. Besides, when Karunanidhi says that the Indian Foreign Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, should go to Sri Lanka to stop the war Wickremesinghe jumps two feet higher than Karunanidhi to endorse it.

While he consults his horoscope and pays poojas in Chennai his side-kick, Samaraweera, jets to Oslo to crank up the pro-Tiger facilitator, Erik Solheim, who has been another loser like Samaraweera. In Tamil Nadu tables have turned against the Tigers. The Hindu reported: “Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi on Thursday sent out a warning to the supporters of the LTTE, saying that the DMK government would not hesitate to take action against those who voice support and act in favour of banned organisations. (December 26, 2008). This seems to be the end of the road for ‘Tigers in Tamil Nadu. TNA MP Sivajilingam, after realizing that he can’t go far with Karunanidhi, has turned to L. K. Advani, the BJP leader, to save the Tigers.

The Churches, however, in their latest deceptive move to stop the offensive against the Tigers has asked for a ceasefire in the name of Christmas. Earlier, Pakiasothy Saravanamuttu (Paki) flew to address the partisan School for Oriental and Asian Studies (it has only invited pro-separatist groups to address them so far) on the need to sack the Army Commander for making political statements but he has never uttered word of putting Prabhakaran on trial for war crimes and crimes against humanity. According to Paki the Army Commander making a political statement is a greater crime than all the subhuman crimes of Prabhakaran against his own Tamil people. Paki’s hired lawyer, Rohan Edrisinghe, an anti-Sinhala-Buddhist Christian fundamentalist, was despatched to New York to mobilize Christian forces against the advance of the Security forces into Tiger territory.

The network of Christian Churches and NGOs and INGOs launched a massive campaign internationally to halt the advance of the Security Forces. The Genocide Project even went to the extent of putting Sri Lanka on the top of the list of “Red Alert” with Sudan and Darfur based on the fantasies of the likelihood of a genocide taking place in Sri Lanka. Coincidentally, the anti-Sri Lankan Forces’ campaign ran parallel to the advancing Security Forces in a race to get ahead and cut off the Forces before they reach Killinochchi.

What should have been the role of Wickremesinghe in this situation? His rhetoric of supporting the soldiers is not matched by any substantial commitment to defend them against this massive barrage against the Forces. He says one thing to the people of Matara -- and that too in his usual wishy-washy way -- another thing to the international community.

If he is genuinely committed to the policy shift he has signaled then it demonstrates that there is a broad political consensus between the government and the opposition on the fundamentals needed to restore normalcy, peace and order in the nation. The UNPers who crossed over were far ahead of him in joining Mahinda Rajapaksa to give the government the political power and the sense of unity in facing a common enemy. Sirisena Cooray, the former king-maker of the UNP who opted to make Wickremesinghe the Prime Minister without taking the premiership offered to him, too argues that this is the time for the UNP to support the government on key issues. He told the Sri Lanka Guardian : “Strengthening the hands of the government to win the war and working out a solution for the common good of all communities is the task of the day and the UNP must play a positive role by working with the government.”

Citing the example of India, Cooray said: “In the post-Mumbai terrorist attack the Indian opposition, in a rare display of unity, backed the Manmohan Singh government to the hilt in parliament. We are facing a more serious situation than India. Going against the government at this stage is to go against the positive gains and prevailing expectations of the people. The UNP can win only if it learns from the mistakes starting from the Ceasefire Agreement and the string of election defeats.”

The recent demonstration of thousands of Jaffna Tamils carrying the Sri Lankan flag in Vadamarachci introduces a new dimension to Jaffna Tamil politics. More than the counting of numbers, (which some say is around 16,000) the fact they took to the streets demanding the elimination of the Tigers is a phenomenon of significant proportions, which cannot be ignored by the UNP. Even if a few hundred Tamils in Jaffna carried the Sri Lankan flag it marks a new beginning. The thousands behind the Sri Lankan flag are symbolic of the new wave of politics that is emerging, both among the Tamils in Sri Lanka and the Tamil diaspora. The average Tamil carrying the Sri Lankan flag in Jaffna is on the same wavelength as the Tamil intelligentsia that is questioning the separatist ideology and the violence that have led the Tamils nowhere. Combined together both represent a forthright backlash to the failed violence and intransigent politics of the Tigers. It demonstrates quite unambiguously the irrelevance of Tiger violence and ideology to the average Tamil yearning for peace.

The TamilNet accused Douglas Devananda, the leader of the anti-Tiger EPDP, of stage-managing the demonstration with the backing of the Army. But neither the Army nor Devananda could have put thousands of Jaffna Tamils on the streets at the gun point. It is more an expression of the new democratic political culture surfacing free from the pervasive fear of Tiger Pol Potism. It is a defiant act against the Tigers confirming that they have lost the power to crack the whip and make the Tamils of Jaffna toe the Tiger line.

It is a confirmation of the fact that the Jaffna Tamils are not a monolithic bloc falling at the feet of “the sole representative of the Tamils”. The new thinking is based on the hope that peace can come only by demilitarizing the Tigers. If this is the lead given by the Jaffna Tamils then how should the leadership in the south respond? Should Wickremesinghe give the Tamils a supportive hand to lift themselves up from the misery of the longest running war in South Asia? Or should the Opposition go against the Mahinda Rajapaksa government – the only successful political institution that has a proven track record of demilitarizing the Tigers to the point cutting them down to size of another para-military group without territory. This should open avenues for non-violent Tamils to negotiate a deal for their future. Whose side should Wickremesinghe take now -- now that the burden of negotiating another CFA on the terms and conditions dictated by the Tigers are no longer there?


H.L.D.Mahindapala: Editor, Sunday and Daily Observer (1990 - 1994). President, Sri Lanka Working Journalists' Association (1991 -1993). Secretary-General, South Asia Media Association (1993 -1994). He has been featured as a political commentator in Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Special Broadcasting Services and other mainstream TV and radio stations in Australia.) - Sri Lanka Guardian