To My Fellow LTTE Cheerleaders Hyping about a Stalingrad in Killinochchi

by Uthum Fernando

(December 20, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) I’ve been reading with great amusement for some time now the latest articles by these Tamil communalist LTTE cheerleaders and self-proclaimed defense analysts about how the situation in Killinochchi is comparable to the battle of Stalingrad for the Sri Lankan forces. They say this because as sympathizers of the terrorists they are hoping for some kind of a military miracle or “turning point” in which their LTTE can shift the tide of this war. So they foolishly take comfort from their perceived knowledge about the battle of Stalingrad, which they believe have many parallels to what is currently happening on the Killinochchi front.

Let me start by saying that I have extensively researched this said battle and I fail to see how any comparison can be made between what is happening now in Killinochchi and what had happened at Stalingrad, for the way things are going for the LTTE at least.

The first thing that one must take into account is that the German Wehrmacht had taken control of Stalingrad after a months-long siege in 1942. Yes, the German forces took a great many casualties in accomplishing their objective, but 100% of the city was brought under their control. However, even at the battle’s end Soviet casualties far outnumbered German.

The Soviet victory at Stalingrad was not entirely attributed to Soviet military prowess. It was more of a blunder on Hitler’s part that led to the massive German defeat. The Soviets shifted the momentum in their favor when they launched their much anticipated counter-attack which tore at the German army’s weakly defended flanks, which were defended by unreliable Axis troops from Italy, Romania and Hungary.

These auxiliary forces were poorly trained and ill-equipped. After a few days they were entirely routed/annihilated by the Red Army which engaged them with overwhelming firepower; more than one million troops and hundreds of tanks had been assembled by Georgy Zhukov, Stalin’s ablest general for this particular operation.

With their flanks destroyed, the German 6th army was surrounded and encircled. This was the ultimate objective of the Soviet counterattack, to encircle the Germans and pen them into the city. The intention was clear, it was to bleed the German army and slowly destroy it through an overpowering strangulation made possible by this encirclement.

However during the first few months of the encirclement, the 6th army was more than capable of breaking out, but this called for the 6th army to withdraw from the city entirely as German commanders believed a tactical withdrawal after a breakout would enable the 6th army to regroup and replenish its losses. This notion of tactical withdrawal to save the 6th army did not sit too well with Hitler who rejected any moves to abandon the city.

Hitler wanted to keep Stalingrad at all costs because he was obsessed with winning a psychological victory over Stalin by holding the very city that bore his namesake. Hitler believed Stalingrad was his prize. And so he condemned the 6th army to die by telling it to hold its ground and fight at all costs to keep the city, despite his military high command pleading with him to allow for a breakout. A rescue operation was eventually authorized and launched to break the encirclement. A nearby German army group was sent in and it came about 30 km’s of the city, but it was not strong enough to break the encirclement.

Only a coordinated offensive where the 6th Army from within the city and the rescue group outside it attempting to break a hole through the Red Army’s ring around the city bore any realistic possibility of success. When this hole was big enough the 6th Army could then break out and escape, but Hitler flatly rejected the 6th army withdrawing from the city. To save the 6th army meant withdrawal from the city, which was out of the question. The rescue group eventually was pulled back.

Hitler’s hubris allowed for slow attrition that eventually destroyed the 6th army. Cutoff from their supply-lines, the encircled 6th army practically starved to death in the harsh Russian winter. During the final days, what was left of the mighty 6th Army, which had seen action since World War I, was a pathetic sight. It’s emaciated and weak soldiers were eating their own excrement to survive.

Field Marshal Friederich von Paulus, the commander of the 6th army had obeyed Hitler to the very end despite his colleagues in the high command begging him to breakout of the city. But in those final days he no longer cared, he surrendered what was left of his tattered army to the Soviets in late 1942, and that was the end of the battle of Stalingrad.

Now, when one takes into account what is happening now in Killinochchi, how can one even remotely claim that it will be the Sri Lankan military’s “Stalingrad”?

The LTTE will fight tenaciously with all its might, but the fact of the matter is, the LTTE is being encircled/surrounded from the West, the North and the South. Once their trench lines are breached there is nothing preventing this outcome. In fact the current situation looks like it will be a Stalingrad type scenario in a realistic sense for the LTTE, with this possibility of encirclement.

However, Prabhakaran will not allow for such a humiliating defeat, he will not give the SLA the pleasure of encircling and annihilating his best troops. He will most likely give the order to withdraw, once his trench lines are breached by the advancing government troops that is. In fact the current situation will be no different than from the previous battles fought in the Wanni as of recently, where Sri Lankan troops smashed through LTTE defense lines and took over towns.

There is so much hype over the Killinochchi battle because of its intensity and because of the town’s importance. The Soviets defeated the Germans at Stalingrad through a host of factors, the most important factor being the incompetence of Adolf Hitler. But the Red Army had millions of troops at its disposal and almost infinite resources to pursue its war against Germany.
The LTTE doesn’t have millions of troops and infinite resources as the Soviets did. We won’t see a massive LTTE counterattack. There is no doubt this battle has been costly for the LTTE just like it has been costly for the government, but the LTTE cannot afford to loose its best troops who have been committed to this battle in large numbers.

At what cost has the LTTE killed 100 soldiers this week? The LTTE’s own casualties are cleverly blacked out; propaganda has always been the LTTE’s forte, not the government’s. That is why we have so many parrots here who think a miracle is about to happen for the LTTE in Killinochchi very soon. But, this is exactly what the army wants, for the LTTE to stand up and fight, for the LTTE to commit its elites, who have been kept in reserve until now.

The more this battle drags on the more the LTTE’s best troops from their elite brigades will suffer casualties. This game of attrition will only work to the army’s advantage; the army is better prepared for this game of attrition with its superiority both numerically and resources-wise.

Cornered and with their backs to the Ocean, all the LTTE is doing now is stalling for time in the hope of supplanting an impending defeat. Not even time is on their side, everyday a beleaguered LTTE looses dozens of cadres, their most experienced troops are now daily taking casualties. Come to think of it, Sri Lanka’s version of Stalingrad was fought at Mavil Aru, the LTTE has never regained the momentum since then . - Sri Lanka Guardian