The moment of truth: Pre emptive action preempted

by RS Vasan

(December 06, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian) It looks like the testing fleeting moment has come and gone having been a mute witness to the helplessness of the largest democracy that did not know what to do and even now is groping in the dark for the right kind of responses to the gruesome premeditated attacks on innocent civilians and the guests of the nation who had come as tourists to learn about “Incredible India”. It is looking with in, beyond borders, to Uncle Sam and to find answers to the challenge of the hour.

It is not known as to what prompted the sellers of tourism to select this phrase “Incredible”. Look at the synonyms which also mean: hard to believe, implausible, barely credible, far fetched, absurd and inconceivable. Unwittingly, the phrase in the ad that was meant to create a certain curiosity about the ‘incredibleness’ of this country and draw tourists from different corners of the country appears to have qualified for all that the synonyms stand for.

The moment of truth descended on us and has made a hasty retreat not being able to stomach the ineptitude and callousness of the ones who are supposed to rule and govern the country.

Having been unprepared and knocked numb of their senses, those in power have delayed their responses for so long that any suggestion of pre emptive strike lost its meaning all together even before it was considered at all. If preemptive strike was indeed an option, it should have been exercised on 27th /28th of last month itself when the Prime Minister and many in the decision making loop seemed to know that the ruthless inhuman attack was hoisted from across the borders from Pakistan through the sea routes. It is clear that there was reasonable degree of success against the training camps if that action was initiated with quiet efficiency instead of debating the options in public. Not having exercised that option in time has allowed the moment to desert our shores.

The reaction and response of the entire machinery appeared to be one that was over enthusiastic to provide the witness to the US authorities and await approval. It even appeared as if we were waiting to be ordered by the US to attack the training camps in Pakistan. This despite the support by the president elects Obama who supported such an act in self defence.

The convincing leads/proof that were provided by the interrogation of the lone terrorist Azam Amir Kasab who spilled the beans along with the proof available with the intelligence agencies were more than adequate for a nation to demonstrate its assertive action provided that it had the willingness to use the moment, use the opportunity to convince its scared, insecure citizens that it meant business and was willing to go that extra mile. It would have also cemented its place as a nation with zero tolerance for terrorism or violence of any form against its lawful, law abiding citizens.

The media and the Government machinery kept screaming that there is incontrovertible proof of the complicity of our neighbour in the heinous act. Based on the intelligence and data that has been made available the following are the factors that appear incontestable:-

Hundreds of LeT cadres were trained by the Pakistan Navy and the ISI for a period from 12 to 18 months. The training included navigation, boat handling, diving, mining, communication, small arms and explosive training.

This intelligence was shared by the Home ministry at different timings during high level meetings meant for the police and security agencies. For instance While addressing the annual conference of the Directors-General of Police Bureau at New Delhi on November 21, 2006, Shri Shivraj Patil, the then Indian Home Minister, apparently indicated that “India's critical infrastructure is under serious threat and it's the coastline that's facing the increased threat perception. The coastal areas are coming under increased threat from groups like the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). “

As per media reports R&AW had intercepts this year on September 18, September 24 and November 19 that clearly indicated that the LeT would launch attacks on hotels along the Mumbai coast .Satellite intercepts had specifically indicated that the boats masquerading as Indian boats would be attacking hotels including Taj.

The hit group of ten fully trained cadres was to take the sea route and mingle with the Indian fishing vessels to evade detection and attack targets in five star hotels close to sea, Jewish center at Nariman house and other opportunity targets.

The master of the fishing vessel Kuber and the crew were killed. It is not known whether the master of Kuber was an accomplice or was taken hostage mid sea off the Gujarat coast. The bodies of the other crew members found by the coast guard are clearly indicative of violence at sea which ended the lives of Indian crew members.

There was specific positional information and intelligence based on satellite intercepts which provided the coordinates of a Pakistani vessel. If this was a ruse to draw the alerted Navy and Coast Guard units away from the actual area of operations it has worked.

Of some of the items found which included the jackets, a satellite phone and other things had Pakistan markings.

The numbers called from the seized Thuraya satellite phones of the terrorists apparently belong the masters in Pakistan who were in touch and controlling the operations in Mumbai.

The manner in which the attacks have been carried out has been found to be similar to the ones used by the Al Queda cadres. It is known that Al Queda is actively supported by the LeT in Pakistan.

The terrorist during interrogation has even indicated that his own family would be targeted by the LeT back home in Pakistan for having said too much that has proved the involvement of Pakistan.

There was obviously too much of debate and loud noises which allowed Pakistan to be prepare for the eventuality that would not have been preemptive any more. The Pakistan leaders and analysts went to the extent of hinting that the nuclear threshold could also be crossed. While Condoleezza Rice was aggressive and supportive of action against Pakistan both before and during her visit to New Delhi, on crossing the borders to Pakistan changed her stance. The considerations that the war against terror on the western borders of Pakistan may have to be put on the back burner due to repositioning of troops to face the Indian troops suddenly seems to have changed the US stance.

On the part of India, having wittingly or unwittingly but willingly adopted a defensive mind set, the country has followed a plan that is more suited to US interests. Having accepted US advice, the least India should do now is to at least pressurize US to hit the training camps which they failed to neutralize in time.

Some even felt that an attack at this stage would force the military in the Pakistan to destabilize the democratically elected government. Alternatively it could even unite the Army, the ISI and the Government in an action against India. Little did they realize that the so called elected government already was clueless about the attacks and it appears that the ISI and the army are calling the shots just as they did in the case during Kargil.

With the unwarranted public breast beating by the political leaders about military action not being ruled out, all necessary measures would have been put in place in Pakistan. It requires no special intelligence to figure out that the following actions have already been taken:-

Moving the training camps to the interiors and temporarily disbanding them.

Putting of Air Defence plans in place and relocating/redeploying air assets for facing air attacks.

Redeployment and strengthening of troops along the borders to thwart Indian offensive over land.

Recall of military personnel and keeping them in higher degree of readiness.

Enhancing of surveillance in the ocean areas and along the coasts.

Bringing the submarine forces to higher degree of readiness and sailing some of them.

Rehearsing the nuclear options and examining the nuclear trigger despite the recent assurances about not striking first.

Reaching out to the Muslim neighbourhood seeking political and military support.

For India, just as in the case of Kashmir soon after Independence, sadly the moment to act had come and passed. - Sri Lanka Guardian