Challenges for Anni, the new President

"With the elections behind Maldives, the new president has many challenges that would need to be taken head on. This paper makes an attempt to identify some of those challenges though not necessarily in the order of priority."

by Commodore RS Vasan

(November 07, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian) It has been indeed a tumultuous journey for Mohammed Nasheed from the days of being a “prisoner of conscience” to a person granted political asylum by Britain, to now the President of Maldives, essentially a group of over 1190 atolls in the Indian Ocean. This has brought an end to over three decades of presidential rule by Gayoom in Maldives. Though Mr. Gayoom was elected six times earlier, the process of elections was accused to be unfair. The struggle for democracy and transparency saw sustained struggle through the years by MDP and other opposition parties to bring about a change. The ruling party determined to browbeat the opposition had resorted to abuse of human rights and imprisoning of political opponents. This had forced the members of the main opposition party the MDP to flee the country and operate mainly from Sri Lanka and Britain.

Even the run up to these elections in October this year and the very process of electing a president had not been a smooth one. There were doubts about whether the Majlis (Parliament) would clear the constitutional amendments prior to the elections in time. The Supreme Court had cleared the contesting of Mr. Gayoom. The first voting on 04 October did not give clear majority to any of the six participants as required by the rules prompting a two way contest between Mr. Gayoom a veteran with over thirty years of presidentship and a young turk Mr. Noshed who is just forty one years but with considerable time both in prisons fighting the regime, promoting democracy while being in exile in Sri Lanka and Britain. The final results after the counting on 28th October gave Mr. Nasheed (53.65%) a lead of 8.33 percent in terms of votes and 15,101 in terms of numbers over his arch rival Mr. Gayoom(45.32%).

With the elections behind Maldives, the new president has many challenges that would need to be taken head on. This paper makes an attempt to identify some of those challenges though not necessarily in the order of priority

Firstly Anni has to ensure that the process of transfer of power is a smooth one. The assurance by the outgoing president that he would ensure such transition augurs well for the democratic process. On the part of Anni, he has already indicated that nothing would be held against Mr. Gayoom and has promised that the pensionery and other needs of the President would be looked after.

Secondly, there is a need to assure those who voted for Gayoom that he would address their concerns related to governance, religious practices and such like. This would not be an easy task for the President to be. There are many issues of concern related to whether the President would lean towards the west which has been sympathetic to him and has supported him through the thick and thin of the entire process.

Thirdly, there is a need to consolidate and enlarge the support base for him which is not just based on an anti incumbency factor. Mr. Anni has in all interactions has come through as an honest, candid person with leadership qualities to take the country forward. His years in the prison have hardened him and have made him fully aware of the expectations of the large majority that has supported him. He would like to identify issues of immediate concern and address them by carrying the large Sunni Muslim population with him. There are sensitive issues related to possibility of growing extremism which require adept handling.

Fourthly, there are issues of relations with the littorals in the IOR as well as the western countries who hold IOR as their back yard due to the energy nodes and the choke points in the region. Maldives by its geographic location, sitting astride the SLOCs (Sea Lines of Communication) has strategic significance for many countries around the world including India. China has been making forays in to the economic activities of Maldives and is more than willing to set up some kind of maritime activity including port that would extend its foot print in the IOR in general and the Arabian Sea in particular. The British who have supported Mr. Anni would be expecting favourable responses from some one who enjoyed their backing and support in promoting democracy in Maldives. Gan Island comes to mind immediately and it is of interest to see if there would be any renewal of demand for setting up of a strategic base in southern Maldives.

Last but not the least, there are serious environmental concerns both due to the increase in tourism related industry as well as the fears of Tsunami that stuck the Island on 26th December 2004. With the low lying atolls, it would be a challenging task to have contingencies in place to secure the safety of the population including that of the tourists who would be in the 81 Islands earmarked for tourism. There are plans to more than double the number of tourism specific Islands. During the run up to the elections, some time in July 2008, the MDP stalwarts along with the presidential candidate and leader Md Nasheed were in Chennai and Delhi interacting with some think tanks and officials. During a free and frank discussion at Chennai on 08 July, Anne came through as a person with strong convictions and a clear head seasoned by his persistent fight against the regime to usher democracy. During the discussion on the fragile environmental issues in Maldives when I intervened to say that there is no need for any foreign presence in the Archipelago for many known reasons, he readily said that it was one of his primary concerns to ensure that there is no external presence including that of China.

Having identified some of the immediate challenges for the new president, one needs to look at the Indo Maldivian relations in the changed context and see if there are any pointers that forbade change. The relations between the two countries have been very good and even on a personal level; Mr. Gayoom had excellent relations with those in powers at New Delhi. The relations were propelled to greater heights post the failed coup attempt in 1988 when India was able to send its forces in record time on call and prevent the take over of the Island by mercenaries. It is hoped that the new regime will do likewise and take the relations to greater heights.

In conclusion, it is clear that the election of MDP leader as the President in a highly credible, praiseworthy electoral process has paved the way for democracy and change of tidings. It is now left to MDP and its leader to take the country forward to help achieve its rightful place in the Indian Ocean.

(The author is presently the Head, Strategy and Security Studies at the Center for Asia Studies at Chennai and can be contacted at rsvasan2010@gmail.com ) - Sri Lanka Guardian