Tigers down, but still not out

by Kanchan Lakshman

(October 25, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) The LTTE has been on the verge of big defeats in the past. While fighting to the last man, it is continuing with a diplomatic offensive that may not work this time round

That there is an augmenting support for the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) within the political spectrum in Tamil Nadu is now clear. And the arrest of MDMK leader V. Gopalswamy a.k.a. Vaiko on October 23 on charges of sedition and abetting activities of an unlawful outfit is only expected to intensify the competitive show of strength for the 'Tamil cause' among the mainstream political parties in Tamil Nadu. This drumming of support for a cornered LTTE comes at a time when political parties in Tamil Nadu are already in an election mode and everyone wants to be counted in the pro-Tamil cause.

On the ground, the Sri Lankan Army senses a decisive military victory against the LTTE. At the time of writing, defence sources in Colombo said that troops are about 10 to 15 Km southwest of Kilinochchi, the LTTE headquarters.

Colombo's assessment is that the LTTE's fighting capacity is possibly at its lowest point in a long time. At least 8,201 LTTE militants have died this year till October 15. In comparison, 3,345 LTTE cadre were killed in 2007 and 2,319 in 2006. The Army Chief, Lieutenant-General Sarath Fonseka, had disclosed on July 18 that the LTTE had now lost about two-thirds of its manpower and land area to the security forces. Any more losses for the besieged outfit would mean a clear shift in the momentum in Colombo's favour.

However, a cornered LTTE is not throwing in the towel and would fight to the finish. Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse conceded as much on September 9, 2008: "Considering the arms and ammunition the LTTE have collected for the past 25 years we have to fight hard during the next few months. That is what people have to expect in the coming months." And the LTTE would definitely escalate the conflict by bringing the war to Colombo and other cities, like it has done on previous occasions. For instance, at least 45 terror related incidents have been reported from Colombo alone, while the number of incidents recorded outside the theatre of war in the North-East is 67.

Further, the LTTE's resilience and motivation are legendary. Even while it is losing large number of cadre, it continues to inflict higher and higher casualties on the security forces. The armed forces have lost 195 soldiers (according to figures collected by the Institute of Conflict Management) since entering the LTTE heartland, Kilinochchi district. The LTTE loss in the corresponding period counts to 1,333. However, between January and July, the LTTE had lost 5,743 cadre as compared to 547 soldiers. The security forces to LTTE loss ratio works out to 1:6.8 for the period since July 31, as against 1:10.4 for the earlier period.

The LTTE has been on the verge of defeat before. This time too, it continues to show it still has a kick left. It is simultaneously carrying out a diplomatic offensive, a manifestation of which is the upsurge of sympathy in Chennai for the 'Tamil cause'. In an election year, it has found quite a few willing buyers and a number of politicians have jumped into the Tamil bandwagon.

Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa has aptly said: "It is very clear that the LTTE is at a decisive stage. And no one can stop them getting defeated. So, they are trying their maximum to get Tamil Nadu (leaders) to pressurise the Indian government to in turn pressurise the Sri Lankan government. Anyway, the LTTE cannot escape facing military offensives now."

While there ought to be international pressure on both the Sri Lankan government and LTTE to resolve the dismal plight of civilian Tamils, there should be no sympathy for the LTTE, arguably the most ruthless terrorist group in the world.

New Delhi has to do a tight ropewalk in the current situation, especially considering the coalition arithmetic from Tamil Nadu for the forthcoming general election. "We are primarily concerned with the plight of the civilians and with a negotiated settlement," External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said while responding to the issue in the Rajya Sabha on October 23. He said India maintained very comprehensive relations with Sri Lanka, adding that providing a truck or cargo plane would not amount to providing military aid to that country. He said in the talks with Lankan leaders, the government had reminded Colombo that it was its responsibility to take care of over 200,000 displaced people. With the aim of negotiating in the future from an unambiguous position of strength, the Rajapaksa regime would continue its present military operations against the LTTE. Diplomatically, India should continue with the present level of engagement in that country while at the same time urge for restraint asking Colombo that a distinction be made between the LTTE militants and non-combatants.

Considering the present level of hostilities and violence, a persistent instability can be expected to continue in Sri Lanka in the foreseeable future. However, the political formations in India should stay clear of the mess in that country.

Meanwhile, New Delhi has made it categorical that it would not like to see ‘international players’ in its backyard. This is a clear signal to the LTTE that all hopes of tapping sympathy in India have vanished.

-- The writer is a Research Fellow of Institute for Conflict Management - Sri Lanka Guardian