“A good example is the Indian ban on the LTTE. This comes in spite Sri Lanka not banning the LTTE! Potential disintegration the LTTE can unleash within India is the main reason for the continuation of the LTTE ban, not the isolated assassination of a former Prime Minister.”
by Thomas Johnpulle
(October 16, London, Sri Lanka Guardian) Tamil Nadu politicians have rallied around the LTTE yet again to save it from sure extinction. Barring a few politicians, 39 elected representatives from Tamil Nadu have demanded that India intervenes in Sri Lanka and ensure that a ceasefire takes effect. They have given two weeks for the UPA government to act which is enforced by a threat to pull out from the government endangering its existence. Tamil Nadu politicians have stated that they are concerned about the safety of civilians held hostage by the LTTE. Clearly it is against Indian national interests to bailout a banned terrorist organisation and to bereave its only friendly nation in the region. Nevertheless, petty party politics can takeover Indian national interests as it has happened many times before.
Hypocrisy comes at a cost
India is fighting its own battles against manifold terrorist groups at home. Can India sink in hypocrisy by advocating surrender (to a terrorist organisation) in Sri Lanka while not emulating that at home? Such action would deny it the vital support it needs from neighbouring countries to fight its own war on terror. Besides, India’s disastrous involvement in Sri Lanka during 1987-1990 didn’t achieve any peace. The then Indian Prime Minister was welcomed by the Sinhalese with a ceremonial bash by a sailor; his IPKF and its conduct was dispersed by the Muslims demanding from the Sri Lankan government to send back the IPKF and the Prime Minister himself was blown into pieces by Tamil Tigers eventually! The three main communities of Sri Lanka have made it very clear that they do not want Indians interfering in their affairs. In 1990 the Sri Lankan government teamed up with the LTTE (Tamil Tigers) to chase away the Indians even without a thank you. The same would repeat if India tries to be nosy again.
As of today Eastern, Western and Northern Indian states are aghast with terrorism.
Furthermore these are unconnected and different terror groups. However, southern states have been devoid of terror and they have recorded the highest economic and social upliftment in recent years. If the LTTE survives in Sri Lanka, it is just a matter of few years, if not hours, till it reach the southern states. LTTE which is fighting for a Tamil nation cannot forget the Tamil motherland – Tamil Nadu. Its ultimate aim is to create a Panama-like nation for Tamils carving out portions from both India and Sri Lanka to the tune of 150,000 square kilometres of land, over US$ 60 billion (annually) worth economies, over 67 million people and to wrest complete control over Indian shipping routes just as Somali pirates do. Should this be the fate of India and Sri Lanka?
It is pathetic the way Tamil Nadu leaders representing over 65 million people bow down to the demands of a terror group that keeps under its control a mere 300,000 people. It would be worse for 1.1 billion Indians to concede to these jokers; even worse would be pressure coming from India down to Sri Lanka as a result!
Essentially this is back to back hostage taking like a chain reaction! Terrorism started with hostage taking and it’s grand ending is marked by serial hostage takings spanning across countries.
There is absolutely no need for a ceasefire in Lanka. What the island nation needs is the exact opposite; a violent military campaign to wipe out the LTTE from the South Asian and South Indian region is what is required.
Indian Isolationism
In the 1970s India got involved in the Pakistan-Bangladeshi war, but pretty soon the newly created nation of Bangladesh distanced itself from India. Today India has none but one friendly nation in the region. From Pakistan, through Kashmir, Nepal, Bangladesh, China, Burma upto the nations bordering far south eastern Indian islands, it has no friend! All these countries and emerging countries have teamed up with the sole Asian superpower – China.
The vast expanse of ocean to the south of India will turn hostile if it loses its only neighbourhood friend. Chaos would rule within as Maoist terrorists (ideology-based terrorists), Islamic terrorists (religious extremists) and Tamil terrorists (racist terrorists) would run riot everywhere. There is little or nothing India can expect from its neighbours in such an eventuality.
However, if India takes viable steps to eradicate terrorism from the South Asian region, most benefits would accrue to India itself. Given the potential for link-up of various terror groups presently functioning independently, India runs a grave risk of creating a monster in the region that can tear apart the world’s most diverse population.
A good example is the Indian ban on the LTTE. This comes in spite Sri Lanka not banning the LTTE! Potential disintegration the LTTE can unleash within India is the main reason for the continuation of the LTTE ban, not the isolated assassination of a former Prime Minister.
Tamil civilians in the midst of the war
India’s concerns for the people are understandable. Not only India, many countries and the EU, UN, AI and many other international bodies have aired their concerns. However, stopping the war is not an option. It can only achieve very short term results. Most displaced people cannot go back to their villages as the army would not withdraw from newly captured areas and the LTTE will not expose its cadres and leaders by letting civilians go. As a result, if India is genuinely concerned about civilian welfare in Sri Lanka, the only viable option is to support the Lankan government with its war effort while pressurizing it to maintain a sufficient degree of care in protecting civilians.
The futility of a ‘ceasefire’ that was not militarily enforced was seen clearly from what happened in Sri Lanka from 2002 to 2006. On the other hand the fate of the only militarily enforced ceasefire in 1987 collapsed within months.
At the same time India must be mindful of the aspirations of the Sinhala majority without which no solution is possible. The way to sustain the support of the majority at this juncture is by supporting the war effort today so that India will have a say in demanding the implementation of a political solution after the war. Breach this trust and no political solution will take root in this country.
Civilian casualties in the past one year have been very moderate compared to other conflicts that are raging around the world. Of course every life is valuable, but the human rights benchmark in a war situation is way different to a peaceful country. Holding 300,000 people captive to extort a terrorist demand from 20,000,000 Sri Lankans is wholly unacceptable. Giving into such demands will only set a very bad precedence that will lead to bigger and more frequent calamities of similar kind. Pretty soon Tamil civilians in LTTE clutches will turn against their captors. The earlier the tipping point comes, the better. It is impossible for the LTTE to slain a large number of civilians under its captive (although it will try to do so and put the blame on the government) since such a move will destroy the trust of the remainder. The moment the LTTE loses it human shield, it will be totally annihilated.
The other possibility
This war is far from over. There is a strong possibility that LTTE can launch devastating attacks that can force the island nation to come to a ‘peace’ deal. It happened in 1987 according to some accounts and again in 2001. What stops it from repeating again? Virtually nothing! However, it is likely that the present government will ferociously retaliate such moves by the LTTE and turn the tide back in favour of the armed forces. Also in response it will redouble what are known as ‘counter terrorism’ measures.
The vivacity of expression of Indian concerns recently by top Indian officials may dampen down this grit. As a result LTTE may have a higher chance of getting Sri Lanka on its knees by carrying out terrorist attacks.
Any lukewarm response from the government will frustrate the people especially the ruling party supporters and this may be capitalized by the main opposition which is still not fully committed to the war. The absence of the likes of Janaka Perera makes it only too easy.
Therefore even if India wouldn’t get involved in Sri Lanka in the first instance, it may be forced not only by the minority but also by a significant section of the majority to intervene and establish a ‘ceasefire’ in the event of a devastating terror attack for which the government couldn’t respond adequately. The main opposition will plead India (and others) to intervene and save the south while LTTE would demand the stoppage of the war in the north.
Therefore Indian pressure can either win or lose the war in Sri Lanka for the government depending on how it is taken by Colombo. No doubt LTTE will test this repeatedly in the coming weeks by launching a series of terror attacks in the south in the likes of the 2001 attack on the airport. The only option for the Lankan government is to continue with its modus operandi regardless but put in place more safeguards to protect civilians. In that event, the war would turn nastier and LTTE’s demise will hasten up.
Present war that has been raging in Sri Lanka for more than three decades has been very complex. Many tried solving it but failed. The biggest impediment to solving it has always been the lack of consistency of effort. Or the inability to persist with continuous effort. Toning down the war effort or shaking the determination of the Sri Lankan government to fight this all out war at this moment may become another example of inconsistency. This war must come to an end the way Sri Lankans want it to end.
Read authour's previous articles
( The writer can be reached at trjohnpulle@yahoo.co.uk)
- Sri Lanka Guardian
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