Israeli leadership change and Palestine

by Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

(September 19, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is resigning amid corruption allegations. In July 2008, facing corruption probe, Olmert announced plans to step down. In the run-up for his successor, his foreign minister Tzipi Livni has won the vote, albeit narrowly, to become the new leader of Israel's ruling Kadima party. The foreign minister beat Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz by a much narrower margin than the nine percentage points the exit polls had suggested. (Two television exit polls had suggested Ms Livni beat Mofaz by a margin of 48% to 37% but was just over one percentage point)Media are still talking about the margin of her win.

Livni needed 40 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff next week. Two other candidates lagged far behind in the tally. Shas' position will require some deft political maneuvering on Livni's part if she is to sidestep elections. "The good guys won," the one-time Mossad intelligence agent Tzipi Livni told her backers within the centrist Kadima party. Two other candidates trailed well behind. Livni has consistently led in polls. Some say there is little difference between the opposition Likud party Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz. Mofaz, a former army chief of staff who has talked tough on Iran, is seen as further to the right on security.

Israeli PM Ehud Olmert, who denies corruption claims, says he will step down after his Kadima party chooses his successor which could take weeks or even months. Sharon suffered major stroke in Jan 2006, Ehud Olmert becomes caretaker PM. In March 2006 Kadima wins elections and later forms coalition with Labor but in May 2007 a report criticized Olmert's handling of war. Olmert is under police investigation over his financial dealings. Olmert, who telephoned Livni with congratulations, has said he will resign as soon as Kadima has a new leader. But the outgoing premier, who could be indicted for corruption, has also vowed to exercise his right to stay on in a caretaker capacity until Livni forges her own, new coalition government. If confirmed, Ms Livni will now have about six weeks to form a new coalition, during which time Olmert will remain prime minister. If she can form a coalition Ms Livni, 50, will become Israel's first woman prime minister in more than 30 years. Livni vowed to start work immediately on forming a new coalition that will let her succeed the scandal-hit Ehud Olmert as prime minister.

Kadima Regime

Some 70,000 members of Kadima, which describes itself as centrist, are eligible to vote. The primary was Kadima's first since the party was founded by then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in 2005. Some what forward looking Ariel Sharon was elected prime minister in Feb 2001. In Nov 2005, he resigned from Likud to form a centrist Kadima party. Ariel Sharon set up Kadima as a personal bastion after his hard-line colleagues in Likud blasted his unilateral pullout from the Gaza Strip in 2005 and it was widely hoped he would pursue a sincere imitative to establish Palestine. Ariel Sharon split from Likud to draw together support from left and right for his policy of unilateral withdrawals from the Gaza Strip and parts of the West Bank. But its poll ratings fell as a stroke left Sharon in a coma. His successor, Olmert, faced strong criticism of his handling of the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war and he was investigated in several corruption scandals.
The coalition process, involving deals with ambitious Labor party leader Ehud Barak on the left and influential Jewish religious parties on the right, could take weeks or months. Many believe there may yet be an early parliamentary election, which polls show Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud would win. A potential general election would take place if a coalition government cannot be formed in the wake of the Kadima leadership vote.

Nationally, polls show Livni roughly tied with Netanyahu should elections be held today. A new nationwide vote would likely turn into a referendum on the current effort to forge a historic peace deal with the Palestinians. With opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu's hard-line Likud Party polling well, neither Kadima nor its coalition partners appear eager for a new election. But the ultra-Orthodox Shas Party, which could be key to building a new coalition, has already served notice that it would not join a government that is willing to negotiate the fate of disputed Jerusalem with the Palestinians.

New Premier

Sharon suffered a debilitating stroke in early 2006, and Olmert subsequently led the party to victory in elections. It was widely predicted Kadima would disintegrate after the exit of Sharon, but the moderate Tzipi Livni's victory appeared to give it a chance of survival. Critics say Ms Livni, a former Mossad spy, lacks political experience. Livni is regarded as being more dovish than Mofaz, when it comes both to dealing with the Palestinians and possibly to her readiness to order military action against Iran, the Islamic nation considered a “serious threat” by a nuclear Tel Aviv for its fast emerging as a nuclear power to strengthen the Arab profile. A specialist on Strategic Studies, noted: "Ms Livni is a good choice as far as Israel's foreign relations are concerned, but there is still the tension with Iran. I am not so sure how much experience she has for such matters and if she will be able to take the right decisions. She looks like 'Mrs Clean'... but she will still have to form a coalition. It is very difficult to predict whether she will be a strong prime minister."

The Iranian-born former defence chief, popular among fellow Jews of Middle Eastern as opposed to European origin, had yet to make any statement on the policies of the future government in Tel Aviv. But the daughter of storied Zionist guerrilla fighters of the 1940s will require combative spirit and political flair to consolidate her goal of becoming Israel. Livni pledged to heal rifts in the party left by the primary campaign, which ended with the Mofaz camp trying to challenge the count. The Iranian-born former defence chief, popular among fellow Jews of Middle Eastern as opposed to European origin, had yet to make any statement on the policies of the future government in Tel Aviv. But the daughter of storied Zionist guerrilla fighters of the 1940s will require combative spirit and political flair to consolidate her goal of becoming Israel's first woman leader since the redoubtable Golda Meir in the 1970s.

A fast-rising star in Israel's political firmament, Livni is Israel's lead negotiator in peace talks with the Palestinians and a rare female power figure in Israeli politics. A lawyer and former agent in the Mossad spy agency, Livni is eager to continue the low-decibel diplomatic efforts. She says she hopes diplomatic efforts to halt Iran's nuclear program will prevail, though she says all options are on the table. As lead peace negotiator, Livni is committed to discussing all the outstanding issues between Israel and the Palestinians, and the future of Jerusalem is at the heart of the conflict.

She made no direct mention of the peace negotiations she has been heading with the Palestinians for the past year. "The national mission ... is to create stability quickly," she said, adding: "There is economic instability." "On the level of government in Israel, we have to deal with difficult threats," Livni told reporters.

A Free Palestine

Ever since Jews established their home land on Palestine lands in 1947, there have been talks, meets and conventions to decide about a Palestine state. But the Israeli genocide of the Palestinians continues unabated.

The Arab Peace Plan and several other initiatives are on the table, the 2007 Annapolis summit aroused a lot enthusiasm among the Palestinians about a possible nation free from aggression and genocide from Israel. The Bush administration has vowed to create a Palestine state before he leaves White House, but later Bush made a quick dive in Jerusalem to say some “background work” could be achieved by the end of 2008.

Israeli PM Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas have been meeting regularly since new dialogue was launched at a peace conference in the US in November 2007. Core issues to be resolved include the status of Jerusalem, the borders of a Palestinian state, settlements in the West Bank, refugees, security and water resources. But there has been little visible progress and it is widely accepted by Israelis and Palestinians that an agreement by January is increasingly unlikely. Latest on Sept 16, Olmert held "serious" talks with Abbas and the two men would continue to meet until a new government was sworn in.

The US government wants to see a full peace deal reached before President George W Bush leaves office in January. A spokesman for Olmert described the discussions as "serious" and said the two leaders would meet again soon. Olmert has met Abbas for peace talks, a day before Olmert's party is due to replace him as leader.

Palestinian Information Minister Riad Malki was hopeful that peace talks could succeed under Israel's new leadership. "We hope this new prime minister will be ready to ... reach a peace deal with the Palestinians that ends the occupation and allows the establishment of an independent Palestinian state living beside Israel." But its poll ratings have fallen as a stroke left Sharon in a coma, while his successor, Olmert, faced strong criticism of his handling of the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war and was investigated in several corruption scandals. Popularity of Kadima is waning. Ms Livni's supporters hope she will breathe new life into a political establishment.

An Observation

It was foregone conclusion that the front-runners to succeed Olmert would pursue the state policy of Zionism. The key issue in Mideast region, however, remains the establishment of Palestine and the US initiative to achieve that by the end of this year. The moot question now if the changing color of Israeli cabinet will bring in a fresh boost for the implementation of Arab peace plan for establishing the long promised Palestine state to exist independent of Israeli attacks and atrocities?

The Kadima election comes as the US government is continuing its push for an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal before President George W Bush leaves office in January. Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas held talks on Sept 16 and the two would continue to meet until a new government was sworn in. The two men will meet again once Abbas returns from the opening ceremony of the annual UN General Assembly, where he is scheduled to meet Bush.

Palestinian peace negotiators -- and possibly the sponsors of the peace process in Washington -- were among those applauding as early counts from local offices seemed to confirm a win for Livni. Olmert has been pursuing peace talks with the Palestinians and has pledged to continue as long as he is in office. However, both he and his Palestinian counterparts now say they are unlikely to reach the U.S.-set target date of year's end for a final peace deal. Unless the Hams is brought back to rule the nation as elected regime, it would be difficult to persuade them to enter into agreement with Israelis. Any agreement they might reach would not be implemented until Abbas regains control of the Gaza Strip, ruled by Islamic Hamas group since June 2007.

Ever since Kadima was formed three years ago by the former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon after splitting from Likud to draw together support from left and right for his policy of unilateral withdrawals from the Gaza Strip and parts of the West Bank, there has been valid expectation that sooner than alter the promised Palestine nation would come into existence. Departure of Sharon form political scene has slackened the process and only led to serious conflicts in the region leading to severe hardships and loss of lives in Palestine. One cannot quickly say every thing is being meticulously engineered by USA and Israel to the detriment of the Palestinians. But the truth cannot be entirely different, either.

One does not really know if Ms Tzipi Livni would reactivate the momentum started by Sharon and contribute to the resolution of the Mideast burning issue by securing an independent nation for the Palestinians whose land s they have annexed to establish a Jewish state for themselves. Still, the world is looking forward to her positive contribution to the resolution of the enduring Mideast problem. - Sri Lanka Guardian