(August 04, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) The Rajapakse regime had been able carry out a brilliant campaign of war. However, it would be interesting to note the factors that would affect the future outcome of the war. Lets analyze these factors.
1) Economy Factor :- The economy currently is at 30% inflation level. For Rajapakse regime to maintain the war campaign successfully for the next several months, it would be imperative for GOSL to reduce the heavy inflation levels. A good method probably would be to cut on state expenditure. Interestingly, the existence of corruption in many state departments would be a major barrier to achieve this.
2) Ground Factor:- The ground factor is one of the most favorable factors for the Rajapakse regime. The LTTE is definitely at the backseat while Sri Lankan Security forces had been able to dominate all theaters of war. The morale of the Sri lankan security forces had been all time high. The security forces are well trained and well equipped. Comparatively, LTTE forces are less trained and heavily exhausted. The upcoming victories in Mannar and Welioya sector would augur well for the GOSL.
3) International Factor:- This factor fluctuates with the time. Due to several human rights issues, the international opinion had not been very favorable towards Sri Lankan state. However, international community also recognizes LTTE as a main hurdle for the peace in Sri Lanka. In this backlight, reduction of human rights violations would bode well for Sri Lanka as foreign government continues to hound for LTTE fund raising efforts.
4) Delhi Factor:- The Delhi factor too is in a favorable axis to the government of Sri Lanka. Indian policy makers had not yet forgiven or forgotten the Rajiv Gandhi assassination. They also see LTTE as a hazard for regional security. However, Delhi clearly sympathizes with Tamil sentiments. Any steps taken towards greater devolution would suit well to bolster further Indian support for the Sri lankan state.
5) Tamil Nadu Factor:- This is one of the greater hostile factors for GOSL. Through heavy infiltration, LTTE had made Tamil Nadu a major political and logistical base. The continues flow of refugees had also helped the LTTE cause well. The recapturing of West cause up to Pooneryn would suite well for GOSL. Furthermore, many diplomatic programs must be undertaken by Chennai consulate to combat LTTE propaganda machinery in South.
6) Intelligence Factor:- Sri Lankan intelligence had taken upper hand over LTTE intelligence at unprecedented levels. Further enhancement of intelligence networks in Colombo would thwart any future bomb attacks and LTTE's Southern infiltration. This would curtail any military or political setbacks in South thus strengthen the course of the war.
7) Political Factor:- Rajapakse government need to survive both upcoming elections. Due to activities of several corrupt politicians and heavy cost of living, many in South do not have a tremendous favorable outlook towards Rajapakse government despite many military victories. The Rajapakse government must take steps to clean its slate by addressing the issues of corruption and disruptiveness of likes of Mervin Silva, Duminda Silva in order to carry out a strong political campaign to the eyes of public of South. This would sustain the government and in return, it would sustain continuation of a successful military campaign.
( Udara Soysa is a journalist, editor and an author from Colombo, Sri Lanka. He had traveled extensively in South and Central Asia, Russia, Europe and North America. Currently he is a study International Relations in Atlanta, Georgia. He can be reached at usoysa@oglethorpe.edu )
- Sri Lanka Guardian
1) Economy Factor :- The economy currently is at 30% inflation level. For Rajapakse regime to maintain the war campaign successfully for the next several months, it would be imperative for GOSL to reduce the heavy inflation levels. A good method probably would be to cut on state expenditure. Interestingly, the existence of corruption in many state departments would be a major barrier to achieve this.
2) Ground Factor:- The ground factor is one of the most favorable factors for the Rajapakse regime. The LTTE is definitely at the backseat while Sri Lankan Security forces had been able to dominate all theaters of war. The morale of the Sri lankan security forces had been all time high. The security forces are well trained and well equipped. Comparatively, LTTE forces are less trained and heavily exhausted. The upcoming victories in Mannar and Welioya sector would augur well for the GOSL.
3) International Factor:- This factor fluctuates with the time. Due to several human rights issues, the international opinion had not been very favorable towards Sri Lankan state. However, international community also recognizes LTTE as a main hurdle for the peace in Sri Lanka. In this backlight, reduction of human rights violations would bode well for Sri Lanka as foreign government continues to hound for LTTE fund raising efforts.
4) Delhi Factor:- The Delhi factor too is in a favorable axis to the government of Sri Lanka. Indian policy makers had not yet forgiven or forgotten the Rajiv Gandhi assassination. They also see LTTE as a hazard for regional security. However, Delhi clearly sympathizes with Tamil sentiments. Any steps taken towards greater devolution would suit well to bolster further Indian support for the Sri lankan state.
5) Tamil Nadu Factor:- This is one of the greater hostile factors for GOSL. Through heavy infiltration, LTTE had made Tamil Nadu a major political and logistical base. The continues flow of refugees had also helped the LTTE cause well. The recapturing of West cause up to Pooneryn would suite well for GOSL. Furthermore, many diplomatic programs must be undertaken by Chennai consulate to combat LTTE propaganda machinery in South.
6) Intelligence Factor:- Sri Lankan intelligence had taken upper hand over LTTE intelligence at unprecedented levels. Further enhancement of intelligence networks in Colombo would thwart any future bomb attacks and LTTE's Southern infiltration. This would curtail any military or political setbacks in South thus strengthen the course of the war.
7) Political Factor:- Rajapakse government need to survive both upcoming elections. Due to activities of several corrupt politicians and heavy cost of living, many in South do not have a tremendous favorable outlook towards Rajapakse government despite many military victories. The Rajapakse government must take steps to clean its slate by addressing the issues of corruption and disruptiveness of likes of Mervin Silva, Duminda Silva in order to carry out a strong political campaign to the eyes of public of South. This would sustain the government and in return, it would sustain continuation of a successful military campaign.
( Udara Soysa is a journalist, editor and an author from Colombo, Sri Lanka. He had traveled extensively in South and Central Asia, Russia, Europe and North America. Currently he is a study International Relations in Atlanta, Georgia. He can be reached at usoysa@oglethorpe.edu )
- Sri Lanka Guardian
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