Sethu Project: Reasons for the Construction of the Canal

by Donald Jayantha Gnanakone

(August 09, Los Angeles , Sri Lanka Guardian) The past three months has seen such a flurry of activity and controversy never seen before in Sri Lanka, since the signing of the Indo-Sri Lanka Pact by Rajiv Gandhi and J.R.Jayawardene. This would have sealed the fate of Srilanka in terms of Indian dominance 17 years ago if not for the brave Srilankans who had the courage of their convictions not only to oppose the treaty, but also to defend the sovereignty of the nation by fighting the foreign military presence.

It is no mean achievement to have stood up to the second largest army in the world, and the largest democracy, and defeat them on our soil. At that time many openly opposed the treaty because it was an exercise to demonstrate and satisfy the geopolitical need and greed of India. Several clauses in the treaty, which for months was kept secret, clearly demonstrated the designs India had on the Port of Trincomalee in particular and other ports and airports in the Northeast in general. Most of the experts have eloquently highlighted the havoc this canal would wreck on the environment, flora and fauna of not only the Gulf of Mannar, but also the entire Bay of Mannar, and Western coastline, from Puttlam to Colombo. Fertile fishing grounds in Mannar, Puttlam, Chilaw, and Negombo would be totally destroyed.

Other marine related damages have been illustrated in great detail, which would have an impact not only on about 50,000 Sri Lankan fishermen, but others connected with the fishing industry, resulting in substantial unemployment or underemployment contributing to poverty. Sri Lanka will have to increase the amount of fish imported to the country at great expense. The GOM is 275 km wide and 160 km long. This would be an ECOSIDE of the environment. Environmental organizations and recognized NGO’s such as Manitham India, Eco Law, EFL, Green Peace movement are carefully studying the impacts of the SS canal projects and course of actions.

The affects on Agriculture, in the Northern Province is also a major concern, as the dredging would have a catastrophic effect on the water table, and increasing the salinity content of the drinking and irrigational water. This would have a drastic economic factor, destroying the livelihood of many farmers. Both these negative impacts would have a serious effect on the production of food, and marine products, thereby affecting the GDP of the country as well as increasing the unemployment especially in related activities. The lobbyist who protested the Noricholai Coal projects are strangely silent either due to ignorance of the consequential damages, and or being silenced by the Indian or UNP lobbies.

The potential damage to the Northern, and Western coastline due to a marine accident, or general pollution on a daily basis is also a serious concern. This also would have an effect very detrimental to our beaches, including sea erosion and pollution. The sad part of all this is that politicians and officials in power today in Colombo, who could make a positive impact to protect Sri Lanka, would be dead and gone or retired, when the serious damages are impacting Sri Lanka.

85 per cent of the transshipment cargo handled in the Port of Colombo is Indian container business. With the construction of the canal and development of the several ports in both the East and West coasts of India as container ports, the port of Colombo will most likely loose a major part of that business, which would have a drastic affect on the economics of the port of Colombo. Instead of being a hub port, Colombo would become a feeder port for both export and import containers, with the development of the Ports of Vallarpadam in Kerala, and Tuticorin and Chennai in Tamil Nadu. Port of Singapore Authority (PSA) has been contracted, quietly managing the container operations in Tuticorin. We confidentially learn that PSA are getting ready for some major expansion in the next 4-5 years no sooner the canal project begins. The port of Chennai, Vizagapattnam and Calcutta are making serious efforts in modernizing, in order to have direct or feeder services to the Far East or feeder services to Singapore for their container cargo. India would bypass Colombo to transship the containers, and there is no other container port conveniently located in the eastern seaboard of India or the Bay of Bengal, other than Trincomalee, which is in the same condition of development since independence.

It is crystal clear that no prudent financiers would bank roll the huge Hambantota or Galle project, as the return on investment would be a great risk. As a matter of fact with or without a canal these two projects have been an illusion in the minds of politicians who have fought ferociously for the Southern Singhala vote. These are what one would call the "Pork BELLY Projects" in the US congressional terms. Hambantota project is like the " reinvention of the wheel" when Sri Lanka within it’s own territory locates the largest unused natural harbor in the world. Trincomalee is not only blessed with excellent deep-port area, but thousands of acres of adjoining hinterland, which is presently unused, and is ideal for warehousing, storage of containers, and other shipping activities. Above all the disciplined and hard working human resources far exceeds the competition any nation in Asia could put forward.

The container business Colombo could potentially loose could easily be recuperated and captured by Sri Lanka having a second container port within months, at 20 per cent of the cost of recreating a new harbor on any coastline. 3 consecutive maritime nations for centuries from 1500 AD, never considered Hambantota as a harbor. The Portuguese, Dutch, British, and the French, used only Galle and Trincomalee as their ports, and fought many battles with each other for the ownership and use of the port. The British had the best use of the Trincomalee Port for nearly 150 years, especially during the Second World War, when the entire British Navy in the Indian Ocean could be accommodated. Trinco became the headquarters of the British Armed forces under Lord Mount-batten. If the private investors wish to develop the port of Galle or Hambantota they should be permitted to do so without risking the 20 million Srilankans meager resources.

This paper is not designed to condemn one port, and praise the virtues of the other. This is about the 21st century geo-politics, sovereignty of Sri Lanka, and commercial viability, prosperity, territorial integrity and independence of Sri Lanka as a nation. Most of us have not yet comprehended the true reasons behind the SS Canal project suddenly sprung on Tamil Nadu to their great delight, and Sri Lanka to their great shock and awe. There are no benefits to Sri Lanka except some misled politicians daydreams, of the land bridge across the Gulf of Mannar.

The Indian authorities are covertly buying the support of University Professors to sing the praise to the high heavens of disused little ports in the North would benefit commercially from the canal. These individuals have no idea whatsoever about international shipping or commerce, but they are simply "Singing for their Supper", competing with other Tamil politicians in Sri Lanka who themselves are well known to sing for their own supper in Colombo. One cannot take them seriously and there would be many others coming out of the woodwork to sing their support of the Indian project. The Tamil foreign Minister of Srilanka is heading the SSCP committee appointed by the cabinet, as well as being the most important adviser of the Sri Lankan President.

India, with such a huge economy, never provides cabinet approval so fast for spending a billion dollars without proper feasibility reports completed, including the environmental impact report. This project would be the only project where over a billion dollars has been approved, and the cabinet is now awaiting many reports to ratify the project. Even prior to that, the nodal agency has been formed and head quartered in Chennai, and the canvassing among Tamil Nadu politicians as to who will head the project under the DMK Minister of shipping has begun. Contrary to the popular belief, this project is neither a commercially prudent one, nor it is to placate the passions of Tamil Nadu politicians headed by Mr. Kaunanidhi, Vaiko Gopalaswamy, T R Baalu, Chidamparam and several others including Chief Minister Jayalaltha.

It is hilarious to see all of them claiming credit for the project to win the hearts and minds of the Tamil Nadu voters, despite the fact that half a million fisherman might be seriously impacted by this project and would become unemployed, or under employed. The other quarter million people affected due to the indirect ramifications of the fishing industry affected, does not concern the Tamil Nadu authorities, and Delhi. Their private arguments is that the net loss of employment would be mitigated with the increase in jobs with the shipping and canal project, but the real benefit is to the security and defense of India. To understand and comprehend the geopolitical and military implications of the GOI it is paramount to study recent public statements, and historical facts. Take a look of what the Naval Chief of staff Admiral Arun Prakash recently said.

The 21st century is going to be a maritime century.'' because of the imperatives of globalization and the consequent growth of sea-borne trade, of energy security and outgrowing dependence on maritime resources. Admiral Arun Prakash added that "while we have no wish to dominate anyone, we need to ensure that nobody else is in a position to dictate terms to us.'' Do we trust or believe him ? He, however, pointed out that a capable Navy was only one element of a maritime power. A large merchant fleet, modern ports with good infrastructure, a vibrant, efficient and self-reliant shipbuilding industry along with its supporting technical staff were vital ingredients needed for the emergence of the nation as a maritime power.

India built super computers when America prohibited sale of critical technology. It developed homegrown nuclear bomb, telecom satellites, Preethvi and Agni missiles when embargos and prohibition was the order of the day.

Quoting from a lengthy recent report from the prestigious Tamil net editor, on the strategic, geopolitical and military policies of India, is as follows.

"Advocating that the "Indian Ocean must remain truly Indian", the architect of the Indian Naval doctrine Panikkar and K B Vaidya a popular Indian author, in his work - 'The Naval Defence of India'. State "Even if we do not rule the waves of all the five oceans of the world, we must at least rule the waves of the Indian Ocean". They further emphasized that India must be supreme and undisputed power over the waters of the Indian Ocean. He argued for the creation of three self-sufficient and full-fledged fleets to be stationed at the Andamans in the Bay of Bengal, at Trincomalee in Ceylon and at Mauritius guarding the western and eastern approaches to the Indian Ocean in the early years.

However, until the seventies India was largely pre-occupied with the defense and security of its mainland and invested little in naval power. Two events at the time jolted defense planners in Delhi to take a more serious view of the Indian Ocean neighborhood in terms of India's security.

One was the acquisition of Diego Garcia by the US and the other was America's decision to send the aircraft carrier USS Enterprise to the Bay of Bengal in December 1971 in a show of support for Pakistan during the Bangladesh war.

India, with the support of its ally USSR, began a campaign for a nuclear free Indian Ocean. The campaign was aimed at preventing the US from developing Diego Garcia into a major base for nuclear weapons. Sri Lanka supported India during the Non Aligned Movement summit in Colombo in 1976 to adopt a resolution criticizing the US for developing a nuclear weapons base in Diego Garcia.

However, New Delhi's naval ambitions remained somewhat muted until the fall of the Soviet Union, which had provided a safety umbrella to India in the larger Indian Ocean theatre. But today India feels that it has to defend itself on its own. In recent years the importance of sea-lane security has become paramount in the thinking of Indian naval strategists. New Delhi's plans for rapid economic growth depended of safe, uninterrupted supply of energy to feed the country's burgeoning industry and fast expanding automobile market.

The Strategic Defense Review of Indian Navy, published in 1998, stipulated four specific tasks for the immediate future:

1) Sea based deterrence

2) Economic and Energy security

3) Forward presence and

4) Naval diplomacy. The four tasks are interconnected.

New Delhi has been able to postpone massive investments in a blue water navy by developing the natural forward defenses in either side of peninsular India - in the Lakshadweep Islands in the Arabian Sea and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal. The Malacca Straits is the second busiest sea-lane in the world. And most of the ships approach the Straits through the 10-degree channel, which bisects the Andaman Islands from the Great Nicobar Islands. Therefore Delhi has made huge investments in developing its forward military presence on the islands as it gives it dominance over the second busiest sea-lane choke point. The strategic importance of the islands has been a historical fact.

During negotiations for India's independence, the Muslim League demanded that the Andaman Islands should be an integral part of Pakistan for geographical and strategic reasons. It must also be pointed out that sections in the British Defense establishment wanted the islands to be detached from India. They wanted the Andaman and Nicobar Islands to be made into a separate Crown Colony, which would, in turn, safeguard the strategic interests of the far-flung British Empire. However, this did not materialize due to stout opposition from Nehru who had close friendship and support of both the Mountbatten’s on the matter. The responsibility for the security of the Bay of Bengal, including Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and also the waters extending to the six littoral states in the region - Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Sri Lanka - was vested for a long time with the Indian Navy's Eastern Naval Command based in Visakhapatnam.

In August 1998, New Delhi decided to establish a Far Eastern Marine Command at Port Blair in Andaman, independent of operational control from Visakhapatnam. The idea was modified in favor of a Joint Service Command in 2001. The Command will be headed by the three Services in rotation and will function directly under the Chief of Defense Staff of the Indian armed forces. There are plans in Delhi to develop Port Blair as a strategic international trade center and for building an oil terminal and trans- shipment port in Campal Bay (Great Nicobar islands) to cater to increasing maritime trade in the region.

India, while consolidating its forward position and grip on the entrance of the Malacca Strait, ensured that no external power could dominate the vital sea-lane further southwest in the Bay of Bengal by signing the Indo-Sri Lanka Agreement (ISLA)in 1987. The Letters of Exchange in the ISLA preclude anyone except India from using Trincomalee - a strategic port necessary for dominating the sea-lanes that emanate from the Malacca choke point. India is insisting on similar conditions to provide 500 million Indian rupees financial assistance to repair and reconstruct the Jaffna airport. (Palaly). According to Delhi watchers this condition was not a surprise to anyone.

However, China since the late eighties quietly moved to develop safe line of energy supply from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea set off alarm bells in Delhi. India appears to fear this line of supply defined by the strategic facilities that China has developed along this route could give Beijing naval advantage in the region. This concern should be seen in the light of the fact that China has developed naval facilities on the Greater Cocos Island, which is part of the Andaman Archipelago but belongs to Myanmar.

China has built a naval base in Bandar Abbas on Iran's coast on the northern side of the Hormuz Strait in the Persian Gulf. Further east on the Pakistan coast China is building a dual-purpose naval facility in Gwador. The next stop on this line of supply are Maldives and Sri Lanka.

China negotiated a deal with Maldives from 1999 to build a base in Marao one of the largest islands of the 1192 atolls that make up Maldives. It lies 40 kilometers from Male. The base deal was finalized after two years of negotiations when Chinese PM Zhu Rongji visited Male on 17 May 2001 on his four nations South Asian tour.

The Marao base will not be operational until 2010.Beijing will use Marao Island for 25 years on fee-paying lease. An Indian defense reporter, sounding the alarm at the time, wrote: "Coral islands make fine submarine pens. The People's Liberation Army - Navy (PLAN) proposes to deploy nuclear submarines fitted with sea launched Dong Feng 44 missiles and ballistic missiles in Marao.

The dangers posed by the SSC project, clearly violates the mandates of UN Law of Sea Convention, 1982. Which would be at issue if Sri Lanka decides to exercise its sovereignty and territorial integrity, as it keeps regularly talking about it when it comes to the negotiations with the Tamils.

- Part II, Section 2, Article 6 deals with Reefs, Article 10 speaks about Bays.- Part V, Article 61 - Conservation of the living resources, Article 64 - Highly Migratory species.- Part V, Article - 65 and Part VII, Section 2, Article 120 also speaks on Marine Mammals.- Part VII, Section 2, Article 116 speaks on fishing rights.

- - Part XI, Section 2, Article 145 and Article 237 emphasizing that protection of Marine Environment is obligatory. In the same part Article 146 urges the need for protecting the Human life, Article 149 and Part XVI, Article 303 both deals with Archaeological and historical objects.- Part XIII, Section 3, Article 254 dealt with Rights of neighboring land-locked and geographically disadvantaged States. Sri Lankan legal experts in maritime law need to provide the necessary opinion to the GOSL committee appointed by the President.

- Part XI, Article 169 - before implementation [of the SSCP], consultation should be held with Independent International NGO's on this project for perfect clearance in all forms and terms. On these criteria, Sri Lanka should insist on 'Independent International Experts' to be permitted to provide a fair report on SSCP, after careful study. (MANITHAM REPORT)

On the Energy security, India has already moved into Trincomalee, and captured the 99 oil storage tanks, hundreds of acres of strategic land, and part of the port without firing a single shot. Details of the lease of the oil tanks are still shrouded with mystery, secrecy and payments for the lease, if any remains undisclosed. Now India wants to make Trincomalee a bunkering hub, selling retail bunkers to foreign ships, fishing trawlers, and servicing their own expanding navy in perpetuity pro bono. In other words India already has a naval base in Trincomalee to be utilized at their discretion without any interference from the GOSL.

This would be in direct competition with Hambantota if ever the project begins and more significantly is ever completed. Would India promote and assist the Hambantota project in any manner when the GOI owned LIOC has vested commercial interest in the bunkering and other facilities in Trincomalee Port? It would be a total disadvantage for the SLPA or some private operator to compete in the bunkering business with a giant like GOI owned LIOC operating from the Port of Trincomalee. Large vessels using the SSC proceeding to the Bay of Bengal, Europe or Far East would have the opportunity to Bunker in Trincomallee, and if cargo handling facilities such as cranes, barges and warehouses are available even use the port for it’s cargo operations in the future.

Another hidden agenda of the SSCP is the potential of Oil and Gas being available for exploration in the Gulf of Mannar. With the oil prices rising daily and possibly reaching $60 per barrel before the year-ends, the gulf is ready to be explored and exploited as a future source of energy provider. With all the equipment available after the dredging just a few miles away, the bio diversity destroyed, Cauvery basin already generating oil, there won’t be any hurdles to overcome for the Indians to explore for energy in that region.

GOI would ensure foreign oil companies have no chance in bidding for exploration rights. Over the years the oil revenue itself would pay for the entire cost of the SSCP, and most of the benefit will remain in India with Sri Lanka or the Tamil Province of Northeast (Whatever it is named in the future) receiving hardly any benefit in the event of windfall oil profits. There is every intention of Delhi to deprive, deny, and cheat any and all benefit from oil and gas revenues, which legitimately belongs to the people of that region and Srilanka. India is determined to keep the European and American oil companies out of Sri Lanka, and secure the maximum benefits out of the future oil and gas finds in the Gulf of Mannar. India would only increase it’s stranglehold on Sri Lanka’s economy in general and the Energy sector in particular.

Therefore the underlying reasons for the SSCP is the military advantage, geopolitical need and greed, and energy security which all fits into the Indian Naval doctrine carefully planned, clearly thought, and systematically documented many years ago. Now it is being executed with surgical precision and undue haste.

It is crystal clear that Sri Lanka has been caught in deep slumber. The Delhi and Chennai high commission are guilty of not being alert to these moves, which has been well known in both Chennai and Delhi political circles. Sri Lanka’s Ambassador in Delhi has been there for several years and is a veteran. Sri Lanka should show some independence from India but due to poor economic policies and lack of liquid assets has become totally dependent on India. This would only ruin the future of Sri Lanka, but making it nothing but a welfare state of India.

Come hell or high water, India is determined to bulldoze this project down Sri Lanka’s slender throat. Delhi will receive all the support from Tamil Nadu politicians, who will be prepared to suppress any dissent, as well as they hope to receive popularity among the voters. The complexity of shipping and return on the $2 Billion investment is not a priority for India. Whether small Islands in the North West of Sri Lanka submerges under water, the North becomes saline, Fishermen and Farmers loose their livelihood, several others loosing their employment, Colombo port loosing it’s major business and importance, is no concern to India.

It is essential to highlight to India the much hyped saving of time and fuel is only a fallacy. The 21st century ships averaging 15 Knots, will take about 24-28 hours to circumnavigate Sri Lanka from Bombay or the Persian Gulf. From the Malacca straights it would be much less. DMK Minister of Shipping and other Indian journalist fail to comprehend that transiting the SethuSamuderam Canal would involve time at very slow speeds, and would require additional services such as pilotage, tugs, as well as expenses such as canal transit dues, tonnage dues, pilotage fees, and Shipping agency fees. During Northeast monsoon the delays for transiting the canal could be substantial. That bay is also subject to cyclonic effects such as in 1964 when Dhanushkodi was submerged under the ocean and remains submerged. Constant dredging of the canal would be necessary at additional costs to India.

Maritime accidents resulting in serious pollution is a distinct possibility. If war breaks out in Sri Lanka or India in the future ships could come under deliberate attack from the warring parties, or accidental damages could occur to merchant ships from outside naval forces or missiles. This would increase further the cost of Insurance for ships transiting the canal.

The time saved might be very minimal, or even delays could cause more time utilized, additional costs for ship owners, ships prone to accidents transiting the canal with other ships, fishing vessels, or grounding. Strikes or labor unrest, which India is usually troubled with, and weather related delays, also could pose a problem.

Contrary to popular belief the average size of tankers transporting crude oil from the Persian Gulf to the Far East or US West coast are 150,000 tons. The average size of Container Mother vessels even now is over 40,000 tons. The next generation container vessels would be over 60,000 tons. None of these ships would be able to transit the Sethusamuderam Canal, which only a few in Delhi are aware of but decided to keep it under wraps until the project gets into full gear.

The port of Trincomalee without any present or future dredging, expensive breakwaters like that is needed in Tuticorin, Colombo or Hambantota can accommodate easily what the 21st century ship builders can accomplish or what the shipping trade requires.

Therefore in terms of cargo volume quite a substantial portion of the cargo will be forced to bypass the canal, as well as Colombo and Hambantota. Only smaller ships going to the Bay of Bengal, where most of the ports are "River Ports" with severe draft and tide restrictions would transit the canal, albeit without saving of time or money. It is incumbent upon India to carefully study how prudent this 1 or 2 Billion dollars are going to be for commercial reasons. But if the purpose of the canal is to build a safe haven Naval base, surrounded by two landmasses, as well as a sub marine and missile base for the 21st century then the SSCP becomes a priceless project. That is India’s prerogative, but should not damage or cause any damage to Sri Lanka and it’s flora, fauna or it’s people. It also should not cause havoc to the ocean or seabed in the Gulf of Mannar or the Indian Ocean. That violates the Law of the Sea Convention rules, as well as neighborly conduct. In the 21st century no nation can disregard International treaties and environmental issues even if land or water areas are within their own territorial borders.

Srilanka needs to question itself what can be done to counter the negative impact and possible disastrous economic consequences of the SSCP. As a matter of fact with Defense pacts being considered, and the possibility of another war with the Tamils in the near future, Sri Lanka might hand over the defense duties and responsibilities once again to India soon. Our only answer is to develop the ports and airports of Trincomalee, and KKS independent of India.

Commence and complete a peace agreement with the Tamils with the establishment of the ISGA as soon as possible. If there is Peace with the Tamils, investment in Billions of dollars would pour in to Trincomalee and the rest of Sri Lanka, for the Free Trade Zones, and Industrial Zones. Over 100 hundred-tourist hotels can be constructed with the establishment of the ISGA and dawning of "real" peace in the Northeast.

Elevated "toll" coastal highways can be constructed with minimum investment and expenditure to the GOSL. Seafood production, Commercial Agriculture and Dairy production will increase significantly, contributing to the increase in the GDP, and prosperity. KKS can produce 2 million tons of cement with the lime stone raw materials readily available in Jaffna, thus saving that quantity of cement being imported from India and generating employment both direct and indirect, and related cement based industries.

GOSL cannot be afraid of the development of Trincomalee. The two most successful industries in Sri Lanka are located in the port of Trinco. The chauvinistic and racist argument that the Tamils will get all the jobs would prove fatally flawed. If Prima Singapore or Mitsui’s Tokyo Cement were contacted they would confirm 75 per cent of the employees are Singhalese and Muslims. With such development in the Trincomalee district the main Singhalese parties would essentially increase their representation in parliament by 100 per cent. The past 20 years the Tamil MP’s in the Trinco district has been a maximum of two.

KKS can immediately commence operations and produce 2 million tons of cement with their own raw material. A coal generating plant could be set up in both KKS and Trincomalee to generate the power requirements once the ISGA is established. International communication could be improved in the north and the east very quickly. All the bulk cement facilities in the port of Colombo can be easily and economically handled in Trinco thus freeing those berths and space for container operations. Similarly nearly a million tons of break bulk cargo can be handled in Trinco instead of Colombo. SLPA will earn more money from the Trinco operations than with P and O’s SAGT in QEQ without loosing it’s investment of 30 years, as well as loss of income due to SAGT’s arrival.

With the second International Airport there would be a true National Airline once again emerging, as well as increase in domestic carriers, and a true hub airport to service the region. Both airport and port would not compete with Colombo, as many are paranoid and fearful about, but can compliment each other and expand the business. Colombo streets would become less congested and polluted, and a lot of warehouse space, Container freight Station space would become quickly available for better revenue generating projects.

The treasury or government agencies (SLPA or SLAA) can maintain part ownership, as well as there would be participation from the big business groups, that would ensure the profits remaining in Srilanka. With commercial trawling based from Point Pedro, Trincomalee and Mullaitheevu, export of marine products both by Air, and Sea would increase many fold. Even cruise ships would soon call Trincomalee, with duty free complexes like in Singapore and Dubai being established for both Indian and other tourist.

Our own regional cruise ships can operate to cater for the millions of Indian, Maldives and domestic tourist. Ferries can operate between Srilanaka and India. Air sea packages would be made available like in the carribean, between Southern India and Trincomalee. Ferries would regularly operate in addition to RO/RO vessels and container feeder vessels if necessary.

Foreign investment from the Tamil Diaspora also would be guaranteed if the Trincomalee and KKS districts were permitted to be developed by the private sector. Billionaire investors like Raj Rajaratnam, Sanjay Kumar (Part owner of Computer associates) both Tamil expatriates and many other millionaires, as well as South Asian companies would be encouraged to invest more in Sri lanka.

The former Prime Minister permitted a group of US based consortium to commence a feasibility study to develop Trincomalee last year. This group in association with a group of Colombo based investors had already obtained the blessings of the LTTE leadership, for the project, which the GOSL and the US embassy was aware of. This same group had several discussions with the GOSL on the second International Airport to be located in Trincomalee providing numerous valid reasons.

Unfortunately the committee, which was set up to select the location, did not even consider the Trincomalee location as an alternative for unknown or unexplained reasons. Ratna Seevaratnam a retired Tamil businessman headed this committee with three other Tamils with whom private discussions were held. He did not even inform the other members of the committee about the discussions, communications, and correspondence. The political decision was made by the GOSL and UNP to locate the second airport in the South.

There was also an experienced Australian based organization in association with a British group recently offered a plan to develop Trincomalee as a BOI project. This partially owned Sri Lankan group is anxiously awaiting a response to this offer for the past few months. Both these groups are prepared to pool their resources collectively to commence the project and make the development a reality. The projected investment is around $500 million dollars over 5-7 years period with 50,000 employment to the district of Trincomalee and adjoining districts such as Pollonoruwa and Anuradhapura. Trincomalee would become the Hokgkong or Singapore of South Asia,the Dubai of the Persian Gulf or the Switzerland or Europe. We lost that opportunity in 1977 under J R Jayawardene and the civil war of 1983.

If not, all the investment would move into Tamil Nadu, as the industrial zones similar to China, would be created there. Shipping and Aviation opportunities would increase many hundred folds in Tamil Nadu. Trincomalee and KKS would only become an Indian naval base, sub marine and missile base and part of the Southern command of the Indian military in the near future. The FTA with India has increased the trade in balance in favor of India in a significant manner. Small industries would be wiped out in Sri Lanka if we do not change our policies or regain our independence from India.

I dread to imagine the consequences and ramifications of the failure of the Peace process. Without any development the LTTE would have failed to deliver any peace dividends to the Tamils. Due to myopic and racially motivated, chauvinistic policies of the GOSL, ports in Trinco, Point Pedro, Mannar and KKS would remain undeveloped and under the choke hold of Indian and Sri Lankan military forces.

The Tamils and their sole representatives would have no alternative but to abandon the mistakes of the LTTE negotiating team in Bangkok in September 2002, and fight for the liberation of it’s people and territory. Sri Lanka would plunge into another ferocious and vicious civil war, despite any defense agreement with India or International safety net. Due to the security situation even India would be forced to postpone it’s activity in Trincomalee and KKS, as well as any oil exploration in the Gulf of Mannar. The future of the SSCP will also be in jeopardy, as the Palk Bay would become as area of conflict.

The security situation in Colombo would become untenable, the safety of VIP’s insecure and uncertain, insurance premiums skyrocketing and the stock market diving to new lows. There would be minimal FDI, real estate market depreciating, and tourism vanishing with only empty hotel rooms or damaged hotels and buildings to show.

The world has witnessed what is happening in Iraq, with the most powerful military in the world. The death, injuries, and destruction are tearing the American nation apart. Sri Lanka has seen and experienced such horrible conditions in the past 21 years. Only in the past 3 years that Sri Lanka has experienced a steady peace conditions, thanks to the ceasefire agreement signed by the UNP and the LTTE. Thankfully the ceasefire is still holding under trying conditions despite the change in government in April 2004. Indian military would not get suckered again like in 1987 to fight GOSL’s battles even with a defense agreement being signed. The Indian politicians have learnt from their previous mistakes and experience. Sonia Gandhi or J N Dixit who have personally experienced the worst of the Sri Lankan war would not permit the past mistakes to occur again even if "revenge" motivates them.

For the sake of Peace and Prosperity to Sri Lanka, and to safeguard the sovereignty and integrity I would urge the GOSL to carefully consider this document in the spirit it is written. My only desire is overwhelmingly to see a permanent peace prevailing in Sri Lanka. We cannot permit Sri Lanka to turn into a Biafra.

In conclusion if GOSL are unable to prevent the SSCP they can at least negotiate some compensation for the affected civilians and regions, and ensure protection of the environment and prosperity of the nation. Sufficient safeguards, developmental plan for the next 10 years, as well as compensatory device should be set in motion to ensure the provinces and people who are affected should be adequately compensated financially for their losses and other damages. Some of the suggestions are as follows,

1. Compensation Insurance Fund for the Fisherman if they loose their income and livelihood. This fund should be used to indirect beneficiaries of all those who are affected by the fisheries. Alternate vocational training for them and educational facilities especially in the Mannar district and the Northern Island.

2. Similar fund for the farmers. Additionally a desalinity plant converting Sea Water to Fresh water in Point Pedro area one fourth the size of what India is building in Madras. Funds for rain water harnessing and irrigation tanks in the Killinochi, Manaar, and Mulaitheevu district, as well as the Thondamanaar causeway to be allocated by GOI and GOSL and other donor nations.

3. Some compensation Insurance fund for environmental damage, and pollution damage for the gulf of Mannar, and the Northern Beaches.

4. Funds to develop the Ports of KKS, Point Pedro, TalaiMannar, and Trincomalee for only commercial purposes in Aid, Grant, and loans. Not for any military purposes. (At least $200 Million dollars over 5 years).

5. New Airports in Trincomalee to be built as the Second International Airport in Sri Lanka. GOI, to fund by way of Aid, Grant, and loans at least 50%. The Airport to be used only for commercial purposes.

6. At least 3 Universities, 3 Junior colleges, and three vocational districts to be built in the most affected areas.

7. No naval bases to be built in and around the SSCP canal or neighboring areas. Sri Lanka should not be target, real or accidental in any missile or conventional war in the 21st century due to India's military activity.

8. If oil and gas is found in the Gulf of Mannar then GOI and GOSL should adequately compensate and ensure the province and the State equally share the benefits.

This way most of the potential losses, and fears could be addressed, including the losses to the Colombo port can be compensated by way of development of the Container and commercial port in Trincomalee, and other shipping activities in KKS and Point Pedro, Trinco and TalaiMannar which can be used as a Fisheries and Shipping harbor.

This way both India and Sri Lanka, can amicably resolve the SSCP problems, and keep the DMK, LTTE, and the Indian military planners backed by the US to keep China under check in the India Ocean power politics, under control.

Failing which Sri Lanka and the NE Province need to do whatever that is necessary to protect and promote the best interest of it's people, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of the nation in general, and NE province in particular. The KEY WORD here is CONSULTATION, CONSENSENSUS, COMPROMISE, and COOPERATION.

The Tamils are prepared, ready, willing and able. India should not bite the hand extended in friendship. DMK and Tamil Nadu cannot act selfishly only in the interest of the people of Tamil Nadu. They need to be fair, reasonable, and just with their immediate neighbors the Tamils of the North East Province.

(These are the personal views of the writer , he can be reached at : teneeds@hotmail.com )
- Sri Lanka Guardian