Pakistan for a new President

by Dr.Abdul Ruff Colachal

(August 23, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) As per notification from the Election Commission issued on 22 August, Pakistan will hold a presidential election on September 6 to vote in a replacement for Pervez Musharraf, who resigned on August 18 amid threats of an impeachment case against him. Under Pakistan 's constitution, a new president is elected by members of the country's four provincial assemblies and the national parliament within 30 days of the post becoming vacant.

Side-switching

A major opposition party Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) known to support president Musharraf backs Benazir Bhutto's widower and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) supremo Asif Ali Zardari to become Pakistan 's president, as the power struggle following the resignation of Pervez Musharraf intensified. Opposition backing will give him an edge in the struggle with coalition partner Nawaz Sharif over key issues, including the restoration of judges.

A MQM leader Haider Razvi, who earlier insisted on Musharraf’s continuation has now said it wanted Zardari as president because of his past sacrifices and for his "wisdom and vision" in handling Musharraf's ouster. The MQM is the second-largest opposition group in Parliament, which dominates Karachi and other areas in Sindh. Razvi called for a president from outside Punjab , adding that Zardari - a Sindhi - was "most eligible" for the job. "He is a strong believer in the federation," he said.

Stalemate

There is still no sign of a compromise on a dispute over the restoration of judges Pervez Musharraf purged last year. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's (PMLN), the second biggest party in Pakistan 's fractious ruling coalition is threatening to quit the alliance unless a decision is taken to restore judges dismissed by former president Pervez Musharraf. Pakistan 's coalition held talks on August 22 Friday to save the alliance between the country's two main parties, but the partners failed to come to any agreement. However, Sharif pulled back from his threat to withdraw his PML-N party from the governing coalition after talks with other coalition parties in Islamabad.

But Pakistan's former Prime Minister has agreed to let parliament debate how to reinstate judges sacked by former President Pervez Musharraf. The coalition parties will draw up a draft resolution over the weekend which will be introduced in parliament on Monday. "Wednesday should be the day for reinstatement of judges," Nawaz told journalists.

Zardari?

Another divisive issue is likely to be the question of the next president. Sharif now prefers what he calls a consensus president and expects the PPP to offer the presidency to him since he is the senior most leader and a former premier. Sharif, but the PPP has clearly ruled that out. Meanwhile, it appears Asif Ali Zardari is all set to make an announcement on his nomination soon. Zardari has declined to say if he wants to be president but if he were to go for the post he would likely want it to retain certain powers, including dissolving the National Assembly, rather than making the presidency a ceremonial post.

Speculations are rife that the coalition would collapse with many arguing that Sharif and Zardari need to share the burden of tackling Islamic “militancy” and serious economic problems. The departure of Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) from the coalition would not force an election, as the PPP should be able to gather enough support from independents and politicians who backed Musharraf to rule. However, if it does, Zardari's party could look to the MQM and even elements with the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, the largest opposition bloc, to shore up the government.

Historical Rivalry

The PPP and Sharif's party were bitter rivals during the 1990s when Bhutto and Sharif both served two terms as prime minister. Although the PPP and PML-N worked together to hound Musharraf from office, there is a history of intense rivalry and mistrust between the two main parties. The parties differ over the future of Musharraf, who has been replaced by a caretaker president, the speaker of the Senate. Zardari's party has said it believes Musharraf may have immunity from prosecution. But Sharif's party argues he should stand trial for, among other things, abrogating the constitution.

But the end of the PPP and the PML-N alliance would likely set the scene for a battle over who becomes the next president. A battle over who becomes the next president is likely to divert government attention from economic and security problems, to the dismay of investors and allies. However, Zardari, who heads the PPP has played down speculation that he covets the presidency.

Zardari took over as PPP leader after Benazir Bhutto was assassinated in December. The coalition was elected in February but analysts say it has failed to find solutions to Pakistan's economic crisis and violence in its north-western tribal regions bordering Afghanistan. Parliament will debate the issue next week. Pakistan's biggest party, the PPP, opposes Sharif on the issue. They fear it could result in PPP leader Asif Zardari facing prosecution. If former Supreme Court judges, including ex-Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, are reinstated, they could overturn a controversial amnesty that Musharraf granted Zardari and his wife Benazir Bhutto last year that paved the way for them to return to the country.

A Word

Speculative scenario in domestic murky politics has made serious impact on the economy scene of Pakistan as well. Pakistani stocks and the rupee strengthened next two days after Musharraf’s exit on the hope Musharraf's resignation heralded an end to political uncertainty. But both weakened thereafter on Wednesday as a showdown loomed within the coalition over the judges. Pakistan 's stock market, which rose for six consecutive years to 2007, and was one of the best-performing markets in Asia in that period, has fallen about 27 per cent this year.

Pakistan has a gigantic task of steering back the national economy, its security which has been under constant threat form various domestic and foreign forces for quite some time now. It does look as if Musharraf’s ouster would usher in a new era and pretty quickly. Every thing will now depend on when and how fast Pakistan becomes a stable Islamic nation, if the leaders are still committed to the mandate of Pakistan established in 1947.
- Sri Lanka Guardian