A Good Political Solution Can Only Come After the War

“A political solution that may be found during times of war may not be suitable after the war. Suppose the government manages to defeat the LTTE substantially and establish government rule throughout the island, then the powers and privileges given to the LTTE will be naturally suppressed. Also a solution acceptable at one stage of the war is not suitable at another stage. A good example is the CFA. The government and the LTTE cannot go back to the status quo of the CFA.”

by Thomas Raj Johnpulle

(August 15, London, Sri Lanka Guardian) Whether the government can win the war or cannot win the war is yet to be seen for sure. However, from a Sri Lankan point of view, it must win the war if there is to be any chance of unifying the country. The government seems to have put the political process in the back burner. There cannot be any argument on the requirement of a political solution and all the political parties accept that. Severe disagreements exist on the specifics of the solution. LTTE has always rejected not only all political solutions, but also the processes used to find solutions.

It is futile attempting to find a political solution while the war is raging. Halting the war to find a political solution is also a time wasting exercise as there were many such efforts and each of them ended up in disaster. A good political solution is only possible after the war.

Essential ingredients of a political solution

For a political solution, all parties to the problem (not mere political parties) must be ready for sacrifices and compromises. LTTE demands that it is the sole (only) representative of the Tamil people. It does not tolerate any other Tamil representation in the North-East. TNA which is the mouthpiece of the LTTE also upholds this view. Militarily and politically, LTTE seems to be the de facto sole representative of the Tamil people today although a very small number of anti-LTTE Tamil politicians are in decision making capacities. However, this representative is not open for compromises and that is the end of finding a political solution where the LTTE commands such a status! There are only few options available to break this deadlock. Politically, TNA should function independently and should be willing to compromise or TNA should be replaced with a more consensual party by way of an election. Militarily, LTTE should be defeated to an extent where its military influence on the Tamil people is lower than that of other forces.

This is one main reason why a political solution can come only after the war.

Comparative bargaining power

The political process is essentially a bargaining process. When the LTTE is powerful and influential, pro-LTTE groups and other Tamil separatist groups are unfairly advantaged over the Muslims, the Sinhalese and the others. Often Tamil separatist groups threaten separation in the event their demands were not met. This threat is possible only because of the powerful LTTE as there is no other way to separate. This threat does another thing. It puts an additional weight on the bargaining power of Tamil separatists. Unless the Muslims, the Sinhalese and the others are also backed by a similar armed group like the LTTE, their demands are unfairly disadvantaged.

When there is no LTTE or when the LTTE is weakened, all parties can bargain on a level playing filed. Only then can a lasting political solution emerge. In order to weaken the LTTE, the government must win the war.

Safety of the actors

The mere presence of the LTTE poses a serious threat to the actors behind the political process. Dr Neelan was killed by the LTTE in 1999, Laxman in 2005, Loganathan in 2006, Amirthalingam in 1989, etc. Prof GL Pieris, Anandasangaree, etc. are under constant threat from the LTTE. Unless the people behind the political process are assured security and fearless conduct, they cannot produce a good political solution. This is possible only after substantially weakening the LTTE through war.

A solution at times of war not suitable for peaceful times

A political solution that may be found during times of war may not be suitable after the war. Suppose the government manages to defeat the LTTE substantially and establish government rule throughout the island, then the powers and privileges given to the LTTE will be naturally suppressed. Also a solution acceptable at one stage of the war is not suitable at another stage. A good example is the CFA. The government and the LTTE cannot go back to the status quo of the CFA.

Instead if a solution is found after defeating the LTTE, that will take care of more peaceful ground realities that would exist then. In the absence of further large scale war, it is unlikely that these ground conditions may change thereafter. That will keep the solution for a longer time.

Impermanency of all models

Another important thing most supporters of political solutions fail to understand is the impermanency of all political models that are born from political solutions. Subsequent governments, court decisions and circumstances can change what was set up under a political solution. This is the right of the people and there is nothing that can be done democratically to stop that.

Once again a solution arrived at under the presence of the LTTE or the IPKF will dissipate when those conditions are not present. This is why a political solution should be planted during calmer conditions.

Why restrict to race-based solutions?

The biggest trap in finding the right political solution is the race trap. Satisfying racial demands is a never ending process not to mention the new conflicts it brings about. There is no universal law saying that the solution to the problem should be based on racial demands. A solution should be found for the ailment that is ailing Sri Lanka. Trying to find a solution to Tamil aspirations by Tamils, Sinhalese, Muslims and others is a nonstarter. Everyone must benefit from a political solution and everyone must gain something additional owing to the political solution for it to be approved, protected and retained.

Unfortunately the LTTE is only capable of entertaining race-based models and therefore the LTTE should be defeated well in advance for a sustainable political solution to be discussed.

Northern - Southern Consensus verses a Sri Lankan Consensus

Clashes between the northern consensus and the southern consensus not to mention the clashes within hinder the political process. We have seen this all the time. The main reason for this is the LTTE. As long as the LTTE is powerful the north and the south will not be able to come to an agreement. When the LTTE is not present (substantially) that creates an atmosphere where the north and the south can find common ground without being bullied.

Most wars that ended up had political solutions after the wars were won. In 1945 there were separate lasting political agreements with Germany and Japan. After the Israeli-Arab wars, political solutions emerged. Same thing happened in the American Civil War. A peaceful atmosphere is essential to formulate this all important political solution.
- Sri Lanka Guardian