Georgia –A Lesson for Sri Lankan Leaders

by Saybhan Samat

(August 14, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) After the states in the Soviet Union gained their independence the US wooed, these former Soviet States to gain influence in them. The US in particular and the EU sought both political and economic relationship with them. In effect Western powers brazenly tried to get these former Soviet States out of the influence of Russia. The Russian Federation was in economic chaos just after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and could not do much to prevent the Western powers from bringing these states under the influence of their orbit.

Much to the disapproval of Russia, the US also planted missiles in two former pro-Russian countries viz. Poland and Czech. In addition Kosovo was granted independence hanging the carrot of entry into the EU, to Serbia. Western powers were also eyeing Lithuania, Estonia, the Ukraine, Latvia and Moldova to bring them towards their influence. All these states were in the back yard of the Russian Federation. Russia was very worried of the machinations of the Western powers not to meddle in her backyard. This was of no avail and on the eve of Georgia wanting to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Russia attacked the Georgian forces in South Ossetia sending their troops there and also air-attacked Georgia itself.

The Western powers already caught in a quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan could not come to the rescue of Georgia. Mr. Vladimir Putin the prime-minister of Russia seizing the opportunity to pound Georgia with air-strikes and military incursions sent an emphatic message of global consequences. Nato’s expansion in Eastern Europe and onwards to enhance former republics of the Soviet Union has been put on notice. The Kremlin in a no-nonsense message has conveyed that it is prepared to use force to halt any more adventures into its back yard.

Russia does not need to do what she did in Georgia to her other enclaves in the Ukraine, Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia because what is now happening in Georgia has already driven home a powerful message that what happens in these Russian enclaves, wherever they are, is for Russia to determine and no one else, Moscow’s operation in Georgia would serve as a deterrent to any other country wishing to come into the influence of the Western powers. Russia is the regional power and wants to be recognized so.

This also is a very good example for little Sri-Lanka. The consequences of ignoring India and moving too close to China and Pakistan is not to the liking of the regional power in South Asia, India. In no uncertain terms have the Indian leaders expressed this notion to President Mahinda Rajapakse. Like in 1987, there is every likelihood that India will intervene if we too try a “Georgia.” Neither China preoccupied with building her own economy nor will Pakistan burdened with political, economic and extremist problems come to our rescue.

Our relationships with India should be conducted in a wise, patient and prudent manner. Extremist views from the J.H.U. and the JVP must be sidelined by explaining the grave consequences of following an anti-Indian line to them.

The Rajapakse government without further delay must implement the 13th amendment. In their expected victory over the L.T.T.E , the government should display generosity, mercy and forgiveness. If the Rajapakse government shows bluster and bravado there will be very grave consequences to Sri-Lanka, may be even a Kosovo scenario may God forbid, emerge.
- Sri Lanka Guardian