It was apparent to anyone that this was a psywar operation carried out by the CIA in the hope of creating a divide between Al Qaeda and the Taliban and confusion in their ranks. This was such a crude attempt that nobody took it seriously.
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(July 03, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian) Is Osama bin Laden dying again?
That is the headline under which many skeptic online journals of the world have carried a story of the Time magazine that some CIA analysts believe that bin Laden is finally in his death bed due to a progressive deterioration of his kidneys. How did they come to this conclusion? On the basis of source reports regarding the kind of medicines he is taking. It is said that these medicines can help him for some time, but cannot prevent his death. If this report is to be believed, the count-down for his death has already started. At the same time, the magazine has added in its report that other CIA officials deny that any such report had been prepared in the CIA.
This report reminds one of a report carried by a French regional newspaper on September 23,2006, that according to the French intelligence, bin Laden had died after a severe attack of typhoid. According to the newspaper, the French intelligence got the information of bin Laden's death from its Saudi counterpart. Some weeks later, to the consternation of everybody, bin Laden came out with new audio messages, which tended to prove that he was definitely alive, though he may not be quite that kicking.
His earlier imminent death was reported by the CNN on October 26,2002, when it carried the following report: "- The editor-in-chief of a London-based Arab news magazine said a purported will it published Saturday was written late last year by Osama bin Laden, and shows "he's dying or he's going to die soon." U.S. intelligence officials say they have the purported will, but are not able to say if it is genuine. CNN has not been able to verify that the document is bin Laden's will. "He did write the will as someone saying good-bye," Hani Nakshabandi of the Arab news magazine Al Majalla told CNN. He said one of the magazine's reporters obtained the four-page document, said to be signed by the leader of the al Qaeda terrorist network and dated December 14, 2001, in Afghanistan. In the document, which was translated for CNN, the writer expresses disappointment with the Taliban, who harbored him in Afghanistan, speaks of betrayal, and urges his children to shun al Qaeda. "Even amongst the students of religion, only few stood their ground and fought, and the rest either surrendered or fled," the document says, referring to the Taliban, according to a translation for CNN. Despite the setbacks, the purported will says, "We will be victorious against the U.S. and the infidel West even if it takes tens of years." "My last advice is to the mujahedeen everywhere," the document says. "Take a breather and put aside for the time being, fighting the Jews and the Crusaders, and instead devote your efforts to purifying your groups from the agents and the cowards and those impostors who claim to be scholars amongst you."
It was apparent to anyone that this was a psywar operation carried out by the CIA in the hope of creating a divide between Al Qaeda and the Taliban and confusion in their ranks. This was such a crude attempt that nobody took it seriously.
It has been reported since the middle 1990s that bin Laden was suffering from a kidney deficiency, which he developed when he was living in Khartoum before 1996 and that he required periodic dialysis. There were even reports that he was undergoing the dialysis in a military hospital in Peshawar. The Saudi media had even quoted one of his wives living in Saudi Arabia as saying that he was suffering from a kidney deficiency.
There has been speculation from time to time as to how he is getting his dialysis done now. Police sources in Pakistan discount American claims that he is in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) because, according to them, he would not be able to get his dialysis done regularly in the FATA. They, therefore, surmise that if he has been managing to get his dialysis done, he must be in one of the cities of Pakistan such as Peshawar or Quetta and not in the remote tribal areas.
What is the present state of his kidneys? Is his death approaching? Only the doctors treating him will know the answers to these questions. If the CIA really has access to these doctors or their staff, why is it not using them to catch him or kill him by administering wrong medicines to him?
It is said that when he was the Prime Minister before October, 1999, Nawaz Sharif used to say that it would be in the interest of the international community that bin Laden died at the hands of his doctor rather than at the hands of the Americans. If he died at the hands of the Americans, he would become even a greater hero in the eyes of the Muslims. If he died at the hands of a doctor, the Ummah would forget him shortly thereafter.
Will bin Laden die definitively at least now---- to prove the CIA right?
Annexed is an article written by me on September 24,2006 on this subject..
(B.Raman, Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
HOW WORLD WILL KNOW OF BIN LADEN'S END?
by B.Raman
The ultimate denouement in the Osama bin Laden saga will come about in one of the following ways:
* He wins the jihadi war against the US-led coalition and is proclaimed either the Amir of the global Islamic Caliphate or at least of
* He is captured by the security forces of the US-led coalition or
* He is killed in a ground encounter or in an air strike by the US-led coalition or
* He dies a natural death, without his adversaries being aware of it.
The first possibility can be ruled out as of today. In the eventuality of his capture, the security forces responsible for his capture would know for certain. In the eventuality of his death in a ground encounter or an air strike, the proof will come in the form of the recovery of the dead body or from the interrogation of anyone of his associates captured during the encounter or by monitoring the communications of the survivors of the encounter or air strike. Where the dead body is not recovered, the intelligence agencies will be able to establish his death through the other means (interrogation of associates or communications interception ) with two-thirds certainty, but not a hundred per cent certainty.
If he dies a natural death, the indicators would come either from the doctor or doctors, who had treated him or from one of his associates, who was with him at the time of his death---if any of them could be captured by the security forces--- or from his relatives in
One had seen in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), where many Pakistani and other foreign jihadi terrorists operate, that the first indicator of the death of any foreign terrorist due to natural causes came from his home country when the local intelligence received information about the relatives holding a religious function to mark the death of the terrorist. Generally, reliable information about such religious functions being held in the home country are an important indicator of the death of the terrorist in a foreign land. Instances, where the relatives are told by a terrorist organisation to hold false religious functions to mislead the intelligence agencies and security forces are rare, but cannot be ruled out.
Bin Laden's health had been fragile for some years. He suffered from a kidney infection while he was living in
He suffered a splinter injury at the Tora Bora encounter in
When bin Laden was in the Binori complex, Khalid Sheikh Mohammad (KSM), who had orchestrated the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the
In August, 2002, reports about the presence of OBL in Binori and his medical treatment there stopped coming. Subsequent enquiries indicated that he had moved back to the tribal areas of
There were reports of a deterioration in his health due to the kidney condition in 2005. During the Friday prayers in some of the mosques of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), the Mullas started reciting prayers for the good health of Osama's son. This gave rise to strong speculation that bin Laden had died of a multiple organ failure arising from his renal problem.
Then suddenly, his audio messages started surfacing again since January 19,2006, but there were no video messages.Thus, his voice became the only indicator of his being alive. Since July, there has been no audio message either of current origin. Old pre-July messages of his continue circulating. Cut and paste versions of his pre-November,2004 video messages also continue circulating.
The speculation about his being alive or dead has again revived following the publication by L'Est Republicain, a French regional newspaper, on September 23,2006, of extracts from a document dated September 21,2006, of the French external intelligence agency stating that bin Laden died in Pakistani territory on August 23,2006, due to complications, including a paralysis, arising after a severe attack of typhoid. The information has been attributed to the Saudi intelligence sources, who reportedly came to know of it on September 4, 2006.The Saudi services are reportedly trying to verify the information.
The fact that the French Government has reportedly ordered an enquiry into how the newspaper came into possession of a classified document indicates that the document is probably genuine, but not necessarily the information contained in the document. One does not know how the Saudi services came to know of this information.
If bin Laden had died in Pakistani territory while undergoing medical treatment there should be doctors in
It is possible that the Saudi intelligence services picked up the information from bin Laden's relatives in
The policy of the Western intelligence agencies has been to presume that bin Laden is alive and kicking, until he is proved to be dead. That proof is yet to come. Any evidence coming from his relatives in
If the report about his death is incorrect, one can shortly expect another audio message from him to prove to his followers that he is alive.
(B.Raman, Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi,and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. )- Sri Lanka Guardian
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