' The SLMC will, contesting under the UNP banner dominate the Muslim vote. Both NUA and the Ashroff Congress have been steadily losing ground to the SLMC and the presence of the senior most SLMC leadership at the top of the UNP ballot should enable the SLMC to dominate the Muslim vote in much the same way as the UPFA will dominate the Sinhala vote. A 65% Muslim vote to the SLMC would immediately provide the UNP/SLMC combine then with little over 20% of the popular vote.’___________________________
by Harim Peiris
(May 08, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) The Eastern Provincial Council elections are around the corner and as Easterners and the rest of the nation await the outcome of the polls not much can be gained by speculating regarding its outcome. However the situation in the East raises issues that will remain long after the polls are over and pose challenges to the government at the centre and the winners of the provincial polls.
With regards the election, the regime’s UPFA/ TMVP alliance faces a formidable challenge from the UNP/SLMC combine. In a multi ethnic polity such as the East, with a majority of Tamil and Muslim people, the natural Sinhala constituency of the UPFA is in short supply. However, the UPFA can be counted on to easily win a significant majority of the Sinhala vote in the Ampara and Trincomalee Districts, which make up about 23% of the provincial electorate. Assuming a near 80% of the Sinhala vote goes to the UPFA, it immediately bags about 18% of the popular vote.
The SLMC will, contesting under the UNP banner dominate the Muslim vote. Both NUA and the Ashroff Congress have been steadily losing ground to the SLMC and the presence of the senior most SLMC leadership at the top of the UNP ballot should enable the SLMC to dominate the Muslim vote in much the same way as the UPFA will dominate the Sinhala vote. A 65% Muslim vote to the SLMC would immediately provide the UNP/SLMC combine then with little over 20% of the popular vote.
The above would mean that the election would be decided by the Tamil vote in the three districts and how this would go is anyone’s guess. The TMVP dominated the recent Batticalore District local polls, but that was in a pretty much one horse race, where the UNP did not contest. Mr.Ranil Wickremasinghe beat out President Rajapaksa in the Batticaloa District in the Presidential elections of November 2005, but that was sans a Tamil candidate and much water has flowed under the bridge since then. However Ranil’s win in Batticaloain 2005 was despite the LTTE boycott and the Karuna Group (the TMVP’s predecessor organization)’s endorsement of the Rajapaksa candidacy, showing that the Tamil voter of the Batticaloa District bucked both the LTTE’s boycott and the Karuna / TMVP’s endorsement of his opponent, to vote for Ranil. While the TMVP can still be expected to deliver a victory in Batticaloa, not least because it is still armed and has state patronage, while its opponents have neither, its appeal amongst the Tamils of the Trincomalee and Ampara Districts are a greater unknown and the divisions within the TMVP between old “Col”.Karuna loyalists and the now dominant Pillayan faction may also be to its disadvantage amongst the Tamil polity in the East.
Even a relatively free poll would hence pose a significant challenge to the regime with its success in the East, dependent upon the Tamil voter and whether the Tamils of the East would be electorally rewarding the “liberators of the East”.
However significant issues will remain in the Eastern Province long after the dust settles on this election. First among them would be to resolving the simmering ethnic tensions that exist amongst the populace and which have been exacerbated by the elections. Tensions exist not only between the Sinhala and Tamil people, especially in the Trincomalee District, but also between Muslims and Tamils in Batticaloa and even Ampara.
The Provincial Council system itself is under serious challenge, with much of the powers of the Province wrested back to the Centre, through political and bureaucratic manoeuvrings. The lack of revenue raising capability for a provincial administration means that in the all important area of finance it is totally dependent on the Government at the Centre and the ability to deliver to the populace accordingly constrained. Given that the Government touts the 13th amendment to the constitution and the provincial councils as the cornerstone or bedrock of its devolution goals and solution to the ethnic problem, the success of a provincial administration in whether the North or the East or both would be important in enhancing the credibility of this proposition.
The Eastern rising or the rehabilitation and reconstruction program under the direction of the Senior Presidential Advisor and the Ministry of Nation Building would have to both proceed at a pace and with an inclusive process that takes into account community sensitivities and does no harm to communal harmony while desisting from gerrymandering with the demographic patterns in the East.
The above electoral and socio political situation in the East poses significant challenges to the regime in the East and we can only wish the political leadership of various political hues the very best as they seek to navigate these challenges to create a truly better future for all the peoples of the East.
(The writer was an advisor to and spokesman for former President Kumaratunga from 2001 to 2005).
- Sri Lanka Guardian
Post a Comment