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by Jehan Perera
(May 06, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) Those visiting Trincomalee in the east even for a short time would be impressed by the evidence of developmental work taking place that is changing the landscape. The most obvious work that is being done is the reconstruction of the road network.
Large tracts of the highway connecting the town to Colombo are partially closed off on one side, as the road is being widened and resurfaced. This gives rise to clouds of red dust and to slow moving traffic. There are also evident signs of new buildings coming up. The construction of a new market in Trincomalee town will be one of its crowning jewels.
Trincomalee would appear to be a success story of the government's strategy of clearing out the east of the LTTE, restoring normalcy and unleashing the forces of development that will improve the lives of the people. There was general agreement that the security situation had improved in the past several months. The strengthened presence of the security forces after the declaration of elections has also contributed to the lessening of incidents of violence.
The improving conditions of security have also contributed to the possibilities of doing a larger quantum of development work. The remainder of the tsunami reconstruction work, for which there was a massive outpouring of international generosity, is taking place at a faster pace, mostly by NGOs. In these circumstances there is likely to be a sense of confidence within government that the forthcoming provincial elections will yield victory to the government and to its ally, the TMVP.
However, the problems that continue to exist in Trincomalee, and which can go against the government, cannot be underestimated. Despite the flurry of developmental activity, Trincomalee remains a very poor town, which does not befit the capital city of a province. Most of the shops are single storey ones, with a battered appearance. Likewise most of the houses have a run down appearance. The major investments presently being made on the roads, public buildings and other infrastructure, including massive electrical power generation projects, will only yield their fruits to the people in the years to come, but not immediately.
But even more significant than the continuing poverty of the region is the absence of peaceful conditions and prospects for peace in the foreseeable future. In the absence of a peace process between the government and LTTE, there is a sense that the improvement in the security situation is a reversible one, and that the dip in violence will be temporary. The intensity of the fighting at Muhamalai in the north, and the shifting of the theatre of military confrontation from Madhu in the west of the LTTE-controlled Wanni region to the government-controlled Weli Oya in the east which adjoins the Trincomalee district suggests how rapidly the theatre of war can shift.
Strategic area
With its internationally strategic harbour and also being the connecting district between the Northern Province and the Eastern Province, Trincomalee is a strategic area. As the northernmost district of the Eastern Province, which borders the LTTE-dominated parts of the Northern Province, the possibility of infiltration by the LTTE is high. This may also explain the lesser visibility of the anti-LTTE and pro-eastern TMVP in Trincomalee.
Unlike in the Batticaloa and sections of the Ampara districts of the east which are the strongholds of the Eastern Tamil identity, and where the TMVP presence is marked, in Trincomalee it is the presence of the Sri Lankan military is marked. This suggests that the TMVP will be less well positioned to in Trincomalee to take advantage of their position of being an armed group to intimidate their political rivals.
One of the most controversial features of the forthcoming elections in the east is that the TMVP continues to retain its weapons despite opposition and civil society protests. This means that, by definition, the elections are seriously flawed at the outset, and cannot be considered to be either free or fair. The basic requirement for a free and fair election is that all the contesting parties are unarmed and not in a position to intimidate both their political rivals as well as voters who will be fearful to cross the path of the armed party. On the other hand, it is widely accepted that so long as the LTTE is armed, it will seek to destroy any serious Tamil political rival, who therefore need to keep their arms if only for self defense.s
Reports from the east, particularly from the Tamil dominated parts of the Batticaloa and Ampara districts indicate that the TMVP has been able to subject their political opponents to a high degree of intimidation. Although TMVP candidates canvass for votes without the open use of guns, the power of the guns they keep behind the scene and are prepared to use is also known to the people and to their political competitors. In parts of the east, in Batticaloa and Amparai, the TMVP's posters are pasted all over while those of rival political parties are barely to be seen, and when seen have been blacked out.
By way of contrast, in the Trincomalee district, the public campaigning on the part of all contesting parties, including the TMVP, appears to be at a low level. As a result, the voters in the district are less likely to be intimidated by the TMVP and will have a relative autonomy in choosing for whom they will vote. Nevertheless the fear psychosis among the Tamil voters in the district is so high that they did not wish to say who their preferred party was, unlike the Muslims and Sinhalese voters who are more forthright in their expressions.
Complex decision
The decision about which party to vote for is likely to be especially complex for the Tamil voters in the east. The improved security situation, the military upper hand obtained by the government and the proliferation of development projects would weigh the balance in favour of the government. A recent public opinion poll by the Centre for Policy Alternatives has highlighted the fact that the economic difficulties facing the people are the biggest problem for all ethnic communities. At the same time the survey also showed that the issue of a peaceful settlement is especially important to the Tamil people who are the main victims of the war and the human rights violations that result from it.
The long stalling on the part of the government to come up with a credible power sharing proposal to the ethnic conflict and restart the peace process with the LTTE, coupled with slow military progress in the north, points to the possibility of the war being extended indefinitely. During the course of the escalated conflict for the past two years, they have been subjected to large scale displacement and other human rights violations, including child recruitment, abduction of women and political assassinations. The motivation for the Tamil voters of the east to cast their votes against the government can be strong.
On the other hand, the traditional rivalry between the Tamil and Muslim communities for dominance in the east has also surfaced during the present election campaign. In the absence of a comprehensive population survey of both the Northern and Eastern provinces, there remains a doubt as to the actual population composition of these two provinces. At the last full census that took place in 1981, the Tamils were shown to be the largest community in the Eastern Province, followed by the Muslims. It is now believed that the Muslims are the largest. This means that the post of Chief Minister of the Eastern Province is within their reach.
A flawed electoral process that combines intimidation of voters and rival political parties by the armed cadres of the TMVP with the government misuse of state resources as already reported by election monitors could lead to a high level of Muslim discontent. With the government bringing in Iran to the centre stage of the country’s foreign policy, the potential for the Muslim population to seek solidarity with their co-religionists internationally in the face of unjust deprivation is now higher than ever. Whoever wins the election and leads the Eastern Province will have a major responsibility to heal the wounds of a politically and ethnically decisive election which is being held under abnormal conditions.
- Sri Lanka Guardian
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