Sun rise in the Eastern Sri Lanka

“The ultra-nationalist Janata Vimukti Peramuna (JVP) has announced its decision to contest the elections as an independent party but it is hard to predict the future course of its actions given its shifting loyalties in previous elections. Its scattered support base might secure a seat or two for them but JVP want a fair share of credit from the government for regaining the East.”
__________________________

by Anjali Sharma

(April 05, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian) By holding local government elections in the e astern province of Sri Lanka, President Mahinda Rajapaksa has taken the first step towards fulfilling his promise of ushering in participatory democracy in Batticaloa, Amparai and Trincomalee which suffered heavily under LTTE’s rule for two decades. A year ago, none in the East thought of a life free from LTTE dominance, leave alone exercising their voting rights in a democratic manner. The leader of the victorious Thamil Makka l Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP), Pillaiyaan himself admitted that “he is casting his vote for the first time.”

The international monitoring group, People’s Action for the Free and Fair Elections ,
(PAFFREL) has also given a clean chit to the elections held for the eight Pradeshiya Sabhas and Batticaloa Municipal Council. Apart from stray incidents of violence, the elections were, by and large, free from any electoral malpractices. The people are happy with the election results as majority believes that the East should be governed by people from the East only. It is essential to keep their identities distinct from those of the South and North. The victory of the political wing of the breakaway LTTE group, TMVP whose members are from the East, therefore, holds great promise.

But the future holds challenges as well. The people trusted a group that has practically no experience in self-governance. It is a group with too many internal factions whose founding member Col. Karuna is currently in prison for traveling on forged documents in
Britain, a group with countless instances of human rights violations and recruitment of child soldiers to its credit , and lastly, it is also a group which has refused to disarm itself.
Democracy with arms introduces a fear factor in t he political system which eventually overshadows essential components of the democratic process viz. discussion and debate .
The group must realize immense responsibility it has been entrusted with to prove its ‘governing’ credentials. They have to measure up to people’s expectations.

Demographic Composition of the East

The eastern Sri Lanka is a composite mix of three major communities’ viz. Tamils, Muslims and Sinhalese inhibiting the three main districts of Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Ampara. The Tamils are a majority in Trincomalee which also has a significant numbers of Sinhalese closely followed by the Muslims. In Batticaloa , the Tamils and Muslims are dominant. Ampara is Muslim majority district having a sizeable number of the Sinhalese and the Tamils. Overall, Tamils followed by the Muslims and the Sinhalese domina te the Eastern province. Muslims and Sinhalese occupy the second and third position respectively. The community-wise and district-wise breakup of the population of the province based on the census figures of 2001 are:

The table shows that being a majority community, the Tamils hold a key to success. But as the choices before them are too many, the election results can also be influenced by the voting preferences of the Muslims and the Sinhalese. Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal cannot be considered as the only choice of the Tamil community as United National Party
(UNP) whose main support base is in Ampara will try to cut their vote banks . In Ampara also, UNP will have to share its victory with S ri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) in case of their tie-up with each other. In Batticaloa, the recent elections have revealed preference for Sri Lanka Freedom Party-backed TMVP. Lastly, in Trincomalee, the gap is too narrow between the three communities to predict the outcome of the elections with accuracy. The rest of the population is Burghers and others whose verdict has no meaningful impact on the elections.

In fact, the multi-ethnic composition of the eastern provinces has made it difficult for the political parties contesting elections to decide and announce the nam e of the Chief Ministerial candidate beforehand. Having had a bitter experience of a previous Provincial
Council election where the Chief Minister had not only unilaterally declared independence but also conducted talks with the LTTE leaders without the go vernment’s permission before fleeing to India, the new political dispensation cannot afford to repeat the same mistakes.

Political Parties in the East

This time, there is going to be a huge rush of political parties to get themselves register ed for the forthcoming polls on May 10, given the recent experience of the smooth and relatively peaceful local elections. After declaring its stand that it is not going to give undue legitimacy to the PC elections in the East if the government plans to unleash violence against opposition candidates , the main opposition party UNP has finally decided to contest polls. Earlier also, UNP boycotted the local elections to protest against the candidature of the government -backed and fully armed TMVP group. If the UNP stick to its earlier stand then it will be its 20 th consecutive defeat under its current chairman Mr.Ranil Wickremesinghe who also seems to be permanent. Some analysts are of the view that in fact, UNP’s withdrawal from the local elections led to the victory of the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) -backed TMVP. Had UNP decided otherwise, the picture would have been different.

The circumstances are however, pointing towards a different direction. UNP cannot afford to let go of this opportunity because there are a few factors that may help in restoring its winning streak. It has the support of the sizeable Muslim population in the eastern town of Ampara. UNP can also tie up with the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress
(SLMC) in the elections which has won more than 80 % of Muslim votes in the local elections. Though the ruling alliance is also trying to woo the Muslim party but the prospects of their coming together are not bright as SLMC has demanded the Chief Minister’s post. For now, SLMC has decided to contest elect ions independently. It is likely to cut into UNP’s support base which is largely Muslim.

The ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) on the other hand, with all state paraphernalia and coalition partners intact , will prove to be a strong contender along with TMVP that has just won an absolute majority in the local elections. The gun-toting candidates of TMVP had earlier succeeded in intimidating rival candidates and the voters. The situation will remain the same this time too with only difference being the presence of strong rivals (read, UNP and JVP) to deal with. The decision of the government to remove the Special Task Force from the sensitive East to the restive North has met with stiff opposition as it is feared that the absence of law enforcing machine ry would help the ex-LTTE group to flex its muscles. JVP has already called for disarming
TMVP as they fear that the group will use its weapons once again to win the elections. TMVP’s victory would have no meaning if it has to resort to arms and violence to protect itself against a LTTE onslaught. The responsibility to protect candidates during elections is that of the government of Sri Lanka and candidates with guns would only present a negative image of the establishment in front of the international obse rvers.

The ultra-nationalist Janata Vimukti Peramuna (JVP) has announced its decision to contest the elections as an independent party but it is hard to predict the future course of its actions given its shifting loyalties in previous elections. Its scattered support base might secure a seat or two for them but JVP want a fair share of credit from the government for regaining East . For JVP it might be a daunting task to battle the UPFA/TMVP combine alone in forthcoming polls but the option of boycotting elections is an equally tough proposition. Above all, JVP has to lend credibility to its stand of supporting the demerger of the North and the East which it successfully engineered through the Supreme Court.

LTTE has already asked its parliamentary proxy Tamil National Alliance (TNA) to refrain from contesting elections in the East. The prospects of loosing elections altogether in a Tamil majority area in the absence of vote -rigging opportunities might have compelled them to take such a stand. The issue is not that simple though the defeat in a
Tamil area will undoubtedly lower the prestige of the group which claims to be the sole representative of the Tamil community worldwide. Their participation in the elections would also tantamount to their acceptance of the demerger of the North and the East which they opposed tooth and nail . More importantly, LTTE from the very beginning had ruled out accepting any arrangements under the India-backed 13th Amendment of the Constitution.

Establishment Concerns

The provincial elections are not going to be a smooth road for the Mahinda Rajapaksa government. There are a few problem areas that would have to be recognized and addressed by the government before embarking on an election mode. The first concern is ensuring peaceful elections which are free and fair also. In fact, only free and fair polls can ensure peaceful elections. Given the turbulent past of the contestants, such a possibility seems to be a far cry. With LTTE still maintaining isolated pockets in the eastern areas and TMVP refusing to lay down its arms, violence will play an important part in the final outcome of the elections.

The pre-poll violence will inevitably lead to intimidation, disappearances and assassinations which, in turn, will generate a wides pread criticism from the international community. The release of US State Department Human Rights report on Sri Lanka had already evoked an emotional outburst from the c oncerned authorities in Lanka. This time, the Rajapaksa will have to be careful about its Human Rights record as the time for the renewal of GSP+ agreement by the European Union (EU) government is approaching fast on which the livelihood of more than 2 million families depend.

In May elections, security concerns will be of paramount import ance. It has constantly been criticised by the opposition parties for not providing enough security cover to the candidates. The government’s excuse of engaging the troops in the battle with the LTTE in the North doesn’t go down well with the opposition.

The government will have to take adequate steps to meet this challenging scenario. Even after the elections, the government will have an onerous task to ensure the stability of the victorious alliance.

Conclusion

The Provincial Council elections have evinced a keen interest in the internal political bargaining taking place in Sri Lanka . UPFA-TMVP followed by SLMC with or without
UNP and JVP trailing closely behind will continue to be the major contenders. The prospects of success of the moderate Tamil political parties will remain limited as some of them like Eelam People’s Democratic Party (EPDP) have decided against joining any political alliance. As the elections are not going to be peaceful this time, the Mahinda Rajapaksa regime will have a tough time ahead arranging for the security of the candidates and the voters alike.

Above all, the people’s expectations are at stake in these elections. After serving 20 years under the undemocratic rule of LTTE, they are now waiting for someone who can bring about a positive change in their lives. They are eagerly waiting for the government that primarily comprise of the people from the East and work exclusively for them. Only th en can “Nagenahira Navodaya” (“Dawn of the East” reconstruction program sponsored by the government) become a reality.

(Anjali Sharma is an Associate Fellow in Observer Research Foundation)
- Sri Lanka Guardian