“The ruling UPFA promised the post of Chief Minister to both Pillayan alias Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan and SLMC renegade M.L.A.M.Hisbulla. Now the agreement is that the party which gains the largest number of seats would get the top post. The TMVP is a strong contender against the UNP-SLMC alliance. The United People’s Freedom Alliance electoral success would largely be dependent on the success of the TMVP.”_______________________________
(April 06, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) The unique ethnic equation in the Eastern Province is a double- edged sword. It is a strength, yet could also be a liability.
To put it into perspective, three main communities live in the province in equal proportions. The ethnic composition of the Eastern province is Sinhalese: 25%, Sri Lankan Tamils 41% and Muslims 32%, according to the census in 1981, which is the last time a population survey was conducted Island wide.
This unique ethnic composition coupled with the conflict of interest of communities creates a fatal mixture for an ethnic conflagration. Yet, handled correctly, the east could be the guiding light for a new phase of multiculturalism in the country.
Certain emerging factors are further compounding this already complex status quo among communities in the province.
Muslims, who have hitherto been largely the spectators of the ethnic conflict, are becoming increasingly assertive.
The presence of Muslims in the east has long been downplayed. Yet, the newly assertive and numerically expanding Muslim community now demands that their status in the province be negotiated.
The Muslim religious leadership in Amapara earlier tried to mediate a tie up between the SLMC and its breakaway faction, the National Unity Alliance.
The objective was to ensure that the block vote of the community is not divided, but, the talks collapsed as both parties insisted on contesting under their party symbols.
The objective was to ensure that the block vote of the community is not divided, but, the talks collapsed as both parties insisted on contesting under their party symbols.
But, Last week, the SLMC appeared to clinch the best possible deal with the United National Party. Accordingly, the SLMC would contest under the Elephant Symbol, but three SLMC stalwarts would lead the UNP in three districts.
Resigned
SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem, Party Chairman Basheer Segudawood and General Secretary Hasen Ali resigned from parliament to contest the up coming elections in the east. The trio signed nomination papers on Wednesday after attending prayers.
The SLMC-UNP agreement is apparently a win-win deal for both parties. The SLMC would draw the majority of Muslim voters while the UNP’s credentials as a party more accommodative of the concerns of Tamils would attract a sizeable amount of Tamil voters who don’t want to tow the line of the TMVP. The election boycott by the Tamil National Alliance also stands to the UNP’s gain.
Both the UNP and the JVP dodged the recently held local government elections in Batticaloa District. The UNP rejected the results, staged a protest in front of the Election Commissioner’s office and demanded that the Pillayan faction be disarmed.
Yet, the up- coming election for the Provincial Council in the East appears to be too big to boycott. Hence the painstaking negotiations and intense horse trading to forge alliances.
The ruling UPFA promised the post of Chief Minister to both Pillayan alias Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan and SLMC renegade M.L.A.M.Hisbulla.
Now the agreement is that the party which gains the largest number of seats would get the top post. The TMVP is a strong contender against the UNP-SLMC alliance.
The United People’s Freedom Alliance electoral success would largely be dependent on the success of the TMVP.
Cid test
The upcoming polls will also be an acid test for the TMVP which came of age with its win in the Batticaloa mini polls. Yet, make no mistake. The Batticaloa polls were a one horse race, which was boycotted by all other major political parties other than the SLMC. For the moment, the TMVP is a party based in Batticaloa, where Tamils amount to approximately 70 percent of the total population, according to the census of 1981.
The other two districts in the province have a more equitable ethnic composition.
For instance, the ethnic ratio in Trincomalee District is Sinhalese (33%), Tamils (34%) and Muslims (29%). The ethnic ratio in Amparai District is Muslims ( 41%) Sinhalese(38%) and Tamils( 20%) The voting pattern in the Eastern Province is heavily influenced by race.
Yet, Sinhalese vote in the east will be shared by the UNP, SLFP and JVP, and the latter with its nationalistic rhetoric would compete will SLFP for the more radicalized Sinhalese vote.
The SLMC targets the block vote of Muslims, while UNP would try to win back its traditional Sinhalese voters. Both communities share reservations about the territorial ambitions of the Tamils.
The notion of Muslims as a distinctive ethnic community has repeatedly been undermined when Tamils took the upper hand, the most recent example being the peace talks between the Wickremesinghe Administration and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, when the Tigers opposed the SLMC demand for a separate Muslim delegation for the peace talks.
The apparent reasoning was that the LTTE fought the way to negotiation table whereas the Muslim leadership cooperated with the Sinhalese majority government. The recent emergence of jihadist groups in the East is also viewed as a response to Tamil hegemony in the province.
One could only hope that this election would help dilute these glaring differences among the three main communities and be a precursor to new phase of multiculturism in the province. - Sri Lanka Guardian
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