Military offensive in Lanka: LTTE is on the backfoot

“The wild card in the pack is the LTTE proxy, TNA which is unlikely to contest. If it decides otherwise, the Tamil votes will get split further to the advantage of Muslim parties. When asked recently if the east could have a Tamil Chief Minister, Basil Rajapakse the Chief Administrator of the region had no answer. The Sinhala chauvinist JVP-JHU is also likely to test the waters in the east, making next month’s Eastern Provincial election a mini national election.”
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by Major-Gen Ashok K. Mehta (retd.)

(April 15, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) Three months after the Sri Lankan Government (SLG) abrogated the Norway-brokered 2002 Cease Fire Agreement, local body elections have been held in Batticaloa, one of the three districts in the East, against the backdrop of the continued military offensive in the North.

The far-from-perfect elections were won by the TMVP, a breakaway faction of the LTTE which is armed and loosely allied with the government. The party was created by Karuna and after yet another internal feud, Pillayan has emerged as the true leader while Karuna is in a British jail facing charges of fraud.

Two Opposition parties, the LTTE-supported TNA and main opposition UNP, boycotted the elections on grounds of insecurity. The TMVP which won eight out of the nine seats it contested has been allowed to carry arms for self-defence against the LTTE. Municipal elections in Trincomalee and Amparai were held earlier and could not be held in Batticaloa till the LTTE bases in the district were captured by the security forces last year.

In a loosely formed alliance, moderate Tamil groups like the EPRLF, the EPDP, and PLOTE secured impressive number of votes but were obviously no match for the armed alliance. Showcasing the election as a victory for democracy and the military offensive against terrorism, President Mahinda Rajapakse swore in all the 101 office-bearers of the nine local bodies of Batticaloa. Surprisingly, there was neither any mention of Prabhakaran or Karuna nor any interference from the LTTE during the elections.

The military offensive in the North is already six months old but barring minor successes on the ground in Mannar, it has made no headway in other sectors of Vavuniya, Weli Oya and Jaffna. Some reports suggest that a mechanised force of tanks and APCs is preparing to assault Elephant Pass. The Army has claimed it has killed more than 2500 Tigers this year for less than 200 of their own soldiers.

Undeniably the LTTE is in a corner with serious damage to its offensive capacity. As the supply chains have been badly indicted, Tigers are facing a shortage of ammunition and war-like stores. The biggest weakness is the absence of an antidote against relentless attacks by MiG 27s, and soon, MiG 29 jets.

Government forces have never before enjoyed military and moral ascendancy over the LTTE as now. But the way the Army is fighting this war, it could take two to three years before Prabhakaran can be brought to his knees. Tigers have a remarkable reputation for bouncing back. And the government does not have an infinite window for crushing terrorism. The LTTE has offered to return to the peace talks if the current offensive is halted.

In the wake of the recent visit of Lt Gen Sarath Fonseka to India, Tigers spokesperson has accused Delhi of committing yet another historic blunder by encouraging SLG’s military offensive and genocide of Tamils. It is well known that India is helping with intelligence and defensive military equipment.

According to an unconfirmed report, Pakistan, a long-time and reliable supplier of military equipment to Sri Lanka, is clandestinely siphoning military hardware to the LTTE also. This double dealing is not unusual in Sri Lanka’s civil war.

The EU delegation recently in Sri Lanka as part of the co-chairs had sought access for Norway and other co chairs to the LTTE in Kilinochchi which the government is loath to provide. The war in the North has taken a severe toll on human rights. According to one estimate, the number of IDPs is 1 million.

The International Eminent Persons Group has wound up its business complaining that there is lack of cooperation from the courts. The international community is applying gentle pressure through the US and the EU withdrawing the General System of Preferences (GSP) on tea and textiles.

The government is being asked to accept a UN Special Envoy to monitor human rights, now that Scandinavian Monitoring Mission has been withdrawn. Article 99 of the UN Charter is the ultimate weapon of political and economic sanctions to bring the warring parties back to the negotiating table. Unless the US and India work to a common agenda to end the war, the battle of attrition and human rights violations in the North will get bloodier in the days to come.

The SLG has moved swiftly to hold provincial elections in the East (10th May) last organised by the IPKF 20 years ago. Elections in the East are a big vindication for the Rajapakse brothers’ pursuit of a military solution. The victory in the East followed the delegitimisation of the merged North East Province by the Supreme Court.

Surprisingly, GoC East, Maj Gen P. Pannipittiya, under whose command the East was liberated, was sacked recently and had to rush to court to restore his security and residence. The last elections in the East were held on 19 November 1988 enabled by the IPKF. Like now, no elections were held in the North but the 36 seats were represented in the combined NEPC in Trincomalee under Chief Minister Varatharaja Perumal from Jaffna.

Trincomalee 10, Batticaloa 11 and Amparai 14 account for an aggregate of 35 seats in the East. The demography in the east has been the victim of colonisation, cartography and conflict. That is why Sinhalese will not hesitate to say that more Tamils live outside the North East than in the so-called homeland.

The North is predominantly Tamil (90 per cent) after 90,000 Muslims were evicted by the LTTE in 1990. In the East the picture is different. In Batticaloa and Amparai, Tamils are 48 per cent and Muslims and Sinhalese 42 per cent. In Trincomalee the three communities are almost equally one third each. The combined percentage in the East works out to Muslims and Sinhalese, 60 per cent and Tamils, 40 per cent. In a merged North East, Tamils would make for 70 per cent and Muslims and Sinhalese 30 per cent of the population. Demerger means that demography rules out a Tamil Chief Minister for the East.

This disqualification is buttressed by vote bank and provincial politics. In Trincomalee, Tamils at best can win three seats and in Batticaloa and Amparai together, another 9 to 10 seats, whereas Muslims and Sinhalese together would garner 21 to 22 seats. With the present disposition of alliances, TMVP with or without the ruling alliance would bag six to seven seats but chances are that the SLMC with its ally UNP could emerge as the single largest party. But TMVP claims its tally will be 17 seats: Batticaloa 10, Trincomalee 4 and Amparai 3. This is possible only if the Sinhalese don’t vote. The moderate Tamil alliance of EPRLF, PLOTE and TULF will also be in the fray. EPDP may join later.

The wild card in the pack is the LTTE proxy, TNA which is unlikely to contest. If it decides otherwise, the Tamil votes will get split further to the advantage of Muslim parties. When asked recently if the east could have a Tamil Chief Minister, Basil Rajapakse the Chief Administrator of the region had no answer. The Sinhala chauvinist JVP-JHU is also likely to test the waters in the east, making next month’s Eastern Provincial election a mini national election.

It is early days for electoral battles but value added to elections will be the complete implementation of devolution under the 13th Amendment, including financial powers. Pending will be three questions: will the east get asymmetric devolution or will the other seven provinces become equal beneficiaries? Will the JVP allow the devolution to take place? And what will be the framework for an interim Administrative Council for the North?

Elections in the East are a positive first step towards power sharing. The SLG could, but won’t, seize the political initiative to end the war by giving the LTTE a last time-bound chance to rejoin the peace talks. Elections without the LTTE are possible. But lasting peace without the LTTE is a pipe dream, as Sunday’s suicide attack near Colombo has shown.
- Sri Lanka Guardian